Team Profile: Carolina Panthers

The 2008 Panthers accomplished something that had never happened in NFC South history:  Win the division after not finishing in last place the previous year.  They held off the Falcons by 1 game, who would have made it 6 straight years, after they finished 4-12 in 2007.  This stat is probably only exceeded by the fact that the NFC has won the Super Bowl coin toss the past 12 years.

The Panthers had a very good year, before completely falling apart in the Playoffs.  Well, the whole team didn't fall apart, just their Quarterback.  5 Interceptions and a fumble will do that to you.  He started pressing after the first couple, and it was all downhill from there.  Easily the worst game in Delhomme's career, and it had to come at a pretty bad time.

The Panthers will use its 5 draft picks in 2009 to hopefully get further in the playoffs.  Their first pick isn't until pick 59, as they lost their 1st round pick to the Eagles when they moved up in the first round last year and selected Jeff Otah.  With pick 28 being the one traded, I'd say that was a pretty good move on the Panthers part.  Otah looks to be a very good player, and is much better than any OT that will be around at 28 this year.  They also lost their 7th round pick when they traded it to Miami for Josh McCown.  

I've combined rankings for the Panthers based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Panthers stacked up this season:

The FO numbers look like a team that finished 12-4: only 1 category out of the top 10, which is probably right on.  It makes it really easy to figure out where the Panthers will be looking in the draft (DT, LB).  I'm actually surprised they finished 3rd in Rush Offense, as Williams and Stewart are the best RB duo in the NFL. 

The Passing DVOA number is interesting as well, especially in light of the playoff performance of Delhomme.  Overall he had a pretty good season, and they finished higher than both the Cowboys and Steelers, who have "elite" QBs.  Delhomme will be in the last year of his contract in 2009, and it doesn't look like the Panthers are moving quickly to lock him up long term.  Will they draft a QB this year?  I'll let the readers of Cat Scratch Reader tell you what they think:

While I agree that teams should draft "value" players if they fall in their lap, this almost never happens with a QB.  Almost every QB goes higher than they should, so I don't think they should take one this year.  Here's my plan:  If Delhomme plays well again this year, he'll certainly earn himself an extension, so it works out for the Panthers, and they didn't waste a pick this year (especially when they only have 5 of them).  If he fails, the Panthers will fail, and pick higher up in the draft.  There will be 2 elite QBs in next year's draft (Bradford, McCoy), as well as Tim Tebow.  Much better prospects than this year's crop.

The biggest change in the coaching staff this year was Defensive Coordinator Mike Trgovac decided not to come back next year.  He later gave some reasoning for his decision, which you can decide for yourself whether you believe him.  Taking Trgovac's place is former Indianapolis DC Ron Meeks.  Meeks brings lots of experience working for Tony Dungy, and will most definitely run the Tampa-2 defense.  Jaxon, head writer at Cat Scratch Reader, hopes Meeks can bring some much needed creativity to the Panther's defense:

The big question Panther fans have is whether Meeks can inject some life into a defense that became too predictable in the last half of the season. If Polian is right then Meeks is at least capable of bringing some creativity and spirit to the defense

The Panthers had 2 big name Free Agents-to-be this offseason, so there was much speculation as to who they would franchise, when the time came.  The Panthers took care of OT Jordan Gross, signing him to a long term deal, and immediately slapped the franchise tag on DE Julius Peppers.  Oh what a saga it's been with him.

Peppers has proclaimed he doesn't want to play for the Panthers anymore, and wants to play in a 3-4 defense.  He then said he only wants to be traded to 4 teams, 3 of which in the NFC.  We know Dallas is one, and rumor has it the other 2 NFC teams are the Falcons and Buccaneers.  Tampa I see, although they don't play a 3-4 defense.  Atlanta I just can't see happening.  It just doesn't seem right.

As far as the AFC team goes, Jaxon speculates it is the Dolphins, which is a definite possibility.  I also think Baltimore (3-4 Defense), Denver (3-4 Defense), or Tennessee (4-3 Defense) could be this 4th team.  Tennessee obviously had a very good year, and have a very good defense.  They'll also have loads of cap space once Haynesworth signs somewhere else.

If I were the Panthers front office, I'd make Peppers make the decision to play, unless the Panthers get what they want out of it (think Jared Allen deal).  This would be great for the Panthers, as they'd get back in the first round, and get a top DL prospect.  However, I would not force a trade either, just to get a disgruntled Peppers out of the organization.  If he really doesn't want to play for the Panthers, make him sit out the season, devaluing his worth.

The Panthers had a very successful season last year, but do have some holes, and could have a very large one at DE.  While not having a first round pick (for now) hurts, they should be able to fill their needs through the draft.  Although I'd bet against a repeat division title, since it hasn't happened yet in the NFC South.