Mock Draft #3
by darwithabar on Jan 4, 2010 4:15 AM EST
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Here we go again, We've learned alot of things since my last mock so lets do a quick run thru. Joe Haden is for sure entering the draft, Eric Berry is in, and Jevan Snead is probably staying for another year. I think his return is smart even considering a rookie cap. He has a chance to be the number 1 pick next year or atleast the first QB off the board. Anyways, Eric Berry declaring is by far the biggest shake up of the draft, He is by far one of the most talented players and is practically a lock as a top 5 pick IMO. So here we go, Its not 7 rounds, im just not that good. (Mad Props T Hen)
1. St. Louis (1-15) Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska- For the longest I thought QB was a lock but Suh is just to good to pass up. St. Louis needs DL help as much as anything as well. I think this pick could shake up the draft and be a major factor in trades that might happen in the top 10. Suh imediately helps the Rams DL and makes it respectable. Good pick for the Rams right here.
2. Detroit (2-14) Russell O'Kung OT Ok State- Alot of Detroit fans might be upset with this pick but I cant help but put O'Kung here. How could you risk another year of Matthew Stafford getting beat up? Backus had given up 8 sacks this year before today and he gave up another one today. He has also given up an average of ten sacks the last four years and he is not a good run blocker. If Suh was on the board, The Lions would wait to take an OT. The only players besides O Kung that deserves consideration is DT Gerald McCoy or CB Joe Haden, To me its just a little to early to take a CB and OT is a much bigger need then DT at this point.
3. Tampa Bay (3-13) Gerald McCoy DT Oklahhoma- McCoy is the perfect 4-3 DT and Tampa needs some talent on the DL. Its a no brainer for the Bucs as they played their way out of the Suh Sweepstakes.
4. Washington (4-12) Anthony Davis OT Rutgers- Davis is a balanced OT. He is great in the run game and above average as a pass blocker. Davis might be a bit of a reach here but Bruce Cambell has just enough injury issues to ensure Davis goes ahead of him. The Redskins would have loved to get O Kung, but they settle for an equally talented Davis.
5. Kansas City (4-12) Eric Berry FS/SS Tennesse- This is my team and probably the tuffest to mock. I think Cody could be a dark horse if he gets his weight down to around 340. Alot of people thought RB when LJ was let go but with the emergence of Jamal Charles as one of the best backs in the league, there is only two choices here. Eric Berry or OT. Brandon aLberts has played well the last 3 or 4 games but he stills seems to be a better fit at LG. If the Chiefs got a shot at O Kung or Davis, they could easily be the pick. Pioli hasnt been known to draft OL in the first round, He usaully goes defense early and often so Berry gets the Nod.
6. Seattle (5-11)- Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame- I think Seatle rushes to the podium if Jimmy is on the board. Again, Thia pick could be Bruce Cambell is Clausen isnt here which is a definite possibility. This pick could also hinge on whether Mallet decides to come out and how succesful each of their combiines are.
7. Cleveland (5-11)- Dez Bryant WR Ok. State- Clevland could go QB but I doubt it. If you just took over a franchise that has two QBs that have A) Either started a game or proven they can win B) Just drafted a QB in the 1st round, would you take a QB this early? I know I wouldnt. They went on a good stretch at the end of the year so I think Quinn gets another choice. Their WR are just disasterious. Dez Bryant automactically becomes the best they have. This pick could also be a LB like McClain to take over for Jackson if he decides to leave.
8. Oakland (5-11)- Ryan Mallet QB Arkansas- Ryan Mallet has a huge arm and pretty good accuracy. Well, Who cares about the accuracy, Its a risky pick so it sounds right to me.
9. Buffalo (6-10) Bruce Cambell OT Maryland- Buffalo needs 3 things, LBs, OLs, and a QB. I think OT is the biggest need and Cambell gets the nod.
10. Jacksonville (7-9) Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech- Morgan has became one of my favorite players and if he didnt go in the top 10, something is wrong. He is a good pass rusher with great size. The Jags seriously lack a pass rush and Morgan would go a long way in helping that.
11. Denver (8-8 HA HA) (Traded from Chi) Rolando McClain LB Bama- If Dez Bryant was here then he might be the pick, I think Marschall is gone for good and im fine with that lol.
12. Miami (7-9) Terrance Cody NT Bama- Back to back bama players in the first. Cody is a man beast and his size can either make or break him. He is covetted because he is so huge but if the weight isnt under control, he could slip even more. If he is around 340, I dont see him getting past the Dolphins.
13. San Francisco (8-8) Joe Haden CB Florida- This is another player I think will maybe climb into the top 10. He is a perfect NFL corner.
14. Seatle (5-11)(Traded from Den) CJ Spiller RB Clemson- Forsett has been good. Spiller and him will make a very good 1-2 punch..
15. New York Giants (8-8) Earl Thomas FS Texas-If Ras Dowling came out, He could compete with Thomas for the 2nd safety to come off the board (I know Dowling is a CB) but at this point im assuming Thomas comes out. The Giants need help in their secondary. If Kenny Phillips comes back from this injury, Him and Thomas would pair to make a thunder-lighting type secondary.
16. San Francisco (8-8) (Traded from Car) Jerry Hughes OLB TCU- Hughes is my pick for most underrated player in the draft overall. He will get over-looked by alot of fans but GMs and Scouts wont miss anything. He is relentless rushing the QB and imediatly upgrades San Frans front 7.
17. Tennessee (8-8) Donovan Warren CB Mich- The Titans need to pair a Cb with Cortland Finegan. Warren is good value at this point.
18. Pittsburgh (9-7) Taylor Mays FS/SS USC- The Steelers take Mays because he is the best players on the board. Mays gives the Steelers a good safety to pair with Troy. They are both fast and physical, and they both went to USC.
19. Atlanta (9-7) Everson Griffen DE USC-The Falcons need help on the DL. Griffen is someone ive just recently caught onto. He is a good pass rusher but is physical enough to help the falcons stop the run from the end spot, something they lack.
20. Houston (9-7) Patrick Robinson CB Florida State- Robinson is a guy that has to piss scouts off. He is has all the potential to be a lock down corner but has struggled at times this yearIMO. He needs to build up strength, but other then that he is a shut down corner. He has definitly caught my eye as of late.
21. New York Jets (9-7) Golden Tate WR Norte Dame- This is a guy I never really paid much attention to. Ive watched alot of his highlights over the last two weeks and his is my type of WR. While he doesnt have the size, He is a great route runner and a sure-handed pass catcher. I like Tate to be the first WR taken not named Dez.
22. Baltimore (9-7) Brandon Spikes ILB Florida- I know they could take a WR, but people have been saying that for awhile. There is a very strong year for FA WRs. Marschall, Jackson, Floyd, and Edwards to name a few.
23. Arizona (10-6) Charles Brown OT USC- Arizona needs to replace Gandy whether he is a FA or not. Gandy may find his way onto a roster somewhere, but it shouldnt be as a starter.
24. Cincinnati (10-6) Marvin Austin DT North Carolina- Austin is inconsistent but he has all the physical tools. Austin should have very good numbers at the combine as well.
25. New England (10-6) Mike Iupati OG Idaho- Mankins is a FA after this year. The patriots arent known to spend 5 million a year on a guard so Mankins may have to test the market. No doubt he will become the highest paid guard in the league, atleast til Evans signs his deal.
26. Green Bay (11-5) Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa- The Packers get a very good value pick. They have to protect the 2nd best QB in the league. Yeah I said it.
27. Philadelphia (11-5) Navaro Bowman LB Penn State- Bowman has some issues he has to work out, but other than that the Eagles get a great player.
28. Dallas (11-5)- Trent Williams OT Oklahoma- Dallas doesnt need a WR if they resign Austin. They have two decent options in Williams and Austin. They do need to address the O line, Williams is a good run blocker, who could possibly become a LT given time to develop the footwork thats needed.
29. Minnesota (12-4)- Dan Williams DT Tennesse- Williams is a good pick for the Vikings. He is big and physical against the run. He could possibly be the replacement for Pat.
30. New Orleans (13-3)- Jonathan Dwyer- Mike Bell and Reggie Bush are both FA. Dwyer is a very good value, He is better in between the tackles then Bush and fits the Saints offense perfectly.
31. San Diego (13-3) Tyson Aluala DT Cal- The Chargers absolutly have to address their DL. Tyson is a perfect fit for the 3-4 defense and would imediatly start for the Chargers
32. Indianapolis (14-2) Morgan Burnett FS/SS Georgia Tech- Bethea is a FA who will probably get a couple looks but even if he is resigned, Bob Sanders isnt a reliable option anymore. Burnett gives the Colts the best value in a posistion of semi-need.
Rd. 2
33. St. Louis Rams- Greg Romeus DE Pitt- Another player I slept on, Romeus is talented and if he comes out, This would be a great pick. I know the Rams have spent two picks on their DL but they absolutly have to address this pass rush.
34. Detroit Lions- Brian Price DT UCLA- Detroit has to address the D Line. Again if Suh is there with the number 2 pick, then this might be an OT.
35. Tampa Bay Bucs- Sean Weatherspoon- Im being generous right here. I would put someone else but Weatherspoon seems to fit in a cover 2 scheme like Tampa runs.
36. Washington Redskins- Greg Jones LB Michigan State- Jones is a sure-tackler, He averages 12 a game.
37. Kansas City- Damian Williams WR USC- Kansas City losses two Wr in FA in Chambers and Wade. They also have struggled with drops all year. It is hard to pass on Gresham.
38. Seattle Seahawks- Jason Pierre-Paul DE USF- Eventhough he has only played D1 for one year, He has shot up draft boards. Seattle seriously lacks a pass rush so he would be a welcome addition.
39. Clevland Browns- Jermaine Gresham Te Oklahoma- Gresham falls due to the injuries and Holmgren couldnt be happier. The Browns give Quinn two huge playmakers. Probably the best 2 in the draft when it comes to receiving.
40. Oakland Raiders- Carlos Dunlap DE Florida- AD has his dream Draft, A Quarterback that can throw 70 yds and a drunk driver, wait what?
41. Buffalo Bills- Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma- I cant beleive I have him falling this far but I just dont see a team that could take him. I dont think Minnesota will take a QB in the first though.
42. New England- Sergio Kindle OLB Texas- Ive never really been impressed by him much but I guess its a decent piick for this round. If the Jags still had this pick, They would be taking Tebow.
43. Tampa Bay- Greg Hardy DE Ole Miss- Injuries have hurt Hardy, but I still think Tampa gets a good player here.
44. Miami Dolphins- Von Miller OLB Texas A&M- The Dolphins need the future replacment of Jason Taylor and Joey Porter.
45. San Fran- Gabe Carimi Ot Wisconsin- The 49ers address the O line in the 2nd.
46. Denver Broncos- Brandon LaFell WR LSU- The Broncos draft LaFell to replace Marschall. I really highly doubt he comes back. My prediction; Marschall is a Raven, Bear, Buc, or Chief. They all have alot of cap space and he is going to want the biggest contract for a WR ever. As for TJ Hendricks, Maybe getting Brandon M would ease the pain of no draft picks, Id say hooking up with Cutler would be a serious benefit for him.
47.New York Giants- Arthur Jones DT Syracuse- Giants need to upgrade their D Line as early as they can.
48. Carolina Panthers- Jared Odrick DT Penn State- Moore has been pretty productive. A Matter of fact, thats an under statement. He has played Great, no need to draft a QB.
49. New England Patriots- Anthony Dixon RB Miss State-Dixon is a fast riser who has a chance to go in the 2nd.
50. Pittsburgh Steelers- Brandon Ghee CB Wake- The Steelers address their secondary hard the first two rounds.
51. Kansas City Chiefs- Mike Johnson OG Bama- Seriously, How the hell has Jamal Charles done so good. By far, The Chiefs have the worst O Line in the NFL but still, nobody has more yards since week 8 then Charles except for CJ. They have to upgrade the line.
52. Houston Texans- Javid Best RB Cal- Nobody knows if Steve Slaton is a worthy starter in this league.
53. Jets- Ricky Sapp OLB Clemson- Sapp has been rising fast, The Jets add to their pass rush.
54. Baltimore- Demaryius Thomas Wr Georgia Tech- Thomas is another one of my under-rated prospects. If he played at Mizzou or Texas (Some form of the spread) He would probably go in the first. Great pick for the Ravens.
55. Arizona- Quan Sturdivant ILB North Carolina- Zona needs to replace Dansby if he leaves.
56. Cincy-Arellious Benn WR Illinois- Cincy needs to put some weapons around Palmer. He isnt good enough to do it on his own anymore.
57. New England- Vince Oghobasse DT Duke- The Pats need to add size to their D line to replace Seymour. Im not saying he is it but its a start.
58. Green Bay- Kris O Dowd OC/OG USC- Another piece added to protect Rodgers. This could also be a 3-4 De or NT but none right now worth taking.
59. Philadelphia- Brandon Graham DE Mich- Philly grabs a De to pair with Cole.
60. Dallas Cowboys- Jason Fox OT Miami- Fox slips due to the injury concern.
61. Minnesota Vikings- Javier Arenas CB Bama- The Vikings need help in their secondary, Arenas is the best CB at this point.
62. Saints- Demarcus Granger DT Oklahoma- The Saints need another DT to pair with Ellis. If it wasnt for injuries, Granger would probably be a top 20 pick.
63. Chargers- Terrence Toliver WR LSU- The Chargers may loss their 2 best WRs this off season in order to resign McNeil and Merriman. They also have to consider next year and the money they need to save with Gates entering his contract year.
64. Colts- Jospeh Barksdale OT LSU- Colts refuse to draft LB help and suffer because of it.
Honestly, I thought Tebow would be available for the Jags but after his stellar bowl performance, I just dont think he will be. No doubt the Jags try to trade into Rd. 2 to grab Tebow.
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Seriously these get harder and harder
Mad props for the 7 rounder Hendricks, I just dont know how you throw something like that together without exausting yourself.
I still think Cody is way to high and a 2 down guy
wont be picked by Parcells. You are right though IF at the combine he still weighs 370 hge drops into 2nd round. If he wants those millions of a 1st rounder he better go to the combine at 340 or less, added strength, and quickness. His stamina is horrable and draft a guy that wont be on the field for 50% of the defensive snaps at 12 or even 20 would be a big(fat) mistake
nice mock I like it
3 new 2010 starting LBers via 2010 draft
Confidence breeds success, self-doubt breeds failure
If he is down to 340, he might go very high
I dont think he falls out of the 1st just because the posistional importance but I know what you mean.
The Bucs
Wont go OLB because there are more pressing needs at WR and OT with both starters being FA’s but i like other picks
Weatherspoon is a value pick right there to most people
Also, I think they will resign Penn or Bryant but WR is a possibility.
Even if
Bryant does get resigned they still need another receiver as Clayton has no hands and Penn will get resigned but they let Trueblood walk because he costs the team field position with his penalties and even though there is salary cap room they still would let him walk as they are pretty high on Dotson who is on the roster and will draft another right Tackle
Washington and Cleveland will not let top rated QB's slip away.
Winning is not everything but it sure feels like it sometimes
Washington and Clevland very well might
Jason Cambell and Brady Quinn have both played pretty well as of late. Washington will draft O Kung. they have the worst O line in the NFC. Quinn is perfect for Holmgren’s offense.
No im not in love with Quinn
In the West Coast offense he is perfect though. He can make all the short to intermediate throws. He reminds me of Matt Cassell when it comes to throwing the ball. He can put it on the money within 25 yards but after that he is incosistent. Earlier in the year I would have said the Browns draft a QB, now I think they will try to get some weapons.
I actually agree!! Quinn IS a good fit for Holmgren.
by TheRealSlimShady on Jan 4, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt anyone in Dallas really likes him on the squad..
I mean I’m OK with it…any sort of downgrade for them is fine.
They’ve be much better off getting a WR in this draft and cutting ties with Roy.
N8 !
Yeah Right
lol The Cowboys have better WR then the Giants IMO. If I had a choise of them all I would take Austin, and then it would be a toss up between Smith and Williams.
toss up?
really…
I agree..Miles Austin is probably the best out of all of them right now…..but toss up between Smith and Williams? For real?
Anybody else who actually watches Dallas and the Giants wanna chime in on this..cuz that’s flat out NUTS.
N8 !
I watch both team all the time
The Cowboys are on every Sunday and Ive probably seen the Giants play 7 or 8 times this year. I would say they are both about the same this year but Roy Williams is by far more talented than Smith is.
Roy Williams is talented?
Do you mean taller?
The only thing Williams is good at is not being on the same page as Romo and dropping passes.
He shows flashes..but is no where near as consistent as Smith.
I can’t believe you’d say that if you see Roy every week and have seen Steve Smith more then once.
N8 !
I know he has had a down year
But Smith has had 1 good year. Not enough for me to even consider him top 20.
Look
All im saying is Roy Williams has more Physical Talent. If I was forced to give up a 3rd rounder for one of them it would probably go to Smith, but Roy Williams definitly is more physically gift. Not just taller either.
what does 'physically gifted' have to do with anything?
Steve Smith is a better NFL WR then Roy Williams…PERIOD.
Doesn’t matter if Roy Williams was 6"10 and ran a 3.4 40…he’s not good.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 4, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
I want a 6’10 WR that runs a 3.4
Bears suck, Cubs suck, Bulls suck, Illini suck, who would have thought the Blackhawks would be my best shot at a title.
if that was ROy Williams...
he’d run the wrong route and drop balls when the ball actually hit his hands….
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 5, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Honestly
We know you like Jevan Snead. Do you think that possibly, just possibly, you maybe hope and expect him to do better at the next level because you want him to? I do believe you had him going top 10, maybe top 5 in an earlier mock. Was that the objective, reasonable Dar mocking, or the Ole Miss fan Dar mocking?
Cowboy fans...
are agreeing with me.
When Cowboys fans and Giants fans agree…..the argument is over..
N8 !
and like I told you...
physical talent..if it doesn’t translate to the NFL (and it turns you into ROY WILLIAMS)..is irrelevant.
Steve Smith is a better WR.
It doesn’t matter if Roy Williams has phyiscal talent…he’s has no mental talent. He’s a fool. He can’t catch. He can’t run routes.
That’s not good.
Steve Smith does all that…at an elite level. And Steve Smith has plenty of physical talent.
N8 !
Steve Smith didn't catch 100 passes cuz
he’s a slot WR.
He caught 100 passes cuz he knows how to get open, and stays on the same page as his QB.
N8 !
look back and read
I never said Smith sucks, I said Id rather have Roy Williams for HIS PHYSICAL TALENT, Not the baggage that comes with him. I even said later that I would take Smith if I was building a team for that reason.
I guess you just
can see the way that makes no sense.
Physical talent is part of the recipe…but it shouldn’t be why anyone should be considered better.
If you’re a better WR..you’re a better WR. Period.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 5, 2010 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
...
again..name a slot WR, other then Welker and Steve Smith leading their teams in receptions.
Go head.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 5, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
Dude are you like a Longhorns fan?
Roy Williams is absolutely terrible.
Terrible hands, terrible route runner, and doesn’t get separation. He sucks. Steve Smith is so much better it isn’t even funny.
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Smith has played way better this year
but this is just his first year playing this good. He is also the number 1 guy, like Austin is on the Cowboys. Roy Williams is a vet and a totally different type of receiver. Maybe if Smith has 2 or 3 good years, Id take him over roy.
Roy Williams been good ONE
year, and it was in 2006. Any other year..really not better then Smith was last year as a #3 WR.
And why does Miles Austin get a pass then? If Smith has to prove himself over years…what has Miles Austin done other then this year?
Steve Smith has been more successful over his brief career then Smith.
Roy Williams has been middling at best, maybe a decent #2 since 2006. He’s basically shot.
N8 !
I disagree
The Reason that Smith gets 100 catches and Roy Williams doesnt is because Smith is more of a slot WR. Of Course he’ll get more looks. Also, Smith has a better QB. Sorry, But Smith is not as talent as Roy Williams.
?
Roy Williams was brought in to be the #1 WR.
Miles Austin was basically an afterthought in Dallas..I remember him and Sam Hurd were just those big, late round/undrafted WR with talent but could never stay on the field.
I dunno how the hell you can say that Steve Smith has more catches cuz he has the better QB. It doesn’t really matter, cuz both QB’s are very good.
Why did Miles Austin emerge?
Aside from Wes Welker…what “Slot WR” has close to as many catches as Smith?
Smith plays on the outside as much as he plays in the slot too. Nicks and Manningham all rotate among the 3 WR positions pretty much interchangably..so I dunno what that has to do with anything either.
N8 !
Smith has a better QB?
OK LOL Don’t get me started.
I think everything you have said on this thread I have disagreed with .
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
So Eli and Roy williams over Steve Smith and Romo.
that is quite a team you are building.
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
hey man...
don’t put Eli in this…
We debate all day on who’s better out of that…but Eli is a part of the reason that SMith is so good…
I mean, Smith would probably be just as good with Romo..so leave it at that.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 6, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Eli is the reason Smith is so good
Not saying Smith would be bad with Romo. But, Put Smith on the Sowboys and he probably only catches 80 balls, The Superior QB does make a difference.
Or the fact that Jason Witten is their primary option....
Having Smith, Austin and Witten would be right up there with any Passing weapon corps the Pies have ever had.
Of course Smith would catch less balls…cuz Witten is good for 80-90+ himself.
Steve Smith is the Giants #1…but he’ll be more in the high 80-90 ranges once the other guys get older and bette too.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 6, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
seriously dude
I want you to go on BloggingtheBoys and try arguing that Roy Williams is better than Steve Smith of the Giants.
Heck, try arguing that Roy Williams is better than Sinorice Moss.
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
I started an Account with Blogging the Boys
I cant post it til tomarrow but I plan on asking who they think is the more physically gifted WR.
I doubt they'll give you a polite answer to even that question
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
I hate the Giants
but I would take Smith over Williams in a heart beat. That is a no brainer.
I’d take a ham sandwich over Williams in a heart beat.
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Ham Sandwich?
You mean Manningham?
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 5, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
He is miserable and is being outplayed by our backups
Eventhough we’d take a cap hit if we’d cut him I can’t see us keeping him.
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
That just shows how much you actually know
I dont care if you disagree with me, You two are being homers, All I said was Roy Williams is a more talented player. Thats true.
that is not true...
the only thing physically that Roy Williams possess over Smith is size.
That’s it. He’s NOT faster, he’s NOT quicker, he does NOT have better hands, he does NOT jump higher relative to his height.
Talent…at what? What is this “Talent” you are getting at?
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 5, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
cuz the "talent"
you’re talking about..is probably the same thing that made Jerry Jones make the trade in the first place.
It was also the same “talent” that made Lions fans LAUGH at it.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 5, 2010 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
He is probably the same speed as Smith
He is Bigger, Jumps Highers and Is Stronger. But yeah, Everything else you said.
Slot Wr that lead there repective teams in catches
Thats hard because not every team has a legit slot WR. But ill give it a try.
Steve Smith of the Giants
Wes Welker of the Patriots
Mason Baltimore Ravens
Davon Bess of the Miami Dolphins
Thats out of the first 5 teams ive found with a Slot thats plays there most of the time. I wasnt counting guys that may play the slot less then 50% of the time.
Regardless, You win, im done talking about it. I never implied Steve Smith isnt good, just that I thought Roy Williams has more potential. Lets just agree to disagree.
Roy Williams plays slow even though he has a good timed speed
That is one of the reasons why he doesn’t get separation
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Right
I understand why your upset quincyyy, he hasnt played good this year for your team. You have every right to be upset.
Homer?
I’m a Cowboys fan. I don’t know what you mean by that statement.
And you said you would rather have him over Steve Smith also, not that he was more physically talented. Those are two different points. You are now trying to change the subject.
BTB 2009 Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Well that really isnt changing the subject
I would rather have Roy Williams, I said that, Roy Williams plays with a bad QB. If he had a better QB, like Jon Kitna, He would probably get more catches. How he scored 7 TDs with Romo throwing the balls is unknown to me. Anyways, Thats not changing the subject. I would rather have Roy Williams because he is the more talented receiver.
wow...
I guess the argument is done..cuz you are being completely unobjective.
I’ll argue all day with quincyy on who’s teh better QB among Manning and Romo…but in no way or form is Tony Romo a bad QB.
The idea on if he’s better or worst then Eli is pretty irrelevant..both are excellent QB’s.
Roy Williams gets 7TD’s…cuz Romo throws the ball up there and Roy Williams uses the only thing he has..his height to catch the ball.
I dunno if you’re a UT fan, or Roy Williams’ mother, but I dunno what you’re getting at with this ‘talent’ thing.
You obviously have not idea how good Romo and Steve Smith really are.
You also have no idea on what Roy Williams is..and that’s at best a below average WR.
…Why did Miles Austin emerge? Austin was nothing more then an afterthought…Austin has talent.
Roy Williams was brought in to be the #1. Austin was basically just that dude with talent on the Cowboys roster.
Why is Austin THE MAN in Dallas..while ROy Williams is damn near an afterthought?
Cuz Miles Austin works at his craft and is a NFL WR. Roy Williams…probably like YOU, thinks he has talent..but doesn’t work at it and SUCKS AS A NFL WR..because of that.
The idea that Roy Williams has “talent”…is just the sort of thing that made Roy Williams the #7 overall pick…..and Wes Welker UNDRAFTED in 2004.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 6, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How about this
If you love Roy Williams so much maybe you can convince the Chiefs to trade their second round pick to the Cowboys for him. Would you like that trade?
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
I would give our high 3rd round pick for him in a heart beat
I would give you the Falcons 2nd for Roy Williams and a 4th or a 5th. He is still relativly young and has shown he can be a good WR. I wouldnt give up a 1st, 3rd, and a 6th for him though.
Tony Romo has never won a playoff game
And even if he did, Eli has won a SB and pretty much put his team on his back to do it.
Right because scoring 17 points is putting your team on your back
Wow. Seriously? Their defense played amazing. They held the vaunted Patriots offense to 14 points. Does Eli play defense, because I’m missing something?
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
dammit...
no..Eli doesn’t play D.
But his offense couldn’t run the ball in the playoffs either….
If the Pies with the Bowl..it won’t be cuz of Romo..
it will be, just like the Giants, cuz of Romo AND the defense.
N8 !
by FreeBradshaw on Jan 7, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Patriots secondary that year was pretty meh
And he didn’t lead them on a game winning drive. David Tyree made an amazing catch on a horrible pass.
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Like the Giants picks...
I think they may look at Jahvid Best tho…the running game was a problem for the Giants this year.
Dunno how his brain’s gonna check out, but he’s special talent as a RB. I hope they at least have him on their mind.
Arthur Jones in round 2….probably a steal…maybe not a good idea considering his injury history, and the fact that basically all the Giants DT’s were decimated by an injury this year.
N8 !
I figured Jones was ultimate value for the Giants
With Jones that D Line should be very good eventually.
I think the browns have to take a QB.
For every woman masturbating right now, there is a guy masturbating while imagining that woman masturbate.
2009 NY Phin PhansFantasy League Champion
2009 Best Regular Season Record in NYPPL.
I dont think so
Brady Quinn has been winning lately. He has the worst skill posistion players in the league. Mike Holmgren runs a WC offense and Quinn’s noodlish arm is perfect for that. I highly doubt they pick Clausen in the 1st round. I think Holmgren will either go Defense or Skill posistion. It just happened to be that players of need were the BPA at thier picks. I think they had the best draft on here.
He doesn’t have a noodlesh arm, he had a few nice bombs this year
by TheRealSlimShady on Jan 4, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Chiefs
I hope the Chiefs pick up Berry or McClain with their first pick and go OT/OG with their first 2nd rounder. The offensive line did decent against the Broncos this past week, but the defense still has huge wholes. 2nd 2nd round pick, either another OL or a NT/SS/LB. I think the Chiefs could get a good WR in the 3rd.
I like your picks of Berry and Johnson, but not so sure on Williams.
Williams is a steal right there
Our Chiefs would be lucky to get him. Only Tate can match his hands and nobody matches his route running. We have the most dropped passes in the league. WR has to be address early.
I'm fine with waiting and taking Danario Alexander as the primary WR
This guy is underrated and will be a solid pro. In a system like Weis and Haley, he could flourish.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I dont think he will be as good as Williams
I definitly think he goes in the top of the 3rd or bottom of the 2nd.
Colts refuse to draft LB help and suffer because of it.
How has that philosophy hurt them this past decade? Or even this past season?
Most wins in the last ten years and the #2 scoring D this season, up until these last 3 games where starters have been resting.
And who’s the weak link in their linebacking corps? Brackett’s the model of consistency and is extremely intelligent, not to mention great in coverage. Session’s emerged as a pro-bowl caliber defender and Hagler was solid until he got hurt. Even Wheeler, the backup has done well this year. Who’s suffering?
Do I really have to say it
Their Defense has been bad through out the years. So bad that even though they won the most games and were obviously one of the best teams, They couldnt win in the playoffs. Even in 06 they didnt have a good defense until the playoffs. If Peyton had a defense like Tom Brady’s defense, He would have had 3 SB instead of just 1. Yeah, They have had the best team overall the last decade but of that decade they have 1 SB win and only 1 SB appearence. They drafted Offense alot the last 8 years, If they would have spent some of those picks on defense, they would have a better run defense and even more SB appearences probably.
Even this year, With the Colts defense being better than Usaul IMO
Their Run D is ranked 24th in the league. Allowing only .1 % less then the 25th ranked Detroit Lions.
Their Pass D isnt the best, 14th, Middle of the league.
Total Defense, Their ranked in the bottom half of the league, 18th
The run D numbers are skewed by their backups giving up over 200 yards to Fred Jackson yesterday
and what naptime said about points scored.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
I figured someone would say that, but thats not true
Those are the numbers they gave up and even before that they werent above 20
how is it not true?
if they were averaging 118 yards allowed per game, then the backups gave up 250, that doesn’t skew the stats?
Before they started resting starters the last two weeks they were at 112 per game and 4.1 per carry. 17th and 11th in the league. Resting starters didn’t make a great run D look bad, but it made the run D look significantly worse.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Also, Their starters did play some of the game
some played for a half, and some even played most of the game.
vs the Jets They sat a bunch of guys that were banged up but could have gone
vs the Bills they pulled everyone they had a backup for after the 1st
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Still
I even took the yards away from that game, It would still put them in the bottom half of the league.
Also They may have had the best scoring D at one point
But noit anymore. If anything this is a taste of what is to come without Brackett. If your going to argue that the Colts have a good Run Defense your crazy. If you subtract the rushing totals from every team last week, The Colts are still towards the bottom of the league.
Everybody always take it likes its a low blow at your team and its not
Its just the truth. The Colts havent had a top 5 run defense this decade and if they did. They might have 3 or 4 SB.
Its no coeincidence that they won the SB in 06
When their defense play amazing Run D in the playoffs.
How in the world can you measure a defense by the amount of yards given up?
Points. That’s what matters. I don’t care if they give up 600 yards a game, when you’re 2nd in the league in scoring defense, what else matters? It’s their Tampa-2, bend don’t break philosophy. How many receptions did Brandon Marshall have? 21? Who won that game? If you keep dumping off on the all the short stuff, eventually you’re going to mess up. How many big plays have the Colts given up? Running or passing?
And if you want to talk about SB appearances, I’d chalk it up to injury more than the D. Who’s healthy makes a huge difference, and the last two years we’ve had key injuries. And even with that, the last few times the Colts have gotten knocked out of the playoffs, it had nothing to do with their D. They weren’t giving up big numbers.
Exactly, this is your favorite team
Bottom line, Colts Run Defense has been their downfall in the past and I wouldnt doubt it has a chance to be this year. As for big plays, They have given up a 64 yd run so I dont see your point there. Sure I could go back and see exactly how many big plays they have had but it doesnt matter. They will continue to be at the bottom of the league if they dont draft for the front 7. That was my point and its true.
a 64 yard run? one run?
4 Ds in the league went all year without allowing a run over 40 yards. Do the other 28 fail at stopping big plays?
The Colts were one of 9 teams to only give up 1 run of over 40 yards. They were 10th in the league against runs of over 20 yards at 9.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
I wasnt talking about that one run alone
I said I wasnt going to look it all up. If your arguing they have a good defense, try it on someone else. I have my opinion, and my opinion is they dont have a good run D.
If your arguing they have a good defense, try it on someone else. I have my opinion, and my opinion is they dont have a good run D
That is one of the most honest and telling things I’ve ever heard.
“I have my opinion, don’t confuse me with the facts.”
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
LOL
Ive gave you the facts, All you want to talk about is what their scoring D was week 10. Please save it, Ive gave you the facts and it doesnt get much clearer. They are 24th against the run and not near 2nd in scoring D.
you are intentionally stripping off context and making a straw man to fight
with the backups giving up 59 points in 2 weeks they were still 8th in scoring D. They were an excellent scoring D.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Jan 4, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
I never once said they werent an excellent scoring D
I said they weren’t 2nd in the league. As for Run D they were 20th. Thats not good either. You said Im confused by the facts but thats not the case. The facts are, even without last week, (Which probably had everything to do with their starters being out) they still dont have a good Run D.
Also, Your arguement about measuring a Defense
The Bucs had a top 5 run defense and they ran the same defense.
what does that have to do with the point of Scoring D meaning more than Yardage?
it doesn’t address that point at all.
Also the 02 Bucs and 06 Bears ranked higher in scoring D than that did run D.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
They both had top 5 run defenses
Thats was my point, I know what the tamp 2 is. Also, Why do you keep talking about this #2 scoring D. They arent the number 2 scoring D. Whether they rested their starters or not they would still not have the number 2 scoring D.
They had a good scoring D because they had good run defense
It all hinges on every aspect of defense. Run D, Pass D, and Yardage allowed are direct contributers to how good your scoring D is in almost every case. Are you too going to argue that giving up big yardage doesnt tell you if a defense is good or not?
it's tells you less than yardage does
because some teams are better than others at redzone D, which is vitally important to a teams success, and the better Ds between the 20s aren’t always the better ones in the redzone (though there’s probably a decent correlation).
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Thats all I was saying
I guarentee teams that are in the top 10 in both rushing and pass defense, are also in the top 10 in scoring D.
So you can't have a top scoring D
without a good rushing/passing defense? Is that what you’re saying?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Is that what I wrote?
I said that the teams in the top ten of passing D and Running D are almost always in the top 10 scoring D. Regardless the Colts arent the number 2 scoring D.
Why do you keep talking about this #2 scoring D. They arent the number 2 scoring D. Whether they rested their starters or not they would still not have the number 2 scoring D.
I haven’t mentioned it once in this thread. Naptime! said it once. You’re seeing things.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
What do you mean im seeing things
Ive seen you write about them “Having”, In the past, The number 2 scoring D.
Id really like it if we could stick to the topic of the post
I say they have the 24th ranked rushing defense, You say they dont. Were not gonna agree, It doesnt make me wrong because your favorite team is the Colts.
You dont think the Colts neglecting their front seven has anything to do with that and I do. Agree to Disagree.
The Colts are 16th
in terms of Yards / Carry, which is infinitely better than Yards/Game.
And that’s even with the backups playing for 5.5 quarters and giving up loads of yards.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
If you'd like to stick to the topic of the post, stick to the things you know
Don’t throw in your comments that are based on your misguided opinions, otherwise there’s no way to stick to the topic of the post.
You’re arguing against a team’s philosophy, when it’s led them to be the most successful franchise in the last 10 years.
You’re ignoring the fact that the Colts have a great scoring defense. Acknowledge it. You make these pithy comments on your mock and then refuse (REFUSE) to back down from them. Either leave them out (when you don’t know what you’re talking about) or accept the fact that other people may know more about other teams. Your comment the other day about Glenn Dorsey being an important cog to KC’s defensive line – I accepted that. I figure that you watch every KC game and I don’t, so you would probably know better. You can look at Indy’s stats and easily determine that their run defense is poor, but I’ve watched every game and you’re arguing against a team’s philosophy, a philosophy that has been working all year. It’s childish to be so stubborn.
Would you really rather have a team that gives up 100 yards/30 points a game, or a team that gives up 500 yards/20 points a game? If you’re being logical, you’d be more than willing to give up 500 yards, so why keep measuring a D based on a pointless statistic?
Thats not what I said at all
Bottom line they are the 24th best team at stopping the run and their defense has killed them for YEARS!!! Not just this one. You guys are upset, I get it! You are being a fucking homer if you dont think the Colts have suffered because of their defense. They have been the most successful team in the REGULAR SEASON the last 10 decades but have not been the most successful. I never once said that it didnt matter that their starters didnt play. I took the whole Buffalo game away and they still have a bad run D. Their defense has killed them for years and thats the truth. To argue against it would be homerish. Last year in the playoffs, Peyton threw for over 300 yards and the colts still lost because they gave up 130 yds to the Chargers and 3 rushing TDs I beleive.
My point is this, The Colts are a very good team, but they wont win a SB without a good defense. Maybe their defense steps it up and helps them this year, but if they give up 130 yds of rushing, I guarentee they wont win.
Lets just wait
I guarentee, The Colts will loss if they give up over their average. If they keep people under it, They will win.
Can somebody please ban him already?
Dan? How many times do you have throw a language warning at him?
And what does he contribute to any debate, other than accusing every one of being a homer? There is no debate anymore, just people arguing w/this guy over his stupid comments.
Thats all you got
Please, Ive never once got a language warning, A matter of fact, I think thats the first time ive ever even cussed on here. If what im doing is something worth banning, Then they should do it. The fact of this all is, Your mad about something I put in my mock. I feel thats true, You called me childish for argueing a fact. No SB team has ever won a SB with a Run defense as low as the colts did in 06 (Look it up, Its a fact). You said im argueing against the philosphy when im clearly not. They obvious have been successful during the regular season. I only argued that they should draft LB and DTs and Colts fan jump all over me.
They actually traded up in the 2nd last year to take a DT
Two of the things they wanted to do after last year’s playoff loss to SD was to beef up the defensive line to help the run d and improve the running game so they could pick up the tough yards when needed. So round 1 went to Donald Brown, and the running game still hasn’t been great, but they’re a passing team and they’ve been more creative when trying to pick up 1st downs on 3rd and shorts. Round 2 was Fili Moala, who has barely even cracked the lineup because of the DTs we already had who have improved drastically. Eric Foster, Daniel Muir, Antonio Johnson – none of them will make any pro bowls soon, but their rotation has been a force. I’ve been watching for 10 years and I’ve never been more confident in their run D. Statistics may say otherwise, but countless times this year, when everybody has known the other team was running on a 3rd/4th and short, the D line has stiffened and has held. That’s why I’m not concerned w/drafting more Linebackers or DTs. Where would we put them?
Just as an example, since I know everybody was probably watching the Colts/Patriots game, I wasn’t worried about that 4th and 2. I’ve seen the D hold on those plays, running or passing, all year long.
Thats fine
All I ever said is it was the weakest part of the team, Another guy said the same thing and nobody said anything to him. Not even Shake and Bake. All i ever said was they will continue to suffer w/o a better run D. That doesnt make the Colts a bad team in my eyes. They’re obviously one of the best. You guys are offended because its YOUR team, like FB is. It wasnt an intentional diss towards the Colts. Fans just need to get over it. If the Chiefs were as good as thee Colts run D, I would be grateful. Not get upset when people state the obvious.
I argued that thier Run D suffers from lack of talent up front
Your argueing that they are fine without Run D?
also, find one team that gives up 500 yards a game
and allows 10 points less than the team that gives up 100/30. You just wont find it. The team that gives up 100, will always give up less points. I never once said that the Colts scoring D or Runnin D wasnt effected by them sitting their starters. To be honest, They would have gone undefeated if they played. All I said was their D will suffer without talent. Which is true, They havent had a good Run D in years and this year, Its still not good. My post had nothing to do with their scoring S.
As for you saying thats their scheme, Thats just not true. Plenty of teams have had top 5 run D with the Cover 2. The same scheme they run.
Furthermore, I stand behind what I said. I do beleive that their run D has been their schilles heel. IMO, If the Colts would have had a better defense, They would have had atleast 2 more SB appearences.
It was hypothetical
Thanks for missing the point, again.
Why not point the finger at the running game, for not being able to pick up a first down on 3rd and 1. If they would have, then they never punt and SD doesn’t make that last drive. Was that the run D’s fault too?
Im done talking with you
Its obvious your bias is frustrating you and were getting no where. If you think its ok to sport a Run D comparable to the Detroit Lions then thats fine. I would just want more.
Let's see here...
As for you saying thats their scheme, Thats just not true. Plenty of teams have had top 5 run D with the Cover 2. The same scheme they run.
Those teams would have been Tampa Bay and Chicago, correct? Tampa Bay, with a HOF LB (Derrick Brooks) and a HOF DT (Warren Sapp)? Chicago with a HOF LB (Brian Urlacher)? Coincidence?
Gary Brackett is a pretty good LB, but he’s clearly not remotely close to Brooks or Urlacher. The Colts have HOF players at other positions because other positions are more important (such as QB and DE).
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
As for the whole Dorsey arguement
Ill agree that resting your starters did in fact have a role in the stat, but even if you erase the Buffalo game (Which your starters did play some) They still would be ranked 20th. My statement never had anything to do with their scoring Defense, also, I never said they had a bad all around defense. All I said was the Rushing Defense is bad, Which is true. How is that worth banning when your calling names.
The Colts focus their resources else where
Because, quite frankly, there are more important things than stopping the run, such as stopping the pass. That’s why the Colts employ pass rushing Defensive Ends, quick, somewhat smaller DTs, and fast LB who are very good in coverage. This philosophy, by design, will not be as good against the run. Ranking even close to middle of the pack is a win in my book.
Along with this, a good chunk of their money goes for the #1 ranked offense, so the defense has a lot of young, relatively cheap players. The defense doesn’t have to be top 10 in every category, especially rush defense, but would be a great asset if they find good players.
They have won 12+ games for 7 straight years now, so I think their strategy has held up over the course of time. I’ll trust the front office of the Colts more so than someone who doesn’t watch the Colts play (or the Giants/Cowboys for that matter).
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
by mgrex03 on Jan 6, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, thank you
I love it when someone far more articulate than myself will say exactly what I’ve been trying to get across.
I think a bonus to their Tampa 2 system is that it’s so rare in the NFL anymore that they can hold off to later rounds and still find competent, even above average linebackers and plug them into their system w/out breaking the bank.
But, Dar, negative feelings/comments aside, this is what I was trying to say in the first place – why I took offense to your comment. This has always been Polian’s MO – build a high powered offense first and then build a D that can attack a team that’s trying to catch up. It hasn’t exactly worked that way this year, but there’s no complaining about the results. You can draft LBs in Round 1, but then you’re going against the very system that’s led to so much success. The offense is priority #1.
It hasnt led to success in the playoffs Nap
The Colts former coach Dungy, I remenber him talking about Run D several times after they lost playoffs games. While I see your point with the system, I have to disagree if your going to say it doesnt affect their defense.
Winning a superbowl isn't easy
I call that success. And injuries to key positions have killed them recently – Freeney, Mathis, Bracket, even Harrison coming back at the end of the season and hurting more than helping.
It’s just like any other team, you have to have your key guys healthy at the end of the year. Systems and drafting philosophies and all that doesn’t end up meaning anything when the guys that those systems revolve around aren’t able to take the field. Let’s say Polamalu is hurt last year, or even Harrison, I don’t think there’s a chance they win the SB. Or take out Strahan or Osi and there’s no way the Giants beat the Patriots two years ago. That’s my take at least.
I agree
I think we have a mis-understanding. I never once said the Colts couldnt win another SB with an average defense. But, IMO, You could put me and you at WR and Manning would find a way to win. Wouldnt you want to put some playmakers on defense. There offense is already good to the point that Manning can pretty much score at will. Their defense is very average though. Dont you think it would be smart to put some talent on defense.
And im not saying Freeney, Mathis, and Brackett arent good. Brackett really shouldnt be in their group though and he has his flaws. W/O Brackett the LBs are pedestrian, IMO, The Colts should look to fix that before adding O linemen to a line that gave up minimal sacks.
I do stand by my statement though
If the Colts give up over 125 yds (AVG) a game in the playoffs, they wont make it to the SB. You have to be able to stop the run. Im not guarenteeing they dont go to the SB, Im just saying IF.
