Rookie Running Backs

by Dave Gardner on May 23, 2008 4:38 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

Unlike the quarterback position, rookie running backs -- especially those taken on the first day of the NFL Draft -- are expected to contribute almost immediately. While none of the running backs in this class are expected to have the kind of impact that Adrian Peterson (1,341 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, 12 touchdowns) had last season as a rookie, many should be expected to perform similarly to how Bills running back Marshawn Lynch did as a rookie last year: 1,115 yards (4.0 ypc) and 7 touchdowns.

Here, I'll outline the running backs from the 2008 draft class I think will have the most impact this season:

1. Rashard Mendenhall: Easily one of the most electric backs in college football last season, Mendenhall enters a Pittsburgh team that is pretty thin at running back. Mendenhall has more talent and a wider range of abilities than incumbent starter Willie Parker, who despite leading the league in rushing before suffering a broken leg last season, was not performing exceptionally (he only scored two touchdowns). Mendenhall could end up being the starter, with Parker as a change-of-pace back before too long.

2. Matt Forte: It's no secret that the Bears were not pleased with the performance of former fourth-overall pick, Cedric Benson, last season. Much to his dismay, Matt Forte has looked good in mini-camps so far. A favorite of New Era Scouting, Forte could be the Thomas Jones in the running back rotation before too long -- moving Benson to the bench save for about 5-10 carries a game.

3. Kevin Smith: The Lions were rumored to be looking for a running back as early as round one. With the dearth of talent at the position, it would not have been a reach. They chose instead to take an offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus (Boston College), selecting Smith with the first pick in the third round. However, Smith will be running in a similar offense to the one he played in at UCF because new Lions offensive coordinator Jim Colleto worked with his UCF offensive coordinator, Tim Salem, at Purdue. That, coupled with Lions coaches wanting Tatum Bell to have only about 10-15 carries a game, bode well for Smith.

Now I know some of you are wondering how Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart didn't make this list, but that's because they are both going to be battling very strong starters on their respective teams. McFadden will be behind 1,000-yard rusher Justin Fargas and competing with first-round talent Michael Bush. Stewart, while battling a foot injury, will try to unseat DeAngelo Williams, who averaged five yards a pop last season.

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Pitt.

The Steelers strike me as the sort of franchise that has too much respect for contributing players to unseat them unless they’re ineffective. In other words, I see Mendenhall getting fewer touches than you envision if Parker is back healthy.

I like Smith and Forte too (I have a soft spot for smaller school workhorse with underrated skill) and I hope they get a chance to break out. If I had to guess, I’d say Forte ends up being the most productive of the bunch because Benson is on the outs, Matt’s actually a very solid player and Chicago is a great place to be an RB.

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by ejruiz on May 23, 2008 7:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't understand the logic...

You say Mendenhall is more likely to start than McFadden or Stewart because the Steelers are “thin at running back”? Willie Parker went to the Pro Bowl the past two seasons, and has averaged over 1300 yards a year since he took over in his second pro season. Najeh Davenport came in after Parker broke his leg and added another 500 yards and half a dozen touchdowns last season. They are 27 and 28 years old respectively. They added Mewelde Moore an excellant young 3rd down back this year, and have a sleeper talent in Gary Russell who is still just 21 years old. I think they finished just behind the Vikings in rushing last year. That is a much deeper corps than either McFadden or Stewart face. Mendenhall may well be the best back drafted this year, but it seems very unlikely he will be the earliest contributor.

by robert ethan on May 23, 2008 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

...just for comparison sake...

Willie Parker is a year younger than Justin Fargas and has double the career yardage in one less season. Fargas also missed significant time in the past due to knee injuries. Parker has rushed for as many or more yards in each of the last three seasons as D’Angelo Williams has in his NFL career.

Gary Russell and Michael Bush both came out in 2007 after having missed the entire 2006 season at the college level. In 2005, both rushed for over 1100 yards, with Russell averaging 6.0 yards per carry (splitting time with L. Maroney) and Bush averaging 5.5 ypc. Bush had 5 more TDs (23-18) on 50 more carries. Both averaged a bit over 10 ypc as receivers and scored one more TD that way. Bush missed the 2006 season due a horrific leg injury, which also kept him inacitve in his first pro season. Russell missed 2006 for academic reasons, but was strong in training camp and got into a few games at the end of the year. Russell is 2 1/2 years younger than Bush, without much wear on his body and no serious injuries.

From an objective standpoint the players you mentioned as standing in the way of McFadden and Stewart seem far less reliable and certainly far less productive than the Steeler backs. That isn’t even taking into consideration Najeh Davenport who has been a reasonabley productive NFL backup for the past 6 or 7 years, and Mewelde Moore who was the #1 or #2 back in Minnesota for the past 4 seasons. I would think that Davenport and Moore probably have more total yards from scrimmage than either Fargas or Williams in their career, as well.

by robert ethan on May 23, 2008 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...more information...( than you ever wanted to know...;)

Davenport and Fargas have about the same career total yards in the NFL. Najeh is 29, Justin 28. But Davenport will likely be the Steeler fullback this year. Mewelde Moore and D’Angelo Williams are both 25, with Moore having more than twice the total yards as an NFL player to this point in his career.

by robert ethan on May 23, 2008 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No such thing as too much information

Thanks for your comments, Robert. I understand that Parker has been a productive back in his career, but he didn’t impress me as a runner last year. I think that he is an off-tackle runner who will be complemented well by Rashard Mendenhall. With the shaky state of the Steelers’ offensive line, I would be inclined to say that they will need a back like Mendenhall who can find holes.

Obviously Williams has only been in the league for a couple of years, so his career yardage isn’t all that high. The Panthers inexplicably played DeShaun Foster over him last season, but he was averaging 5 yards a carry, to Parker’s 4.1 ypc. That’s a huge difference.

I think there is a big talent difference between Gary Russell and Michael Bush. Russell appeared in three games, and had seven carries. If he had been that productive in training camp, they certainly would have gone to him down the stretch when Davenport was carrying the load.

On to Moore, I think he’s got some talent, but calling him Minnesota’s #1 or #2 back in the last four seasons is just inaccurate. As a rookie, he was behind Michael Bennett and Onterrio Smith; he was the leading rusher in 2005; he was a distant #2 in 2006 behind Chester Taylor; and he was the third back last year behind Peterson and Taylor.

Also, your second post is a little bit confusing. Yes, Moore and Williams are the same age, but Moore has played in two more seasons, yet as a rusher Williams is just 62 yards behind Moore and has scored two more touchdowns. He’s clearly more of an obstacle to Stewart than Moore is to Mendenhall. Moore is just a third-down back at this point. With Davenport moving to fullback, the depth chart at RB will read: Parker, Mendenhall, Moore, to start the season.

by Dave Gardner on May 24, 2008 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Parker

...was leading the league in rushing last season when he went down. He had to have been doing some things right. He is in his prime as far as running backs are concerned, and the broken leg was the first real injury he has had in his career. From the day he showed up in Pittsburgh everyone has been saying he wasn’t strong enough to be a full time back, but he has proven them wrong each season.

As for Russell, he started out in camp as the fifth or sixth option at RB, he was just 20 years old, had only one season of college experience, and was coming off a year of inactivity. It was a bit much to expect him to take over as the #1 back. They were paying Davenport big bucks to back up Willie, and Najeh looked really good early in the season. I think he was averaging over 6 ypc and had 5 TDs at the time Parker was injured. With a playoff spot on the line Tomlin had to go with the safe choice, although in retrospect he may have done things differently.

Moore is a multi dimensional back. His rushing totals may not be that high, but he gets just as many yards on passes out of the backfield and has been one of the league’s better punt returners since he came to the NFL. Without Adrian Petersen, his numbers would have been a lot more impressive, and he would still be a Viking.

But the real point I was trying to make is the DEPTH of the Steeler running game. We can quibble over the respective merits of Parker, Fargas, Davenport, Williams, Moore, Bush, Russell, etc. but I don’t think any other runner in the league has a tougher GROUP of veterans to beat out than Mendenhall.

by robert ethan on May 24, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs