Draft Theory
by lifelongvike on Dec 10, 2009 12:59 PM EST
Email
Print
I am new to this site but have followed the draft for years. It always amazes me when a team forgoes a sure thing in the draft but rather reaches for a player. It might not be true but these types of moves seem to come from poor teams that need good players. Anyway I have formed the following theories of drafting.
Rule 1
Players (except quarterbacks) that rate as a top 5 pick should always be picked by poor teams in the top 5. Of course there are exceptions to the rule but if my team had a top 5 pick I wouldn't take the third best OT just because I need an OT.
Rule 2
Never take a QB if you have no defense. I don't know where the "you have to start a team with a QB" theory came from but a good defense can build a winning team quicker than drafting a good QB. Many adequate free agent QB's are serviceable for a short term.
Rule 3
Franchise QB's are rare and even then those taken in the top 15 picks only work out 50-60% of the time. If you have an opportunity to draft one be 100% sure your GM and coach are going to be there for a long time. QB's are only great in a matching system. To many teams draft a QB then change their coach. The new coach changes the system and the losing continues.
Rule 4
If you are picking 6-14 then you need the absolute best player available at any position, except for those positions filled by young stars on your team. You need depth to win. Don't hesitate to take a great player.
Rule 5
If your team is good enough to be picking after the top 15 then take the player you have rated higher that everyone else has passed on. You can never go wrong accepting a gift.
This years draft?
Cleaveland- You are a bad team. Take the best of the top 5 non QBs available
Saint Louis- You are a bad team. Take the best of the top 5 non QBs available
Tampa Bay- You are a bad team. Take the best of the top 5 non QBs available
Detroit- You are a bad team with a Franchise QB. Make sure you get a top 5 OT.
Kansas City You are a bad team with a franchise QB. Get a top 5 player no matter how
clever you think you are at drafting
Oakland. You are a bad team. Follow the five rules above. Defense might be a good idea.
You might actually start by hiring a GM and player personnel department that knows
something about football in this century.
Thanks for allowing me to join the board. What are your rules?
If it's deemed spam, it gets deleted.
36 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I can't say that I agree with your rules or their application.
The NFL is a QB league. A very good QB [one player] can lift the whole team around him. A defence requires many players which can be obtained over a few drafts and in later rounds. The defensive scheme and coaching can make up for a talent deficit on defence much more than for a talent deficit at QB.
Here are my drafting rules:
1.There are no “sure things” in the draft.
2. Do your homework on the players with special emphasis on coachability, drive to succeed [I guess they call it a high motor too], and toughness/injury history.
3. Review college productivity rigorously and balance with potential. By this I mean that a players stats in college are important, but some are inflated or low due to the level of competition, system that the team runs, and surrounding talent.
4. Rank players with team needs in mind. This is a tricky one. I don’t mean that you draft based on what your biggest positional need is, but include some adjustment in your valuation of the available players. The Detroit Lions will not be placing much value on the QBs or TEs who will be available when they pick in 2010, right? DTs, CBs, OGs, and DEs will be a different story.
I think there are many successful paths to the Super Bowl. In the draft process it will take patience and some luck to get the players to get you there.
You may be right
Just the same I think the Browns and the Rams should draft positions other than QB. You are right about proper evaluation of players. Many teams evaluate on paper and don’t draft people who can play the game hard.
I don't disagree
The question is do they need anything else just as bad. Picking a QB at #1 or #2 doesn’t guarantee you a franchise QB. It gives you about a 60% chance at best. Drafting SUH, if you need him, probably gives you a 90% chance at a franchise DT. I will say this. If you have your coaching staff in place. If a QB rates out to your staff as a “Franchise guy” then its time to pull the trigger. However I don’t see anybody that rates as strong as Sanchez, Stafford, or Ryan.
I’m just a believer that having most of the other pieces in place is just as important in drafting as getting a QB. Pick up a Free Agent QB for a year or so. Chances are you will still have a high pick next year for that franchise QB. Just my theory.
by lifelongvike on Dec 11, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
Suh
Gives you a 99.9999999% chance of a franchise defensive tackle.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
Dorsey had knee problems
well documented too.
As far as Suh goes, I’ve heard nothing on him being injured.
"It ain't over till its over"---
How come no one covers Steve Smith?
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 12, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Something about a knee injury in High School.
Can’t remember where I read it. Here it is….
# Weaknesses:
- Occasionally gets too high in stance; leads to being washed
- Leverage technique could be more consistent
- Could develop more of a pass-rush repertoire
- Multiple knee injuries and surgeries
- One-year wonder?
from Matt Maguire of Walterfootball.com : http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2010nsuh.php
wow...
never even read that, and he compares him to Seymour too!
I did NOT know that he had multiple knee surgeries. Not at all.
I think the first 3 could be corrected with coaching. He’s got the speed, and BIg 12 O-Lineman aren’t exactly small, so he’s pushing around some big-un’s out there.
And the #5 is obviously pretty stupid, Suh was a beast last year too.
So yea, Glenn Dorsey seems like a good comparison. Only thing is Dorsey went into the draft pretty banged up.
I dunno about anyone else, but Suh did not look banged up the last time I saw him….and if he was? What happens when he’s healthy?
"It ain't over till its over"---
How come no one covers Steve Smith?
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 12, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
..o
that scout was after last year…..
anywho, I think he’s healthy.
You can’t go by past injuries all the time. Cuz well….surgery is supposed to heal you isn’t it? The hell’s the point of getting surgery if its not gonna repair the injury?
Glenn Dorsey’s obviously not the superstar everyone thought he’d be, probably cuz of switching scheme’s/coaches so early on.
I’d take Suh 1st overall tho. He’s not injured now and you can’t expect another injury, unless the doctors figure that out in the offseason.
"It ain't over till its over"---
How come no one covers Steve Smith?
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 12, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
I agree. He is still my #1.
I think Maguire even admits that some of the negatives are nit picky. He has him as his #1 player too. The only one this draft that he has given a five star elite rating too. Gerald McCoy is a four and a half.
Aaron Smith isn’t a superstar but he’s still one of the best in the league. Dorsey isn’t that good, but he could be if he works.
The biggest thing with Big DL’s is their work ethic. Too bad you can’t rely on coaches to tell you about it, because if it ever got out that a coach badmouthed a player to the NFL, he’d be toast.
by Phantaskippy on Dec 14, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
Draft picks
I find your rules very interesting and more comprenhensive than anything I can come up with. My rules would be.
1. QB’s are to tuff for me
2. No matter where you pick in the first round, take the best player on your board. (except QB’s )
1. Build time machine.
2. Draft accordingly.
3. Claim you draft well because you own a Time machine. No one will believe you, it’s genius.
Actually,
My real rules are:
1. Know your own system. Drafting players that don’t fit doesn’t work.
2. Don’t fall in love with Combine/workouts. They should only exist to show you Player “A” probably won’t make it because his game was speed in college and he’s not fast enough to do it in the NFL. If the guys slower but runs good routes and gets open, who cares?
3. Interview well. Know what you want to know about the player and get the info.
4. Talk to everyone you can, you don’t know who will fall, and talent doesn’t mean crap if the guy is lazy or selfish.
5. Draft two to three years ahead. Don’t draft for right now, that’s what free Agents are for. Drafting for the year that just ended is stupid, give the kid a chance. It’s better to suck for a few years and build a team right then have talented kids get crushed because they didn’t have time to adapt. Knee jerk draft picks rarely end up well.
6. Don’t draft #1. Just don’t.
by Phantaskippy on Dec 11, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How would one build a time machine? You have me intrigued.
Bears suck, Cubs suck, Bulls suck, Illini suck, who would have thought the Blackhawks would be my best shot at a title.
by tj.hendricks on Dec 11, 2009 3:35 AM EST up reply actions
I can dig this method.
"All by their heads, he places crowns."
by Tempestuous Binary on Dec 11, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Personally I go need, then BPA
It’s a little bit of both, BPA usually fills a need. I usually like high character guys, high effort, though there is no subsitute for raw talent.
The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
Need v BPA
Its always interesting when the BPA is not needed by your team. If your really stocked like a
- 26-32 team then the BPA can work. But the fact of the matter is that players get grouped. Lets say the top pick gets a rating of 8.5 By the time # 22 picks there might be 6 players at different positions which are rated or evaluated at 8.1. I think that’s when teams look at need. Take the 8.1 player you need. As fans we are never privy to the secret rating systems of the GMs. We just know when they mess up by missing the obvious.
by lifelongvike on Dec 11, 2009 7:46 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with that.
