10 Shameless Predictions about the NFL Season

by MattMiller on Jul 31, 2008 8:58 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

10. Adrian Peterson (MIN) will play no more than 13 games...
He will rush for 1,700 yards though and lead the League in rushing.

9. Jason Campbell will blow up...
Becoming a legit top 10 QB. Campbell is tailor-made for Jim Zorn's west coast offense.

8. The AFC South will be won by...
The Jacksonville Jaguars. This race will be close, and my feeling is that Peyton Forehead could miss a game or two. That's all it will take for Jacksonville to take the lead.

7. Unknown Hero Numero Uno...
Greg Olsen. With or without Brett Fav-ruh in Chicago, Olsen should have a big year. The absence of a legit WR makes this more obvious.

6. Ryan Grant v2.0...
Lorenzo Booker, Philadelphia Eagles. While not quite the unknown Grant was, Booker is going to be a major asset for the Iggles.

5. Quarterback Controversies, Solved!...
MIA: Josh McCown
GB: Aaron Rodgers
CHI: Kyle Orton
SF: Alex Smith
NYJ: Chad Pennington
ARZ: Matt Leinart

4. You're Fired...
Mike Nolan, SF
Lane Kiffin, OAK
Lovie Smith, CHI

3. Defensive League Leaders...
Tackles: Patrick Willis, 49ers
Sacks: Jared Allen, Vikings (20+)
Interceptions: Antonio Cromartie (12+)

2. Offensive League Leaders...
Passing (TDs): Tom Brady, Patriots
Rushing (Yards): Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Receiving (TDs): Braylon Edwards, Browns

1. And your division winners are....
Patriots, Browns, Jaguars, Chargers
Eagles, Vikings, Saints, Cardinals
WC: Steelers, Colts
WC: Cowboys, Giants

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Shameless indeed

Manning wont miss a start and the Cols will still remain kings of the south. ;)

by metal_militia on Jul 31, 2008 10:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He might even be back for some preseason

"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." - Thomas Paine

(Yes, that is a non-Lil Wayne lyric sig).

My Blog

by shake n bake on Jul 31, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Braylon Edwards?

He is good but I can think of at least 5 WR, who will have better stats than him: T.O., Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne.

by quincyyyyy on Aug 1, 2008 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

So the Eagles win the NFC East but you have the Cowboys winning the SB, ala Giants in ‘07? Or was someone else that predicted the Cowboys and Colts in the SB?

Booker—so does that mean that your predicting Westbrook to go down or just a timeshare in the backfield?

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on Aug 1, 2008 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Westbrook has been consistently injured throughout

If Booker gets 3-4 great games in, he could really solidify himself as a solid running mate. Westbrook isn’t a 300-carry back anyway, I think that’d be a perfect scenario to conserve Philly’s star while not losing productivity.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Stuff-You-Need-Brett-Favre-action-figure-bench?urn=nfl,93739

by BudLight on Aug 1, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dave Gardner

A fellow writer predicted the Cowboys would win the SB. I said Minnesota vs New England.

www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com

by MattMiller on Aug 1, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was Colts over Cowboys

"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." - Thomas Paine

(Yes, that is a non-Lil Wayne lyric sig).

My Blog

by shake n bake on Aug 2, 2008 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Touche

Thank you.

www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com

by MattMiller on Aug 2, 2008 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

12 INTS?

Nobody has picked off 12 or more passes since Lester Hayes had 13 in 1980.

Your Adrian Peterson prediction is even crazier. Did you even think those numbers through?

I will do the math for you.

1,700 yards in 13 games is roughly 131 yards per game.

Let’s play make belive and pretend that Peterson can actually average 5.6 yards per carry again. He would need more than 23 carries a game to accomplish it. If his average comes back down to a more believable 5 ypc than he will need over 26 carries a game.

Peterson averaged 17 carries a game last year and the league leader, Marshawn Lynch, averaged 21.5 carries.

Let’s assume that Chester Taylor sees a role decrease and that Peterson gets 20 carries a game, which would probably still put him in the top 5 in the league. He would need to average a little over 6.5 yards per carry to get to 1,700 yards in 13 games.

by kaisertown on Aug 3, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

All are thought out.

In 2007, Peterson started 9 games, playing in 14. He also doubled as a return man. He had 238 carries for 1,341 yards (5.6). Let’s say Peterson does play in 13 games, 131 ypg is very likely based on his rookie season. We should also see fewer defenders in the box with the addition of Bernard Berrian.

Cromartie picked off 10 passes starting 8 games. I’d say 12 is on the safe side.

www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com

by MattMiller on Aug 3, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But how?

Peterson played in 14 games last year. I don’t care how many times he started. He averaged 17 carries a game and his 238 carries were the 14th most in the league. How many more carries can he get this year in one less game? There were only 4 RBs that averaged 20 or more carries last season and none of them had backups anywhere near as talented as Chester Taylor (Lynch/Jackson, Parker/Davenport, Portis/Betts, James/Shipp). Chester Taylor had 53 carries during the two weeks that Peterson missed, so he only averaged 7.4 carries per game when Peterson played.

The other way Peterson gets to 131 yards per game is by having a crazy-high ypc average. The only player since 1980 (I got tired of looking back) to have 200+ carries and average 6.0 ypc was Barry Sanders. He did it once, in 1997, the year he went over 2000 yards and he still didn’t average 131 yards per game that season. I should also point out that Peterson’s 5.6 ypc average is probably something he won’t repeat. That number is based largely off of his two huge games last year where he ran for 224 yards on 20 carries against Chicago and 296 yards on 30 carries against San Diego. Those were actually his only two games where he ran for over 130 yards.

Mathematically, how will Peterson run for 1,700 in 13 games. Here are the carries per game and yards per game averages it would take to average 131 yards per game.

20 carries per – 6.55 ypc
21 carries per – 6.24 ypc
22 carries per – 5.95 ypc
23 carries per – 5.70 ypc

by kaisertown on Aug 3, 2008 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too much free time, bro

23 per at 5.7 is doable. Let’s wait and see. Numbers mean shit on the field. Football Outsiders is a fun site, but let’s see what happens with the pads on.

Peterson is running behind the best left side in the NFC and in an offense that will lean heavily on the run to cover a bad passing attack.

www.newerascouting.com www.mockingthedraft.com

by MattMiller on Aug 3, 2008 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs