Mocking the Super Bowl
Well, here we are in February in my lovely hometown of Tampa, Fl. We ran through the regular season and the playoffs for both conferences to determine the matchup for Super Bowl XLIII. It'll be the Indianapolis Colts attempting to keep the Lombardi trophy in the Manning family for the third-consecutive season against the Dallas Cowboys trying to bring it back to the Lone Star state for the first time since Troy Aikman was under center.
Let's break from the brief game summaries of the playoffs and detail some more specific matchups.
Keys for the Colts:
1. Peyton Manning vs. the Dallas secondary. This should be a matchup that the Colts win easily. Dallas features a young, unproven secondary. There aren't many better route-running wide receivers than Reggie Wayne, and there aren't many more accurate quarterbacks than Manning. Odds are that the Dallas secondary would have to rely on the pass rush to disrupt Manning and his receivers.
2. Dallas Clark vs. the Dallas linebackers. If Marvin Harrison is healthy this season, the Colts would likely feature three-wide receiver sets for most of this game, leaving the Cowboys in nickel. They won't switch to dime because of the fear of Joseph Addai running all over the field, so a linebacker will be covering Clark -- who is basically a wide receiver. If Clark can go up the seam and keep drives alive, the Cowboys defense will not be coming off the field except to make way for the special teams unit to defend the PAT.
3. Bob Sanders in the box. The Cowboys would like to run the ball against a smaller defense in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have one small advantage over other Tampa 2 defenses, and his name is Bob Sanders. Sanders will need to be in the box almost exclusively -- save for a few passing downs -- to help contain the powerful Marion Barber III. It'd be wild to see those two hit each other at full speed.
Keys for the Cowboys:
1. Offensive line vs. defensive line. This is the Cowboys best matchup against the Colts. The Colts, who feature a small defensive line that has a tendency to get worn down toward the end of games, face the biggest offensive line in football. It's important for the Cowboys to both protect Tony Romo (because the Indianapolis secondary is good) and open up lanes in the running game.
2. Jason Witten vs. the Indy linebackers. Jason Witten is a monster of a tight end. He's an excellent blocker and pass-catcher, and he is very, very large. That doesn't bode well for the undersized Indianapolis linebackers. Witten will need to be able to catch tough passes over the middle and break tackles after he does. This could open up the outside passing game a little more for Romo and T.O.
3. The 3-4 rush vs. the Colts offensive line. The Colts line, although it has gotten better in recent years, has historically struggled against pressure from 3-4 defenses. This is because it's harder to anticipate where the pressure might be coming from. The Cowboys have some of the best pass-rushing outside linebackers in the game, and if they can knock around Peyton Manning early in the game, they have a chance of disrupting him for the entirety of it.
This would be a high-scoring game, and while it might not be as exciting at last year's Super Bowl, it will certainly attract a large audience as America's team faces off against another very popular team in the Indianapolis Colts. There are plenty of stars on each team, and the each coaching staff would have a great game plan in place. Ultimately, though, we have to go with the more experienced team in Indianapolis. The Cowboys will make it interesting for three quarters, but the Colts pull away in the end.
Indianapolis wins the first-ever Mocking the Draft Super Bowl, 34-24.
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Dungy vs. Phillips?
I’ll take Dungy in that matchup, too.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jun 17, 2008 4:54 PM EDT 0 recs
Highest career winning percentage of any active coach
7th best all time.
They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil' Wayne "Fireman"
by shake n bake on
Jun 17, 2008 5:47 PM EDT
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The Colts should have a strength in the passing game
But I don’t think It’s quite as clear-cut as most think. Newman can shut down slot receivers as well as anyone in the league, PacMan is a very capable 2nd corner, and we can drape Henry and Jenkins over any other threats at WR. Zach Thomas, if he can stay healthy is one of the top coverage LBs around. He won’t shut down Clark, but he’ll help contain him.
On the other end of the spectrum, if Freeney is healthy and the Colts are bringing pressure, I fear what could happen. Strangely enough, it was the Cowboys’ line which faltered when on the field longer than anticipated, not the small, ostensibly-suffocated Giant pass rush. If the Colts bring persistent pressure, they could begin to torment Romo.
by BudLight on Jun 17, 2008 8:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Coverage
Pac-Man, who hasn’t played in over a year and is at best “a very capable #2” against Marvin or Reggie? Yes please.
Covering Clark with a linebacker does not work. Clark really is “basically a WR” he played more WR than TE last year. He’s a WR that’s big enough and blocks well enough to play in-line. Football Outsiders listed him as a WR for the season and had him pegged as a solid #2 WR. Putting a 35 year old LB on him is going to end badly for the Cowboys no matter how good Thomas use to be.
The Colts line also added a pair of Robert Mathis clones to spell Freeney and Mathis and keep up the pressure. Ed Johnson is slimming down to get better penetration and Keyunta Dawson is improving his pass rushing ability from the under tackle spot as he learns the position. The pass rush shouldn’t die when Freeney and Mathis get tired this year.
They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil' Wayne "Fireman"
by shake n bake on
Jun 18, 2008 12:12 AM EDT
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PacMan
If on his game, and from all indications he will be, is a top 15 CB. I was being conservative.
Zach Thomas has guarded TEs like Antonio Gates quite capably. You can’t expect me to believe that Clark is any more fast, agile, or generally athletic than Gates. And if need be, the Cowboys could drape a CB over him. The team can feel quite comfortable going four deep, with Henry and Jenkins playing alongside Newman and Jones.
by BudLight on
Jun 18, 2008 8:45 AM EDT
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Conservative?
PacMan hasn’t played in a long time and even when he was playing, did he ever shutdown Reggie or Marvin? You can drape Jenkins over any WR? I think he was a great pick but he’s still a rookie. Thomas may be able to keep up with Clark for part of the game but Clark is just too quick for Thomas to run with for an entire game.
