Darrius Heyward-Bey bust update
by Mocking Dan on Nov 24, 2009 12:02 AM EST
in 2009 NFL Draft
24 comments
Fair or not, no player selected in the 2009 NFL Draft may face more scrutiny than Oakland wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Heyward-Bey was a good but not dominant wide receiver in college for Maryland. He was considered by most, myself included, as at best the third-best wide receiver in this year's draft.
However, in the mind of Raiders owner Al Davis, the NFL Scouting Combine changed all that. Heyward-Bey ran his 40-yard dash of 4.3 seconds and a 38 1/2-inch vertical leap. Davis is known for taking players like JaMarcus Russell, Michael Huff, Thomas Howard, Fabian Washington and, uh, Sebastian Janikowski. They are players who are largely style over substance.
Heyward-Bey, who was taken seventh overall, clearly fits the mold. And because of that he'll frequently be looked at under a microscope. More often than not, he'll be measured against two players -- Michael Crabtree and Louis Murphy.
Crabtree was taken 10th overall by San Francisco. Following a holdout, he's played in five games this season. On the year, Crabtree already has 22 receptions for 292 yards and a touchdown.
Murphy, whom the Raiders took 117 picks later than Heyward-Bey, has 17 receptions for 261 yards and two touchdowns.
Then, there's Heyward-Bey. Through 10 games, as many as Murphy, he has seven catches for 103 yards and no touchdowns. He's only registered more than one reception in a game once this season. What's worse, Heyward-Bey has been given more snaps than any other receiver on the Raiders, according to Yahoo sports.
It still might be too early to say Heyward-Bey is a bust. However, there's nothing wrong with thinking it.
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You mentioned
Janikowski from FSU to get a rise out of me didn’t you? He is far from a style over substance player and has turned into a solid pro. In his 10 year career he is currently the highest scoring player in Raiders history. He is 15-17 for 88% this year on field goals and leads the league in touchbacks. He also has a 78% field goal percentage made in his career and is 99% on PAT’s. Was he worth a first round pick. No and I think only 3 kickers have been chosen in the first round. Al Davis isn’t known for his draft savvy though. But style over substance? I think not.
by 1newplayer on Nov 24, 2009 12:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agree
Janikowski is substance, as in illegal substance slipped into a woman’s drink at a bar.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Nov 24, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I try.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Nov 24, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, including Janikowski was mostly a joke. However, it was still stupid to take a kicker in the first round. That’s like your best Christmas present being a nose-hair trimmer. It’s damn useful, but not something to brag about.
Mocking the Draft: Your NFL Draft source.
by Mocking Dan on Nov 24, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
very nice analogy
Be careful....to a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
by Bezekira on Nov 24, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I will say this: I think that kicker is a very under-appreciated position on the football field. The kicker is the teams leading scorer and who do you call on in the clutch to win the game? The kicker. A good kicker can win you more games then any position on the football field other then quarterback. If there was a sure fire hall of fame caliber kicker in the draft I would use a 1st on him. Janikowski isn’t that guy, but if he was….
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Nov 24, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly! Just like a nose hair trimmer. Don’t trim them hairs, you might blow a date. Or a job interview. But clean it up, and bam, win at life. Sebastian Janikowski is the nose hair trimmer of the NFL body.
Mocking the Draft: Your NFL Draft source.
by Mocking Dan on Nov 24, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Research has shown (look through the Football Outiders archives if you don’t believe me, or I can link it if you want) that there’s no descernable difference in field goal accuracy between kickers. That is, there is no correlation in field goal percentage from one season to the next. The difference we see in FG% comes down almost entirely because of small samp,le size and differences in the distance of kicks. Similiar to how you cannot judge a baseball players true ability to get on base after 40 plate appearances, it’s ridiculous for people to judge a kicker’s accuracy after a season’s worth of kicks. Unfortunately, you can never really get enough of a sample size to see a kicker’s true level of accuracy, but the thought is that the difference would be 1% or so over the long haul.
What is underrated is a kicker’s ability to kick touchbacks on kickoffs, a highly repeatable skill that does show strong correlation from season to season. That’s the one thing that gives a kicker value, not their ability to kick field goals. But either way, there’s absolutely no way a kicker could be worth a first round pick in my opinion, even if they kicked a touchback every time.
by Brendan Scolari on Nov 25, 2009 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t discount clutch situations either. In the early part of this decade Adam Vinatieri made some incredible tough, clutch kicks.
Let me put it this way, who would you rather have kicking for your team right now Stephen Gostkowski or Jake Arians?
I did say IF there was a SURE FIRE hall of famer in the draft I would use a 1st on him. That is however a very big if, and I doubt there will be one again anytime soon.
I will also argue this on the Raider behalf; One could argue that they have gotten more out of Janikowski whom they spent a 1st on, then the Jets did out of Mike Nugent whom they spent a 2nd on. The Jets don’t get enough flak for that IMHO.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Nov 27, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"that gives a kicker value, not their ability to kick field goals"
No, that’s not the case. There’s a lot of kickers that don’t get trusted to even kick clutch goals, which means they are inferior kickers that aren’t getting misses against them in the stats. And some of the better ones have that clutch ability with time running out, and that value isn’t measured in their hit % either. To say touchbacks is the Only thing that gives kickers value just isn’t right. Some of FO’s ideas about statistics are kinda kooky, I’ve noticed.
by CoachConnors on Nov 29, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now I'm not saying DHB is a bust yet
but I’m certainly thinking it loudly.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Nov 24, 2009 2:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thomas Howard is one of the better LB's in the game.
Lots a teams screwed up in not taking him,
THe biggest screw-ups were Jamacus and Michael Huff. Huff I have no idea what happened, he was supposed to be a top 10 pick anyway…guess it was just the Raiders that did it to him…
DHB seems like bust in the making..but I think it had a lot to do with Jamacus. Louis Murphy isn’t making that excuse tho…so I think you gotta say DHB is looking like a bust.
He still is a rook tho. We’ve been spoiled with the past few drafts and WR making an impact, especially this one with Crabtree being good now that he’s back, Maclin, Nicks and Harvin…
But remember it usually takes about 2-3 seasons for a WR to usually make a big impact. You can usually tell in their rook year if they have somthing there (so…DHB does seem like a bust), but still a little too early.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 24, 2009 7:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh...
I didn’t know he had those.
Troy Williamson part II then.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 25, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still say...
get him away from Jamacus….might help.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 25, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Robert Gallery has been a wash.
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Nov 28, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hate to call any player in there rookie year a bust, or even think it for that matter. With that said I think that if you were to put up a poll and ask; 3 years from now what first round pick is the most likely candidate to be a bust? DHB would win going away.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
by sireric on Nov 24, 2009 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's had lots of
blown routes and drops.
by loyal2therams on Nov 24, 2009 10:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That’s the most concerning thing. I wasn’t able to find any concrete numbers on his targets, but I know it’s been quite a few. JaMarcus Russell was getting him in good positions to make catches, but DHB just wasn’t making the plays.
Mocking the Draft: Your NFL Draft source.
by Mocking Dan on Nov 24, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the numbers for you
According to Football Outsiders (an outstanding analytical site) DHB has had 35 targets and has caught a laughably low 20% of them. His DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over-Average) is almost twice as bad as any other qualifying receiver in the league and his 20% catch rate is also easily the lowest in the NFL. No one else has a catch rate in the 20’s, and only 3 guys have a catch rate in the 30’s, Louis Murphy (30%), Mark Clayton (30%), and Mohammed Massoquoi (39%).
Obviously some of that is on Jamarcus, whose an epic bust himself, but the Raiders receivers are terrible. Catching only 20% of the balls thrown your way is just mindblowing. According to Pro Football Focus (another outstanding site, they break down and analyze where each player was and how he played on every single play) DHB has played 465 offensive snaps and ran routes on 261 passing plays. 261 plays and he has 7 catches… It’s really unbelievable, and in such an extreme case I have no problem with someone calling him a bust already.
by Brendan Scolari on Nov 25, 2009 7:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
JaMarcus Russell was getting him in good positions to make catches
Not in real life.
by CoachConnors on Nov 29, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get too caught up in stats
I’ll be the first to agree that GHB has dropped some balls, but to just look at numbers without context is misleading.
Compared to Crabtree:
- GHB has fewer catches, fewer yards, fewer TD’s
- GHB plays in a system more inclined to run
- GHB has a huge disadvantage in QB. He plays with one of the worst excuses for a pro QB I’ve ever seen, much worse than anyone SF can roll out, and the bad timing that exists between QB and WR results in targets that don’t find their mark. I’m here to tell you that’s largely Russell’s fault. Not entirely, but light years beyond SF’s QBs.
I have seen him drop passes, but the comparable stats don’t tell the whole story.
His play has been very disappoinitng to the Raiders, but when I take the above into consideration, and I remember that he has only played about 10 games of his career, I don’t think the jury is back on this one. If he gets a better QB, you would definitely see a higher % on the targets caught number and the conversation changes.
by CoachConnors on Nov 29, 2009 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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