I have discussed this before. Players do not line themselves up according to value but rather are in groups of varying strengths and weaknesses. It is the job of the drafters/evaluators to sort through that and at the spot they are picking, decide who has the most value to the team in the short term and long term.
I think Pskip has it right with rule #5; draft a few years ahead because you need to give these kids a chance to learn and succeed and not count on them immediately to upgrade your team. Some will, but don’t get bent out of shape because they don’t contribute a lot in year one.
Not good if you need a position now
First and some 2nd round picks are suppose to add value to a team Now. That’s why they get paid more. Teams stock up on second stringers in the later rounds. Where I disagree with Pskip is that you can draft for the future but that doesn’t mean the kid will work out even after giving him a chance. If a player can’t immediately contribute (except QBs) then they usually fall in the draft. The draft is a game of tradeoffs. Most teams have a glaring need. However, if an appropriate player at that position isn’t available then you have to reach for a player or take another position.
by lifelongvike on Dec 11, 2009 9:07 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with you in general .......
but I believe the performance of rookies in the NFL shows the very large difference in quality of competition between college and the NFL. Some rookies can overcome this based on the position they play, and the coaching and system that they move to in the NFL. Usually you see the rookies who are most successful are ones who can rely on their raw physical ability [ie. running backs and linebackers] more than technique and understanding of complex schemes.
I see what you mean regarding the early picks. It is generally rare that a team can afford to let those guys sit all season although it does happen.
by NorthLeft12 on Dec 11, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
Always take the QB...
It’s a cliche but it happens to be true. If you don’t have a franchise QB, take one. Obviously there is a bust rate, but the consequences of not having one are dire. Let’s review the Super Bowl winning QBs of the last 2 decades shall we?
Ben Roethlisberger: #11 overall.
Eli Manning: #1 overall.
Peyton Manning: #1 overall.
Tom Brady: 6th round.
Brad Johnson: 9th round.
Trent Dilfer: #6 overall.
Kurt Warner: UDFA
John Elway: #1 overall.
Brett Favre: #33 overall.
Troy Aikman: #1 overall.
Steve Young: 1st round sup draft.
Mark Rypien: 6th round.
Phil Simms: #7 overall.
Granted, there are exceptions, but if you want to win a Super Bowl I would start with a 1st round QB.
yup.
or at least…draft one if you need one.
"It ain't over till its over"---
How come no one covers Steve Smith?
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 11, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
How many won with the team that drafted them?
Ben, Peyton, Brady, Aikman, Rypien, Simms.
Rypien and Brady weren’t first rounders. That leaves Ben, Peyton, Aikman and Simms.
So four of 13 of those QB’s were taken in the first round and won a Super Bowl.
Ben fell (a little Steelers trickery there) and Simms was considered a huge reach. Peyton was considered a safer pick than Leaf, but likely not as good. Aikman I don’t know if there was any drama there.
Point is don’t just grab a QB, grab one if you’ve done your work and they are really good and you believe they will make it. You might want to hire some really good QB scouts for a few years if you need one.
by Phantaskippy on Dec 12, 2009 2:44 AM EST up reply actions
Agree with reservations
I don’t disagree that the NFL is a quarterback league and a winning team needs a good one to win it all. My reservation is the timing. Yes, if you have your coaching staff in place
(that is your not going to change it) and that coaching staff has evaluated a QB as a “franchise guy within their system” then I think you take him.
But for most really bad teams they can do better by solidifying important team positions with a couple great players. Then get your QB. Capable game managing QBs are usually available on the free market for the short term.
Cleveland is in an unusual position this year because they have 11 draft picks. They can take a QB and still improve their team. St. Louis doesn’t have that luxury.
As to your post I point out that 40% of the Franchise guys you point out were not first round picks and another 40% of first round picks were busts. Its totally dependent on the player personnel department evaluations. If that is in place then pull the trigger. But there is risk involved.
Won't he be available to the #1 pick?
I\The schedule looks to me like St. Louis will not win another game. Tampa and the Browns look like easier schedules. So I guess St. Louis can pick whoever they want. It will be interesting. I can see Tampa trading from #3 TO #1 to get Suh. St.Louis gets the first QB and draft picks. It will be interesting to see how the teams really evaluate Suh. Is he as valuable as a franchise QB? Only have to wait till April to find out.
by lifelongvike on Dec 12, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