Too many people are saying the Cowboys secondary is great. How do you come to that conclusion when you have a small LB playing safety, a CB who hasn’t played in over a year, and a possible staring rookie? Newman will have a good year but that’s all I would count on. I hope the Colts do face you in the Super Bowl…
by BlueVol03 on
Jun 18, 2008 11:05 AM EDT
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You're taking a lot of my statements out of context
For one, I didn’t say you could drape Jenkins over ‘any’ receiver. I expect him tobe a good CB, yes. It’s a position that rookies can step into fairly easily. And he was perhaps the most NFL-ready of any secondary prospect in this draft.
You’re ignoring the point I made about Gates and Clark. Those two aren’t used very differently for the most part, and Gates is more capable in every way.
Roy Williams is a weakness, but he’s barely going to be on the field in passing situations. Dating back to 2 years ago, the coaching staff has started to slowly decrease his reps on ‘Air’ downs. He’ll do his job capably (hit running backs and occasionally wrap up a TE after the catch) and sit on the bench when It’s time for Manning to pass.
by BudLight on
Jun 18, 2008 3:09 PM EDT
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exact words
Actually you said “and we can drape Henry and Jenkins over any other threats at WR”. I think Jenkins will turn out to be the best CB taken in this draft but he’s not going to cover Marvin or Reggie successfully.
I’m not ignoring your Clark/Gates point I just don’t think it matters. Maybe Thomas has covered Gates capably, I haven’t really paid attention to Dolphons/Chargers games. Thomas is old and fragile. He’s coming off a season in which he only played about 5 games. Maybe he can cover Clark, maybe he can’t…
For your sake your defense better be good at subbing pretty quick because Manning would use the hurry up if it meant keeping Roy on the field on those ‘Air’ downs.
The only way Dallas beats Indy is if they have constant, intense pressure on Manning forcing him in to mistakes. Our O-line isn’t going to allow that…
by BlueVol03 on
Jun 18, 2008 4:14 PM EDT
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oh really
The Cowboys did it in 2006 when their team wasn’t as good. Cowboys could beat the Colts in numerous ways, not just by harassing Manning.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on
Jun 19, 2008 11:50 AM EDT
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Uno mas
One thing that Dave didn’t mention, nor did we talk about, is that the Super Bowl will be played outside in Tampa, Florida. We have seen weather affect both Manning and Romo before. The elements could be the biggest factor in this game. Manning played well in his Super Bowl despite the rain, but that game was won on the back of a stout running game and determined defense (not to mention a horrible opponent).
Manning v. Romo could very well come down to rain or shine in Tampa.
www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com
by MattMiller on Jun 18, 2008 4:24 PM EDT 0 recs
horrible?
I wouldn’t consider Chicago a horrible opponent. However, Rex did play horribly in that game and ever since then as well.
by BlueVol03 on
Jun 18, 2008 4:28 PM EDT
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Manning's numbers
Manning’s numbers in a Super Bowl played in the rain: 25-38 for 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, QB rating of 81.8
Again, this was in the rain against one of the best defenses in football. To state that the game was won on the back of the running game and defense is utter silliness. Manning was the MVP of the game, and regardless of whether anyone feels it should have been Addai, Rhodes, or Sanders who won the MVP, the fact of the matter is Manning DID win it, and a credible case can be made that, without his excellent play, the Colts do not win.
So please, let’s spare the stupid “weather might be a factor” crap. When a team and a QB dominates a defense the way the Colts did the Bears in a monsoon, I think it is fair to say that the Colts wouldn’t be bothered if it rained a little during any future Super Bowls that they might play in.
SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.
by BigBlueShoe on
Jun 20, 2008 3:01 PM EDT
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Tomorrow is Sunday
I’ll be in church to pray to Peyton Manning, right beside you and every other Colts fan.
www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com
by MattMiller on
Jun 21, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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Sorry
Horrible offense
www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com
by MattMiller on Jun 18, 2008 4:58 PM EDT 0 recs
Weather Factor
I think the Colts and the Cowboys will both feature strong running games this season, and they both have great offensive lines, so they should be able to play in the rain. The bigger matchup would be which team conditions better. That was a huge factor in humid Arizona last year, and, trust me, it will be a factor this year as well.
by Dave Gardner on Jun 19, 2008 12:27 AM EDT 0 recs
PacMan vs the Colts WRs
Marvin Harrison vs the Titans with PacMan
9-109-2, 4-61-1, 3-29-1, 7-172-1
total of 23 receptions for 371 yards and 5 TDs
average of 6-93-1.25
(Marvin’s career per game averages 6 for 80 and .7TD)
Reggie Wayne
2-48-1, 3-50-1, 3-24-1, 3-57-1
total of 11 for 179 and 3 TDs
3 for 45 and a TD average
(Wayne’s career per game averages 4.5 for 64 and .4 TDs)
Marvin Harrison had big games, Wayne had less yards and receptions the usual but still scored above his average rate (less than half a TD a game).
PacMan couldn’t cover Marvin and wasn’t any better than the average #2 vs Wayne.
They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil' Wayne "Fireman"
by shake n bake on Jun 19, 2008 2:33 PM EDT 0 recs
Take into account that Pac had a terrible rookie year
and the fact that the Titan pass rush was pretty weak before Haynesworth became a Kryptonian.
by BudLight on
Jun 19, 2008 3:13 PM EDT
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Yep we have a young unproven secondary
with Henry, Newman, and Hamlin. Makes sense to me… Not!
by quincyyyyy on Jun 22, 2008 8:23 AM EDT 0 recs















