Team Profile: New Orleans Saints

by mgrex03 on Jan 31, 2009 12:21 AM EST in Mocking the NFC South

Round	Pick	Overall
1	14	14
4	16	144
4	18	146
7	14	206

I'll start my NFC South profiles with the team who finished in 4th place, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints finished at 8-8, tying the Redskins for best record of a team finishing in last place in their division. Let's take a look at the Saints' upcoming draft picks (table on right).

The Saints have the fewest draft picks in this year's draft, with only 3 4. They spent their 3rd Round pick for Jonathan Vilma, which would convert to a 1st if they re-sign him before he becomes a free agent (which they won't be doing). UPDATE: The Saints will get back a 4th rounder from the Jets, that the Jets got last season. Thanks to MtnExile for the info. They traded their 6th round pick to the Packers last year for their 7th round pick (Adrian Arrington).

That brings us to their 2nd and 5th round picks, which were traded to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey. To put it nicely, this was an awful trade for the Saints. Shockey only played in 12 games, had less than 500 yards receiving (with a QB who threw for over 5000 yards), and 0 touchdowns. Doesn't sound like a guy who's worth 2 draft picks, including a 2nd rounder. But don't just take my word on it: Here's what Saintsational, head writer at Canal Street Chronicles, had to say about the trade:

Shockey was a waste this season and Dr. Baden could take him or leave him. The Saints offense would have been just fine without him and the second and fifth round draft picks the Saints gave up to get him would be much more valuable to the team right now moving forward.

I've combined rankings for the Saints based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders. Here's how the Saints stacked up this season:

NFL.com Stats	Record	Rush Off.	Pass Off.	Scoring Off.	Total Off.	Rush Def.	Pass Def.	Scoring Def.	Total Def.
NFL.com Stats	8-8	28th	1st	1st	1st	17th	23rd	26th	23rd
Football Outsiders	Total DVOA	Rush Off.	Pass Off.	Offense DVOA	Weight Off. DVOA	Rush Def.	Pass Def.	Defense DVOA	Weight Def. DVOA
Football Outsiders	9th	8th	3rd	1st	1st	20th	22nd	24th	19th

It's clearly obvious that the Saints don't have too many problems on offense, as they have the best offense based on DVOA, as well as Passing Offense, Total Offense, and Scoring Offense. A lot of these great rankings come from 2008 Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees. They also did this without 2007 leading receiver Marques Colston for a majority of the year. The Saints' #9 ranking in Total DVOA was the highest for a non-playoff team as well, beating out divisional rivals Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

The struggles for the Saints came on the Defensive side of the ball. There wasn't one specific area that struggled, but there wasn't one area where they were better than average either. With so few draft picks, I'm guessing they'll use them all on defense. They actually did improve defensively from 2007, but it still wasn't good enough to get them to the playoffs.

They have already taken the first step in trying to improve the defense, firing Defensive Coordinator Gary Gibbs (complete with a Saved by the Bell reference). I think the fans are happy, and maybe had a part in it. From Saintsational again:

Holy crap I can't believe they really did it. The Saints actually fired Gary Gibbs...I am freaking out! This is like one of those things that you dream about and always wish would happen but you never actually think it's really possible. It's like we, the fans, willed it to happen. Kinda feel bad actually.

Gibbs' replacement? Former Redskin and Jaguar Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams. I'm not entirely sold on this choice. The Jaguars didn't like him very much this season, and he was passed over in '07 to be Joe Gibbs' replacement with the Redskins, even though he had a "hand-shake" deal to become the head coach after Gibbs retired. Saints fans seem to like the choice, but I think they could have done better.

The Saints have lots of improving to do on the defensive side of the ball, and have to continue their dominance on offense. I won't have too many picks to screw up for them over the next couple months.

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Hmmm...a few issues

First of all, the Saints have four picks. They own the Jets’ pick in the fourth round as part of the terms of the Vilma trade.

Second, Gregg Williams is the perfect defensive counterpart of Sean Payton. He’s aggressive to the point of recklessness, but he’s also very sound fundamentally and very innovative. When you say the Jags didn’t like him much, what you really mean is that Jack Del Rio didn’t like him much—they have totally different defensive philosophies. As for the Redskins job…who can say what Daniel Snyder will do next, or why? His relationships with coaches and players are no basis for forming an opinion.

Now, as to the choice of Vontae Davis. Though he has a good rep among a lot of draftniks, he’s not the sort of player I think Williams is looking for. Williams has already stated (and this is nothing new to those who are familiar with him) that he builds a defense from the back to the front, and that the Saints will need two good safeties in order to execute it properly. I’m not sold on William Moore since the Senior Bowl, but Louis Delmas’ stock has been rising.

If the Saints can trade back and still pick up Delmas or Rashad Johnson, plus another pick, I expect that to be what they do. If they can’t trade back, they’ll either go ahead and draft a safety at 14, or pick up a cornerback or outside linebacker (please, NOT Laurinaitis!). Davis is not a lock for the cornerback spot, considering that D.J. Moore and Alphonso Smith are both seeing their stock rise, too, and Davis has some motivation issues. Williams may be the man to get his mind right, or they may just decide it’s too much trouble when there are cornerbacks just as good. It’s a trade-off of height for attitude.

Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...

by MtnExile on Jan 31, 2009 12:16 PM EST reply actions

I've scoured the interwebs

And have found no mention anywhere that the Saints got the Jets 4th rounder in the Vilma trade. Can you post a link to it?

As far as Gregg Williams goes, I just don’t like the retread hires. Sure he didn’t share philosophies with Del Rio, but his players quit on him this season. Whether that was on Williams or Del Rio is up in the air, but the Jaguars didn’t feel the need to replace both of them (and I thought they both should have lost their jobs, but that’s my opinion). I just don’t trust a guy who has been fired each of the past 2 seasons.

Here’s a couple guys that I think the Saints should have taken a look at:

Sean McDermott, secondary coach for the Eagles. He’s been working under Jim Johnson for 8 seasons now, and they have been consistently good over that time. Style fits with what the Saints want to do.

Karl Dunbar, DL coach for the Vikings since 2006. Been ranked #1 rush defense in the NFL all 3 seasons. With DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Michael Turner in division, he’d be a strong candidate. He also went to LSU.

Williams may end up being a fine pick. I just think the Saints could have done better.

Mocking Dan did the Mock Draft, so he’ll have to address the rest of your post. I’m thinking Davis is not the right fit, but haven’t done much research on it yet. I’ll have my opinion later.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jan 31, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

McDermott

Interesting choice for DC. Williams as DC in NO is not a great choice. The Saints should be running some variation of a 4-3 Cover-2. Williams is a 3-4 guy who loves to blitz. Saints aren’t built for that.

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by Brad Wells on Jan 31, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

My understanding

is that the Saints sent their 2008 4th rounder to the Jets for Vilma. The Jets used that to pick Dwight Lowery. The deal stipulated that if Vilma completed 85% of the defensive snaps, the pick would become a 3rd rounder—which meant that NY gained the Saints’ 2009 3rd round pick and returned a 4th round pick to the Saints. That would mean that the Jets now own the Saints’ 3rd round pick, and the Saints own the Jets’ 4th round pick, giving them two choices in the 4th.

There are a lot of web pages that allude to this (such as here), but none that I found that spelled out in detail exactly what the terms are—not even in the major media (which, frankly, doesn’t surprise me, as “major media” and “malpractice” have become virtually synonymous). However, the Jets did get the Saints’ 4th rounder last year, and I don’t believe the deal was for the Jets to receive two picks for Vilma—only a conditional 4th that could go higher.

Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...

by MtnExile on Jan 31, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

according to this the Jets only give the 4th if Vilma plays the 85% and is resigned

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/2009.htm

You can love me or hate me,
I swear it won't make me or break me
-Lil Wayne "Love me or hate me"

by shake n bake on Feb 1, 2009 2:12 AM EST up reply actions

It is a third

I’ve found the most accurate trade notes are on Wikipedia, actually. here are this years. And the Vilma trade:

New Orleans to New York Jets. New Orleans traded its third-round selection to the Jets for linebacker Jonathan Vilma.8 That selection rose from the fourth round because of Vilma’s playing time in 2008. If the Saints re-sign Vilma before free agency begins on February 27, 2009, then the Saints would owe the Jets a second-round selection. The Saints have traded that second-round selection to the New York Giants as part of the Jeremy Shockey trade, however, so the Giants instead would get the Saints’ first-round choice. Because of this, the Saints reportedly will wait until Vilma is a free agent to re-sign him.9

by Dan Kadar on Feb 1, 2009 9:03 AM EST up reply actions