Brandt takes a look at senior quarterbacks

by Mocking Dan on Jun 11, 2009 10:52 PM EDT in 2010 NFL Draft Comment 15 comments

Gil Brandt of NFL.com has been in the draft game just as long as anyone. Each week for the next couple of months he'll be previewing the best seniors at a position.

The first position he tackles is quarterback. Here's how he ranks them:

1. Tim Tebow, Florida
2. Colt McCoy, Texas
3. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
4. Jarrett Brown, West Virginia
5. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan
6. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
7. Tony Pike, Cincinnati
8. Isiah Williams, Illinois
9. John Skelton, Fordham
10. Max Hall, BYU
11. Rusty Smith, Florida Atlantic
12. Joe Webb, Alabama-Birmingham

Looking over this quickly, most of these guys run a spread offense and several of them are running quarterbacks. Brandt has little blurbs about each, so check it out.

I won't be listing my quarterback rankings for a while, so let's talk about these guys a little bit. Out of these 12, which really strike you as possible starting quarterbacks at the next level? In my opinion that list includes McCoy and Hiller. The others are a real crapshoot.

The only name that caught my eye is Skelton. I've never seen a Fordham game. If you have, I encourage you to share some thoughts on him and whether or not he's a player worth digging some stuff up on.

Also: Brandt's cohort Bucky Brooks gives his top 16 overall players. First among them is Oklahoma State offensive tackle Russell Okung. No real eye poppers on Brooks' list.

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And I have a big "Meh" reaction to that list

The 2010 draft class is going to be the litmus test for spread quarterbacks. Personally, I wouldn’t touch any of them with a 10 foot pole.

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by FSBlueApocalypse on Jun 12, 2009 12:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Litmus test

That’s a great way to put it.

by Mocking Dan on Jun 12, 2009 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's true

This is the first year that primarily spread QB’s are being scouted as being actual QBs in the NFL. This draft may not only affect them, but coaches like Urban Meyer.

by FSBlueApocalypse on Jun 13, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sam Bradford maybe?

by SoCalStites on Jun 12, 2009 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This was just seniors.

by Mocking Dan on Jun 12, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McCoy is good. Pike is pretty good. Smith is VERY underated.

by BradyQuinnisBeast on Jun 12, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When I see Rusty Smith, I see Chase Holbrook.

by Mocking Dan on Jun 12, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could you explain that a little more

by BradyQuinnisBeast on Jun 12, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They’re just both big, slow pocket passers who hold the ball too low before going into their throwing motion. I don’t really see Smith being more than a third-string QB in the NFL, at best.

by Mocking Dan on Jun 13, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

If I had to pick a sleeper out of that bunch, I’d go with Max Hall. I’d be tempted to like McCoy the most due to his incredible completion percentage, but I’d have to break down his game tape to see exactly how inflated it is by their shortpassing scheme and just by watching a couple of games I believe that’s quite a bit. Tebow, LeFevour and Robinson all play similar styles and it’ll be interesting to see what teams draft them where. I remember reading somewhere that college starts and completion percentage are good indicators of pro success, so this will likely be a good crop of QBs that will catch on as depth originally but challenge for starting sports eventually.

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by ejruiz on Jun 12, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That theory about starts and completion percentage is really going to be put to the test the next couple of years. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Football Outsiders gang found a new equation for predicting college to pro success.

by Mocking Dan on Jun 12, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could Be...

Then again, if it holds up, that’d be a serious notch in the belt of the stats community. Football isn’t as cut-and-dry as baseball, but I have to believe that we’ll figure out a way to determine the value of players, strategies and schemes by the numbers sooner rather than later.

"The tree of victory must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of quarterbacks and coaches". ~ Thomas Jefferson-ish

by ejruiz on Jun 12, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from what I get and remember of it

it’s better for red flagging guys. Once QBs had a decent comp% and good number of starts it didn’t make a ton of difference beyond that, but a lot of the busts are guys that didn’t have a high comp% and/or many starts.

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by shake n bake on Jun 13, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a good example of how stats can help not just fans, but decision makers

Good stats are great for fans because the vast majority of them can’t watch every team, play every game and keep track of every player. NFL decision makers have the resources to do that, but stats like the Lewin System can be a help because it uncovers systematic bias in the way they do things. The scouts and GMs have gotten won over by these guys, usually ones with fantastic physical tools, so much so that they overlook a key things. The Lewin System can be a check on them, like “Hey guys remember, this guy had trouble completing passes consistently.” Or “Do we really have enough tape on this guy to evaluate him well?”

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 13, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

John Skelton

I go to Fordham and saw him play a bit this year. He’s a very strong player, and thats understandable list given his size. He’s a throwing QB, but does show some notable quickness with his feet. Inconsistent at times, but seems to have good zip on his throw. Fordham’s offense moved him around a bit this year, put him at Tight end in one formation I saw, but that was likely because he’s just such a big guy. I definitely do think he is a player to watch this year. If he has a good season, I figure him as a 2nd-day pick (if he’s picked at all).

Still, one cannot ignore his size and strength. Now that I think of it, he’s pretty good at evading edge rushers as well. Still, I think the fact that Fordham is Patriot league and hasn’t been a dominant team since Vince Lombardi was on the team might damn him to undrafted status. However, if the Rams manage pull out a Patriot League championship this year with Skelton under center, it will be interesting to see what happens to him next spring.

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by IronHank on Jun 21, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs