The best drafting team (1996-2005) is....
by shake n bake
on May 26, 2008 1:03 PM EDT
The Colts by a large margin and Pro-Football-Reference proves it objectively using their "approximate value" player measure. The number used to rank the players/teams is basically "how much better/worse was that player than the normal player taken with that pick" with some math magic to correct for varying career lengths between draft classes.
The difference between the Colts and second place (The Packers) is the bigger than the difference between 2nd and 9th. The Colts are good at the draft even more than the Lions are bad at it.
The 25 best picks
Tom Brady 199 2.21Zach Thomas 154 2.07Jason Taylor 73 2.06Terrell Owens 89 1.89Ronde Barber 66 1.84Ray Lewis 26 1.81Tiki Barber 36 1.67Randy Moss 21 1.65La'Roi Glover 166 1.62Marvin Harrison 19 1.60Lofa Tatupu 45 1.50Matt Hasselbeck 187 1.48Sam Madison 44 1.45Lance Briggs 68 1.41LaDainian Tomlinson 5 1.41Brian Westbrook 91 1.40Ahman Green 76 1.39Hines Ward 92 1.37Joey Porter 73 1.36Trent Cole 146 1.35Clinton Portis 51 1.35Peyton Manning 1 1.33Edgerrin James 4 1.33Adalius Thomas 186 1.33Aaron Brooks 131 1.32
The worst is of course, Ryan Leaf.
The Top 12 Teams
Indianapolis Colts 40.74 31.12 9.62Green Bay Packers 34.89 28.87 6.02Baltimore Ravens 35.99 30.54 5.45Pittsburgh Steelers 36.61 31.19 5.42Philadelphia Eagles 38.42 33.26 5.16Dallas Cowboys 34.79 31.07 3.72Tennessee Titans 37.90 34.83 3.07Buffalo Bills 32.25 29.38 2.88New York Giants 31.40 28.78 2.62Jacksonville Jaguars 37.47 35.15 2.33Chicago Bears 37.36 35.30 2.05New England Patriots 35.75 34.55 1.20
The Colts 3 best and 3 worst picks
clt 1996 19 1.60 Marvin Harrison
clt 1998 1 1.33 Peyton Manning
clt 1999 4 1.33 Edgerrin James
clt 1999 63 -0.53 Brandon Burlsworth
clt 1996 51 -0.48 Dedric Mathis
clt 2005 92 -0.41 Vincent Burns
More good stuff over there, the link again
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Figures.
The Colts have done a great job building that roster and continue to do so. The list makes intuitive sense, too, so I like it.
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
by ejruiz on May 27, 2008 4:14 PM EDT 0 recs
Burlsworth
Even though he’s counted as one of our worst picks, that’s not really all that fair. He died less than 2 weeks after being drafted so he was never actually a bust.
by BlueVol03 on May 28, 2008 8:50 AM EDT 0 recs
The worst pick by the Colts
shows how amazingly good they’ve been. Their worst pick wasn’t even that bad and it wasn’t their fault he didn’t help them.
my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com
by shake n bake on
May 28, 2008 2:42 PM EDT
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Injuries
My only complaint (so far) with this list is that an injured player is listed as a bust.
www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com
by MattMiller on May 28, 2008 12:13 PM EDT 0 recs
Yeah
It’s hard to separate the injured out from the guys who couldn’t play. The injured guys were “bad picks” but it’s not the front offices fault that they didn’t produce (unless they ignored medical reports that suggested high injury risk).
my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com
by shake n bake on May 28, 2008 2:41 PM EDT 0 recs
If you look at the Colts "top 3", however...
It is pretty obvious that their individual success is tied up with each other. I think it is a safe bet that none of them would have had the same statistics on another team with different offensive players around them. Manning and Harrison have a unique symbiosis with each other, and James benefitted by not being the focal point of defensive schemes with those two on the field at the same time. That certainly skews the “math” a great deal, although you have to give credit to the team for managing to assemble the right mix at the right time.
by robert ethan on May 29, 2008 6:34 PM EDT 0 recs
Indy!?
You take Manning out of the equation and the others are just decent players. In fact, with Manning being the first pick in the draft, it’s actually no big deal that he ended up being such a great pick. When you get a Ray Lewis as the 26th pick, Adalius Thomas with the 186th pick, not to mention Ed Reed and Todd Heap in the lower parts of the first round, then that’s great drafting. I’d take my Ravens’ War Room over any other team, especially Indy’s and Green Bay’s.
-Rexx
www.BaltimoreBeatdown.com
Rexx
by Rexx on May 30, 2008 6:08 PM EDT 0 recs
Not A Colts Fan, But...
Marvin Harrison (1st round, 19th overall in 1996)
Tarik Glenn (1st round, 19th overall in 1997)
Peyton Manning (1st round, 1st overall in 1998)
Edgerrin James (1st round, 4th overall in 1999)
Reggie Wayne (1st round, 30th overall in 2001)
Dwight Freeney (1st round, 11th overall in 2002)
Dallas Clark (1st round, 24th overall in 2003)
Bob Sanders (2nd round, 44th overall in 2004)
Sanders and Reed are pretty much a wash, but Bob was a better value. Likewise, Clark can hold his own against Heap in terms of talent; don’t even try bring up the difference in supporting casts and schemes, because that’s up to the front offices as well. I guess I’d compare Harrison to Lewis, because they’re both first ballot Hall of Famers drafted in the bottom half of the first round. That leaves Adalius Thomas and I’ll let you take your pick as to who his best comp is, though the Colts never had to rely on late round steals to make their drafting skills look better. Now you have to dig up four more elite talents drafted by the Ravens during this time period and I didn’t even mention Robert Mathis and players like him. Baltimore has great people managing their franchise, but you have to give credit where credit is due and Indy has been the top dog in the draft for quite some time now. No offense and none should be taken.
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
by ejruiz on
May 31, 2008 12:04 AM EDT
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The Colts D
is built on draft steals. The Colts spend most of their high picks on offense so the defense is where they get their steals.
The 07 starting D
Dwight Freeney 1st rounder
Ed Johnson undrafted
Raheem Brock 7th rounder (by Eagles they cut him in preseason)
Robert Mathis 5th rounder (averaging over 8 sacks a year for his career, 38.5 in the last 4 years)
Freddy Keiaho 3rd rounder
Gary Brackett undrafted
Tyjuan Hagler 5th round
Marlin Jackson 1st round
Bob Sanders 2nd round
Antonie Bethea 6th round (unseated a 2 year starter as a rookie in camp, made the Pro Bowl in 2nd year)
Kelvin Hayden 2nd round
So how did this defense made up of 2 first rounders, 2 2nd rounders, a 3rd, 2 5ths, a 6th and 3 players that were rookie free agents do? A defense with more than half it’s starters not having been drafted in the 1st day can’t be any good, can it?
my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com
by shake n bake on
May 31, 2008 1:19 AM EDT
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Baltimore
In my mind, Baltimore takes a serious hit b/c they’ve had a recent first round bust in Boeller. Not to mention that 2005 first rounder, Mark Clayton, hasn’t exactly set the world on fire either.
by cgolden on
Jun 2, 2008 11:04 AM EDT
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They built one of the leagues top teams
almost entirely though the draft and undrafted rookies
They had 2 starters who were drafted by other teams and only one ever played a game for another team (Viniteiri and Raheem Brock)
Of their 53 man roster in 07 only
Dan Klecko
Craphono Thorpe
Rocky Boiman
Bryan Fletcher
Devin Aromashado
were drafted by other teams and only Klecko and Boiman played in actual games for teams besides the Colts.
That’s 48 players on a 13-3 team that were drafted or signed as undrafted free agents by the Colts front office.
my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com
by shake n bake on May 31, 2008 1:08 AM EDT 0 recs
*46
But Thorpe and Aromashado wouldn’t have been on the roster if Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and Aaron Moorehead had all gotten injured. So 48 isn’t too inaccurate
my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com
by shake n bake on
May 31, 2008 1:10 AM EDT
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I Hope You Don't Mind...
Even as a Broncos fan, it’s pretty clear to me that the Colts are the best drafting team in the league and that it’s not that close. I know you didn’t need me to step in and say anything, but it was easy enough to toss my two cents in there! I’d still take Brady, though… ;)
Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!
by ejruiz on
May 31, 2008 7:27 AM EDT
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Everyone is allowed to agree with me
no problem
my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com
by shake n bake on
May 31, 2008 11:38 AM EDT
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It was nice
to see my Bears on that list since I get to hear them bashed all the time for drafting poorly.
Kick it to me... I'm open!
by #23 on Jun 23, 2008 7:02 PM EDT 0 recs
well Rexy and Capt. Cedric kind of hurt them
They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil' Wayne "Fireman"
by shake n bake on
Jun 23, 2008 10:17 PM EDT
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