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SB Nation Writers Mock Draft: Round 1, Pick #4


No. 4

SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS

Pick by Field Gulls

Matt Stafford
Quarterback

Georgia

Kicking off the second day of the SB Nation mock draft is John Morgan, one of the most analytical bloggers on all of the SB network. He, of course, runs Field Gulls.

You can’t blame Seahawks fans. Before Matt Hasselbeck, Jim Zorn was unarguably the second best quarterback in franchise history. Zorn was a man of many tricks: A career 53 percent completion percentage, 4.3 ANY/A, 54 fumbles, 111 touchdowns and 141 interceptions. You can’t blame Seahawks fans. Before Matt Hasselbeck, Dave Krieg was unarguably the best quarterback in franchise history. Krieg was least seen beneath the rubble of Mile High Stadium, scrambling for the ball.

You can’t blame Seahawks fans for holding out hope that 33 year old Matt Hasselbeck has plenty left in the tank. Relative to Zorn and Krieg, Hasselbeck is Favrian, Marino-esque. But even Brett Favre and Dan Marino endured decline as they entered their mid- to late-thirties.

From 1991 to 2006, Miami drafted one quarterback: Josh Heupel. As Marino began to decline from 1997 to 1999, the Dolphins refused to believe the good times would ever end. Marino ended his career watching his Dolphins from the sideline. Damon Huard caddied the second half of a 62-7 Division Round blowout courtesy the Jaguars. For the next four years, Miami matched a dominant defense with a sputtering offense led mostly by veteran journeyman Jay Fiedler. It won one playoff game. Stopgap Chad Pennington aside, Miami has yet to adequately replace Marino.

Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005. Favre was fresh off one of, if not the best seasons of his career. In 2004, he led the league in touchdowns and touchdown percentage and had the lowest percentage of passing plays resulting in a sack. He also set a career high in completion percentage, 65.4 percent. Favre looked like a 34-year-old entering an almost unprecedented autumnal peak. In 2005, Green Bay finished 4-12. It was the worst season of Favre’s career. Favre hung around two more seasons, alternately awful and great, but when he finally left, Green Bay wasn’t starting from scratch or scraping together journeymen, former busts and game managers. No, in his first season with the team, playing opposite a broken defense and playing through injury, Rodgers had a season that rivals any in Favre’s career.

For all the notorious risk of drafting a quarterback early in the first, the riskier proposition is assuming you can fill the position through other means. Great quarterback play is the trend-fast model for winning a Super Bowl, and great quarterbacks are historically taken early in the first round. In fact, the first quarterback drafted enjoys many advantages. He averages 6.4 years starting, a full 2.5 years more than the second quarterback drafted, the largest split between picks. He is also 81% likely to be better than the second quarterback drafted.

 

Star-divide

So, with Hasselbeck barreling toward 34, coming off an injury-riddled 2008, his second truly bad season in the last three years, and the top overall quarterback available at four, one question remains: Is Matthew Stafford a great quarterback prospect? The truth is, no one absolutely knows. He has exceptional tools, has been considered an NFL prospect since high school, played in one of the more pro-friendly offensive systems in college, is brilliant in stretches, but also young, capable of the big lapse, and known for poor decision making. What I can say is that Stafford would not have to start right away. Like Rodgers, he could learn under a skilled veteran. Unlike JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch and Akili Smith, Stafford would not join a dysfunctional team in ruins. Nor would he be expected to save the franchise. And when 2011 rolls around, or even the end of 2010, and Stafford is finally entrusted with the team’s future, he’ll have been given every opportunity to succeed. And should he fail, it’s still better theatre than watching Rudy-Graham Painter and his Traveling Pizzottis.

MTD thoughts: Stafford has as much potential as any player in this draft. This is a solid pick because he'll get to sit behind Hasselbeck for at least a year and learn. Few quarterbacks are better at making in-game decisions than Hasselbeck and that would be a boon for Stafford's career.

However, a couple things make it just a solid selection. Seattle isn't too far away from being a playoff team again. Why not fix up a position more in need? Also, how will Hasselbeck react to a high first-round pick right behind him?

Mocking the Draft's Top Five Remaining Prospects - WR Michael Crabtree, CB Malcolm Jenkins, OT Michael Oher, RB Knowshon Moreno, DE Brian Orakpo

1 recs  |  Comment 11 comments |

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A curveball (at least in my book) at the top of the draft.

The justification is sound. I just didn’t see it coming.

Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.

by MattRichWarren on Mar 26, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Out of curiosity

Can teams trade out of spots in this mock?

by SoCalStites on Mar 26, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nope.

Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.

by Chris Pokorny on Mar 26, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he's not taken by the Seahawks....

I could see other teams possible trading up to get him. So i can see where you would be going with this question. As a UGA fan, i love this pick and this situation for Stafford.

My opinion of Stafford is much more sober than most uga fans and NFL scouts. I don’t think he’ll be the next Peyton Manning and i doubt (but wouldn’t be surprised by) him having the early success of Matt Ryan or Ben Rothlesberger. I think he would have benefited greatly by staying an extra year, he improved noticeably each year from starting half of his freshman year, to his decent sophomore and a solid Junior year. A final Senior year would have completed his maturity process and polished up some of the question marks against him (decision making i think being the biggest one) But i can’t blame him for leaving. I know people are tired of hearing this, but physically he’s the most prepared NFL QB to ever come into the draft (and this is where many people become blind to some of his faults)

 I do not think he should start the first game of the season wherever he ends up. Yet i would feed him as much experience as i could to prepare him. Plenty of pre-season and bits of the regular season when its appropriate. I know Matt is competitive, and holding back the starting job from him initially i think will go a long way to motivating him to polish his game, compete his hardest, and truly prove that he is the best franchise QB in 2009 that Mel Kiper banks his hairpiece on.

Seahawks might be the best situation for him, to sit behind Hasselbeck (sp?) for a bit, learning and proving he can do the job. I don’t like him in San Fran, or New York. Chicago i think would be so-so, but unlikely he ends up there.

Do you not know that those who run in a race all run, but only one receives the prize? Run in such a way that you may win.

I Corinthians 9:24

by Southern Dawg on Mar 26, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the best

articles I have read in a very long time. I have read the QB debate over and over again, and this one puts out the best argument I have read.

by germpod on Mar 26, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Other QB stats to consider.

I think if Stafford, or to a slightly lesser degree, Sanchez (or Crabtree/Curry) is available at #4 a trade with a another hungry team is possible, what we could get in return is open to debate. I would hope at the very least we could switch first round positions with the trade team and pick up one or more second to forth round picks which would accomplish draft depth for the Seahawks. As to QB’s to consider, I offer the following stats obtained from ESPN.com on two of the QB’s in this draft.

(1) MATTHEW STAFFORD;
CAREER #‘s from 2006-2008;
564-compl. / 987-att. / 7731-yds. / 57.14-compl. %/ 13.7-yds-per compl. / 51-TD’s. / 33-INT. / 44-sacks / 130.48-Avg. QB rating.
2008- #‘s: 235-compl. / 383-att. / 3459-yds. / 61.35-compl. %/ 14.7-yds-per compl. / 25-TD’s / 10-INT. / 17 sacks / 153.54-QB rating.

(2) GRAHAM HARRELL:
CAREER #‘s from 2005-2008;
1403-compl. / 2010-att. / 15,793-yds. / 69.8-compl.% / 11.25-yds-per compl. / 134-TD’s. / 34-INT. / 51-sacks / 153.25-Avg. QB rating.
2008- #‘s: 442-compl. / 626-att. / 5,111-yds. / 70.6-compl.% / 11.56-yds-per compl. / 45-TD’s / 9-INT. / 14 sacks / 160.04-Avg. QB rating.

As pure stats go these #’s are stagering & would seem to indicate Harrell should receive some significate draft consideration by the Seahawks. The most common industry knock on Harrell is that he is a system QB that primarily ran the spread formation and that his total yards are inflated due to after the catch yards.
Here is a quote from Harrell’s coach:
3/19/2009 – Texas Tech coach Mike Leach insists his quarterback is the best in the NFL draft. I know what you’re thinking, asking a coach about his players is like asking a parent about their children, of course they are going to exaggerate, but Leach’s comments directed toward NFL scouts and coaches was simply too amusing not to share. March 17, Dallas Morning News: Leach, who scoffs at the system-quarterback label, angrily talked about NFL teams’ concern regarding Harrell’s ability to work from under center. "You bring up easily the most pitiful NFL cop-out of all," Leach said in a telephone interview. "And you can send that message to the whole NFL. Any coach who has ever said or uttered those words or considers that a concern, here’s my message for them: How could you possibly look yourself in the mirror and consider yourself an NFL coach and not be able to teach a guy to run back three steps, five steps and seven steps? I can teach a child that! "Any coach in the NFL who can’t do that ought to be fired!"

It would seem to me that this kid does indeed have some very good talent and should be well worth a shot with the Seahawks and he should most likely be available mid to late draft.

Jim Q.

by CamanoIslandJQ on Mar 27, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I actually like the idea of drafting Graham Harrell more than I like the idea of drafting Stafford

I’m probably in the very small minority though.

Granted, with the way that the draft fell in the SBN mock draft, Stafford may very well have been their best option. If that’s what happened in real life, I could stand by it.

That said, Harrell will come much cheaper and he can do all the things that Stafford can. His other abilities include getting rid of the ball really quick. He knows where his outlet receivers are when the protection has failed. The high majority of the time, he throws where no one can get the ball except his receivers. He can avoid pressure. He seems like he has pretty good pocket presence. He can play in the clutch. In fact, he reminds me more of Hasselbeck in this draft because he can play in a system where the name of the game is yards after the catch, and he thrives in a two-minute offense.

Harrell just doesn’t have the same arm strength as Stafford, but he can make all the throws necessary in the NFL. However, unlike Stafford, he doesn’t stare down his primary receiver.

The risk vs. reward is what appeals the most to me. Yes, I will agree with anyone that the argument for choosing a quarterback early is more than sound, it makes perfect sense; historically, the elite quarterbacks are chosen early in the first round and that trying to find a franchise quarterback by other means (free agency and/or trades) usually don’t pan out, but as someone who has followed the Seahawks since ‘92, I can tell you that it doesn’t always work out when choosing a quarterback early (Rick Mirer), and that it just might work out by getting the lower risk quarterback whether by the draft or by other means (Matt Hasselbeck via trade with Green Bay, and he was chosen in the 6th round by Green Bay).

I know lightning doesn’t usually strike twice in the same place, but who says it can’t? After all, the Patriots found two starting caliber quarterbacks who were back ups in college (Brady and Cassell), why can’t the same be true if the Seahawks were to draft Harrell?

Unfortunately, I don’t really have anything solid to support choosing Harrell later in the draft and bypassing Stafford in the first, other than the fact that he played against some very, very good defenses, much like Stafford did, and he still kicked them in the balls.

That said, why not draft both? As John has said, there will be a time where the Seahawks will not only have to replace Matt Hasselbeck, but Seneca Wallace as well.

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 28, 2009 5:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Me too... Harrell later > Stafford @ #4

Quote:
"…but as someone who has followed the Seahawks since ‘92, I can tell you that it doesn’t always work out when choosing a quarterback early (Rick Mirer), "

More like never works out… 100% of our QBs picked in the first round (Mirer, McGwire, and Stouffer) were NFG. (Stouffer = draft day trade of our 1st to Cards after he sat out a full year).
Meanwhile, 100% of our successful QBs were either very late picks, undrafted, or acquired via free agency or cheap trades.

So even though this is a new year, (with new people, new HQ, new stadium, and a new draft class), I’ve seen enough wasted high picks on QBs that don’t pan out (always here and often elsewhere) that I don’t want to squander our #4 pick on a guy who already has known red flags. I prefer my red flag guys in the later rounds.

by Kryten on Mar 30, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A couple of questions

“(The first quarterback) averages 6.4 years starting, a full 2.5 years more than the second quarterback drafted, the largest split between picks. He is also 81% likely to be better than the second quarterback drafted.”

Where does that data come from? How do you define 81% “better”? Does Kerry Collins (drafted by Carolina), but currently helming Tennessee count in that 6.4 years or is it just the team that originally drafted the QB? How much of that data can be chalked up to selection bias—Alex Smith has started 30 games thus far, Aaron Rodgers only 16—how much of that is because Smith had to start as the #1 pick in the draft, despite the fact he wasn’t very good?

I also disagree that you can’t get a quality QB later in the draft or by other means. Taking the top 15 QBs by DYAR in 2007 (footballoutsiders) shows only 5 taken in the top 11 picks of the draft (Peyton-1, Cutler-11, Palmer-1, Roethlisberger-11, McNabb-2). The other QBs in that group are Brady, Favre, Romo, Brees, Garrard, Hasselbeck, Anderson, Warner, Garcia, and Rosenfels. Going even further by the posted analysis, only Palmer and Peyton were the 1st QBs drafted in their class.

My general point is that you don’t reach for a QB at the top of the 1st round. If Seattle thinks Stafford is one of the top 5 players this draft then by all means they should take him. If not, then fill another need and try to solve the problem in another way.

by DoubleB on Mar 28, 2009 6:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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