Team Profile: Cincinnati Bengals

by shake n bake on Feb 4, 2009 8:24 PM EST in Mocking the AFC North

Round	Pick	Overall
1	6	6
2	6	38
3	6	70
4	6	102
5	6	134
6	6	166
7	6	198

The 2007 Bengals were as close to an average team as it gets, 7 wins, gave up 5 more points than the scored and registered a -0.1% DVOA. The 08 Bengals were suppose to build on that.

NFL.com Stats	Record	Scoring Off.	Total Off.	Pass Off.	Rush Off.	Scoring Def.	Total Def.	Pass Def.	Rush Def.
NFL.com Stats	4-11-1	32nd	32nd	30th	29th	19th	13th	15th	21th
Football Outsiders	Pythag Wins	Total DVOA	Offense DVOA	Pass Off.	Rush Off.	Defense DVOA	Pass Def.	Rush Def.	ST DVOA
Football Outsiders	3.2	27th	29th	27th	32nd	15th	21st	7th	24th

The defense actually did, giving up 3 TDs less against a much more powerful lineup of offenses and rising from 24th in 15th in DVOA. They were able to stop the run reasonably well (7th in Run D), but despite two big money DEs, Cincy's pass rush topped only the historically bad Cheifs, recording just 17 sacks (league average was 33). Given the performance of the pass rush a 21st ranked pass D is a pretty impressive performance from the back 7.

via stripehype.com

On the bright side the massive regression on offense is a bit easier to explain and correct. The Bengals dropped from the 6th ranked offense, to the 29th. The passing game dropped from 6th to 27th, as franchise QB Carson Palmer threw only 14 passes this season. Career backup Ryan Fitzpatrick with 135 attempts (all in 2005) in his career took over and passed the ball 372 times with disastrous results. By Football Outsiders stats only Marc Bulger performed worse among QBs to get 250+ attempts. Let's not dump all the blame on Fitzpatrick though. The Bengals allowed the most sacks in the league (51), FO's opponent and situational adjustments soften the ranking to 27th, but the pass pro was terrible. The re-addition of Palmer will go a long ways, but the pass pro needs to be addressed.

via d.yimg.com

The run game is a bit more concerning. In 2007 a Kenny Watson/broken down Rudi Johnson combo made for a mediocre run game (with Watson the far more effective of the pair. In 2008 Watson sat behind Chris Perry and new addition Cedric Benson. Perry was historically bad, averaging under 3 YPC and fumbling 5 times in just 103 carries. Benson continued to be the bust he was in Chicago and was only a slight upgrade from 07 Rudi Johnson. The pair led the Bengals run game to the very bottom of the league. The backs maybe not be totally to blame though (well Perry's fumbles are certainly his fault) The Bengals OL ranked dead last in FOs adjusted line yards.

via cache.daylife.com

The advanced stats, the simple stats and the eyeball test come to the same conclusion, that OL was bad, awful, terrible, not at all good at their jobs. The pass rush is also lacking, but Cincy Jungle head writer Kirkendall has discussed why the Bengals are unlikely to invest heavily in another DE.

The Bengals problems start on the lines, but they may be able to go without an elite tackle by sliding young guard Andrew Whitworth outside and promoting promising backup Anthony Collins to a starting tackle spot. If the Bengals feel that's a viable option at the tackles they could add another piece to their improving defense or replace Cedric Benson with a top rookie RB.

Bengals head writer Kirkendall gave a game ready center as a major need. Likely one, maybe both of the classes top centers (Alex Mack and Max Unger) could be available with the Bengals second round pick.

The Bengals will need to bolter the offensive line that killed any chance of an effective offense under Fitzpatrick, but may use the #6 pick on a defensive star.

Favorite picks for the Bengals at #6 are defenders MLB Rey Maualuga, DE Brian Orakpo and DT B.J. Raji, offensive darkhorse pick RB Chris Wells and tackles Micheal Oher, Andre Smith and Mocking Dan's pick in his first mock draft...

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: After allowing 51 sacks in 2008, the Bengals are desperate for help along the offensive line. Even if left tackle Levi Brown and right tackle Stacy Andrews are healthy, Monroe has the ability to start ahead either of them.

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Comments

I’ve got to disagree about Benson a little. What I saw from him as the year painfully progressed was a tough, quick aggressive runner who, despite being shackled by that offensive offensive line and a nonexistent passing attack, really started to shine by year’s end. Is he the franchise running back? I won’t go there yet but I do believe that he and, say, a scatback type change of pace back solidify that position. Plus, as much of a tOSU homer as I am, I really don’t want Beanie Wells at 6.

While the O-Line is the elephant in the room, the need of needs, I think passing on one of the big three tackles at the top of the board may be the wisest move. If we take Whitworth from guard back to right tackle opposite Anthony Collins, then it’s a bookend for Bobbie Williams we’re missing. Either Duke Robinson or Herman Johnson will be available for our second round pick. Yes, I know, we’d be missing out on Mack and Unger but, in my mind, Arkansas’ Luigs, ’Bama’s Caldwell, and Louisville’s Woods are close enough and at least one of them will be there in round three.

Which leaves that 6th pick. Orakpo’s a possibility, though there’s that DE financial sinkhole here already- maybe if we rid ourselves of either Geathers or Odom? Raji’ would be a great addition to the D-Line and I could definitely see him and Pat Sims as the innards of our future 4-3. My pick, however, would probably be Maulauga because, not only would a backer corps of he, Rivers, and Brandon Johnson be formidable but he’s got that instinctual ferociousness you just can’t coach. He’s like Troy Polamalu’s older, scarier brother. We need a defensive identity like that. Plus, Sims and Peko- with, hopefully, Jason Shirley’s rise, means we could do without Raji and Orakpo’s workout warrior/hyperathleticism makes me think of last year’s version, Vernon Gholston, and, while not quite a bust, he certainly made no noticeable impact on the Jets D. We could also look at trading down in the first for a Laurinaitis or a Peria Jerry and that extra third rounder.

Lastly, predicting any Bengal’s decision using research and logic is the definition of an inexact science. And it’s C-I-N-C-I-N-N-A-T-I and our Levi is Jones, not Brown.

by IgnatiusJReilly on Feb 5, 2009 6:14 PM EST reply actions

apologies for the misplaced N

but,

1. on the Benson/Wells thing I refer you to you second to last comment on the Bengals lack of research/logic. I don’t think it’s the right thing to do, but it’s possible and I’ve seen it mentioned.

2. Levi Jones/Brown is on Mocking Dan not me. I just copy-pasted

3. You can’t have Peria Jerry, he’s mine (Indy’s)

I'm so fly,
I take this parachute off
I might fall and die
-Young Jeezy "Go Crazy"

by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

we've got a draft department that's a one man band

and we show up at the combine in a rented sedan- cos we all fit in there. The football genius part of Paul ran down the leg of his missus while little Mikey was stirring to blastocysthood in her hoohah. You may be right about Ced but one need not spend pick 6 money to get a servicable NFL back. Lately, I’ve been thinking we should go get Darren Sproles to both share the carries with Benson and to jack up the return game. I’m also thinking a later round pick up of A&M Clydesdale, Jorvorskie Lane, would give us a 280lb. fullback with retail tailback speed and good hands- and get the horrible converted TE, Dan Coats, out of the backfield. I’d like to solve the TJ dilemna by trading him to the Eagles for one of their firsts- of course, I’d also like to trade Chad straight up to Arizona for Anquan Boldin just to illustrate my grip on reality.

Oh, and I hate to burst our individual bubbles but Jerry is probably gone before either you or us with Philly’s 22 or 28 can get him. I’m calling him to Washington at 13.

by IgnatiusJReilly on Feb 7, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions