It’s part of the reason many Niner fans don’t even want to consider drafting a QB in the first round. Here’s what I would say is a much better argument:

Who would you say have been the six most successful franchises in the last five or six years? I’d argue that the Pats, Colts, Steelers, Eagles, Chargers, and Giants could be that top 6. Notice a trend among that group? They all have had extremely good quarterbacks, and all of them but the Pats took that quarterback in the top 11 picks of the first round. Even the Pats took Drew Bledsoe with the first overall pick and he was fairly successful, they just got lucky and found Tom Brady (and even they would tell you it was luck).

Drafting a franchise quarterback is the single easiest way to turn your franchise around by far, as teams that do find those guys are usually competitive for at least the next 10 years. At the very least you are almost assured of having a pretty good offense. The difference in value between a decent QB and a decent player at nearly any other position is enourmous. Look at how much Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub brought back in trade without being top QB’s and compare that to a player of equal caliber at another position. You think an average safety or defensive tackle is worth 2 firsts and a third? Heck, are they even worth a 3rd? Kris Jenkins and Shaun Rogers were only worth slightly more than a 3rd rounder and they were top DT’s.

Also remember that (except in very rare circumstances), you’re not going to find a quarterback worth his weight in salt in free agency. Pretty much any other position you can sign a player and get solid production out of him, but if you haven’t drafted a good QB you probably have to give up a king’s ransom in a trade to find one. Which brings up another point, when you draft a QB you pretty much get exclusive negotiating rights with him for his whole career, as they never hit free agency. Drafting Peyton Manning paid off for the Colts long after his rookie contract expired, no other team has ever had a chance to bring him aboard.

And the easiest way by far to draft a top QB is to pick one in the first round. What many people forget is that for every Tom Brady or Matt Hasselbeck there are 10 late round QB’s that didn’t work out. Bottomline is if you don’t have a franchise QB the biggest mistake you can make is passing up on one in the draft. How mad would the Niners be if they passed on Sam Bradford for Terrence Cody and Bradford turns into Philip Rivers, even if Cody were to become a very good NT? A player who plays 60% of the snaps on defense and only has any value on running plays just has nowhere near the value of a player who plays every snap on offense and is the biggest factor in how well the team plays on offense, even if both of them are top players.

That said, of course you must still be disciplined and try to find a quarterback you really like. It would be foolish to take a QB in the first round only for the sake of taking one. And I have no problem with drafting a later round QB to develop him and seeing if maybe you can get lucky and find a diamond in the rough. Just know that you’ve got perhaps a 45-50% shot of picking a franchise player when you pick a QB in the first round, but with a late round pick you’ve beaten the odds if you drafted Ryan Fitzpatrick or Luke McCown, because 9 times out of 10 you’ve picked the next Adrian McPherson, James Kilian, Bradley Van Pelt, Josh Harris, Andy Hall, Craig Kenzel, Cody Pickett, Stefan Lefors, or Casey Bramlet. If you don’t know who those guys are, that’s exactly my point.