AFC Playoff Predictions

As I noted in the comments section beneath Matt's post, I have determined through the NFL's rigorous 12-step playoff tiebreaking rules -- although I only had to go to step 2... don't tell anyone -- who would make the playoffs in Matt's predicted AFC field. So here is how the seeding broke down, with some explanations as to how it turned out like it did:

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2): AFC West Champs, best record overall in AFC
2. Indianapolis Colts (13-3): AFC South Champs by virtue of a better division record than Jacksonville, head-to-head tie breaker with New England
3. New England Patriots (13-3): AFC East Champs, better record than Pittsburgh
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): AFC North Champs
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3): 2nd place AFC South, top wild card
6. Cleveland Browns (9-7): 2nd place AFC North, wild card by virtue of 2-0 record versus Broncos and Bills

As you can see, the playoff field looks quite similar to last year's. This could be the case with a top-heavy AFC. So, although my predictions would probably be different than Matt's (and so would yours, and yours, and yours), here is what I would predict emerging from this playoff field:

Wild Card Round:

New England Patriots (3) defeat Cleveland Browns (6): For the city of Cleveland, and for a proud Browns franchise, this would be a welcome return to the playoffs. However, there couldn't be a more difficult place to play the game than New England. Brady and Belichick are undefeated in Foxborough in the playoffs at 8-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5) defeat Pittsburgh Steelers (4): In a rematch of last year's thrilling wild card matchup, the Steelers would come out with a lot of motivation. In the game this past January, the Jaguars benefitted from a huge non-call on David Garrard's famous 32-yard run on the fourth-and-two play late in the game. There was an obvious hold on the play. Still, with the Steelers' shaky offensive line, and the Jaguars front four that now features Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, the Jags once again prevail.

Divisional Round:

Jacksonville Jaguars (5) defeat San Diego Chargers (1): As the Chargers once again prove, being the one seed isn't all it's cracked up to be. This Jacksonville team is so talented on both sides of the ball. "But Dave, so are the Chargers," you might be thinking. You're exactly right. However, the Jaguars coaching staff is exponentiall better than that of the Chargers. The Jags have two coordinators who have been head coaches. The Chargers head coach should still be a coordinator.

Indianapolis Colts (2) defeat New England Patriots (3): You have to respect New England's chances to win any game in the playoffs, and they are certainly getting hungrier with each passing season that they fail to hold that Lombardi trophy up again. However, the Colts will return an extremely young, yet experienced defense that boasts what I'll call the best secondary in the NFL. The Patriots used to get in the Colts' heads, but that won't happen in Lucas Oil Field, which will see a great first playoff game of many to come.

AFC Championship Game:

Indianapolis Colts (2) defeat Jacksonville Jaguars (5): Wow. What a matchup this would be in the AFC Championship Game. Besides Colts-Patriots here, there wouldn't be a game that would be more fun to watch. According to Matt, these teams will split their regular season matchups, with the home team winning each contest. I don't see this game being any different. I'd call this one a defensive struggle with a big play from Reggie Wayne being the difference.

So there you have it, the AFC playoff predictions. Matt will be bringing you the NFC regular season predictions soon, and I'll follow that up with NFC playoff predictions based off of them. Then -- most likely in a separate post -- we'll unveil the MTD Super Bowl winner.