I'm 5'10" 150
If I was playing WR, I’d probably get a concussion going through the tunnel.
And the pass protection isn’t exactly why so many Colts fans are clamoring for some new tackles (though the minimal sacks argument is somewhat skewed by Manning’s ridiculous pocket awareness and twitchy quick release) it’s the run blocking. Since Tarik Glenn left, and some say Jake Scott, the run blocking hasn’t been the same. We want lineman that can do both.
I know Manning gets rid of the ball faster than anyone in history
If I was Manning though, I would be screaming for defensive picks or OL help. The Run blocking has been average.
I do watch the Colts play
Also, Weve seen it time and time again, Teams that stop the run win in the playoffs. Its no coiecidence the Colts won the SB when their run D stepped it up in the playoffs.
Unequivocally false
Weve seen it time and time again, Teams that stop the run win in the playoffs.
Then repeat after me…Passing > Rushing, and Offense = Defense.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Throw out teams without any data
“Don’t confuse me with facts. I know what I think.”
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Why do you Colts fans keep saying that
It is very disrespectful and childish. Seriously grow up you two.
because you are disregarding the objective for your opinions
and commenting about the post mgrex03 posted without having read it thoroughly enough to know what it said and meant.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
I clicked the link
It said in the opening paragraph that it was for the regular season, I didnt have time to read it anyway becuaseI had to go to work. I read it later, Still saw it was flawed. That doesnt give someone the right to troll. Which is what he is doing. He was trying to get a negative response which is trolling, as you did the other day. What I dont get is how he said the Defense was royally the Colts weakness and you didnt hit him with that 5-year old line you hit me with S&B. It just shows your full of it. Im done talking to you S&B.
thinking you are wrong and telling you so is not trolling
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Jan 7, 2010 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Here are the Averages for each stat, with their Record when a team is Above Average on both Offense and Defense, and the difference between the Regular Season and Playoff Win Percentage (all from ’01 – ’08):
and being able to cherry pick out points that fit your stance doesn’t make a data set flawed.
Seriously? You are going to call us trolls for calling you out on replying without having read beyond the first paragraph of what you were responding to?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Jan 7, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
First off that came out wrong and I apologize
I was definitly in the wrong for calling you two trolls. It was childish and stupid and I really do apologize.
I really am guilty of “trolling” sometimes, but that doesnt make me a troll. The reason I called you two trolling is the fact of how you guys said that and that both of you said it. I felt you were intentionally trying to get a negative response from me. However, That doesnt excuse what I said and I am sorry.
As for the system, It is flawed. It doesnt include the gametime situations that are caused by one team stopping the other teams running game. Thats all im going to say on this issue. While it is impressive that he compiled those numbers, in no way does it show that the running game is not as important as the passing game in the playoffs. Im going to end this discussion with you two because I beleive that it is not a good idea to keep going. We obviously disagree with each other and it will only end up bad if we keep discussing it.
I'm going to make this very simple
I (we) use Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt as our passing stat, and YPC for our rushing stat.
In only playoff games, teams that have an offense that has a ANPY/A stat over 5.47 (Average for all 88 games), and the defense holds the other team under 5.47, have a record of 42-5, which is 89%. Pretty damn good, just for one stat.
When an offense rushes for over 3.9 YPC (Average for all 88 games), and hold the opposing team under 3.9 YPC, those teams have a record of 21-21, or 50%.
in no way does it show that the running game is not as important as the passing game in the playoffs.
So what you’re saying is 50% > 89% ?
It doesnt include the gametime situations that are caused by one team stopping the other teams running game.
That makes no sense at all. It includes every play of every game from the playoffs since 2001.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
It doesnt matter
Stats dont tell every story. Those 8 out of 9 teams that won the SB were all in the top 10 on run defense and all of them werent in the top 10 of pass defense. What I mean by saying this is; How can you judge that passing is more important when you look at that stat. Also, By stopping the run, the defense dictates play calling and everything. Im in the middle of doing my own research and I will have a better response.
Also, What do you mean for all 88 games?
I promise I'm not atagonizing
But did you read and understand my first 3 paragraphs? That’s how I judge that Passing/Stopping the Pass is more important that Running/Stopping the Run, because it leads to more wins.
And I get that 8 of the last 9 teams to win the Super Bowl had Regular Season Rush Defenses in the top 10. I’ve never disputed it. But that doesn’t guarantee they stopped the run in the playoffs (See Steelers, ’05).
88 Games are the Playoff games since 2001, 11 each year.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Ok
Just wondering about the 88.
Im not argueing that stopping the pass isnt important. This is a passing league. To me, Its just been proved that teams that stop the run do better in the playoffs. They can commit more people to the pass. Also, your team is a prime example. What year did the Colts do the best at stopping the run in the playoffs? 06 right?
More of a response
The Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl because they stopped Tom Brady, not because they stopped the run.
The Steelers ’05 version was not good in the playoffs against the run, giving up YPC of 4.2, 4.1, 4.6, and 5.5 in the Super Bowl.
The Ravens were one of the best defenses of all time, run and pass. Nobody disputes this.
Steelers ‘08 stopped the run, but also stopped the pass, especially in the Title game. The Cardinals were awful running the ball last year, so stopping them is not an accomplishment. Plus the offense won the Super Bowl game for them, not the defense. Save Harrison’s play, they were not good at all.
The Patriots gave up 5.75 YPC to the Panthers in the Super Bowl. They had some good games stopping the run, but they also did more important factors that ultimately led to them winning (like stopping Peyton Manning).
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Stopping the run helps everything
Pass defense, TOP, everything. Its the single most important aspect in the playoffs. It is no fluke that 7 out of the 8 SB champs were in the top 10 in the league in run D. Indy didnt have a top 10 run D that year but they stepped it up huge in the playoffs. Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Tampa, Ravens all had bad ass run D.
I just read the whole thingq
Pretty much I skimmed thru it earlier and I can tell you its flawed. Not your work but just the whole idea. If the passing game was more important than the running game the Colts would have 4 SBs this decade. It isnt a fluke that the last 9 SB champs, 8 of them were in the top 10 in rush D. Sure, You have to be good other places but stopping the run helps you control the game. If you can force the other teams hand into doing what your defense dictates, You will always have a better chance in the playoffs. The Colts would beat the Chargers every year in the regualar season but they cant beat them in the playoffs because they cant stop the run.
What are
“real game situations”? It includes every play of every game.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
By forceing a team to throw on 3rd and 3
because they dont think they can run the ball. Stopping the run doesnt only effect the stats but everything from the play calling to everything else.
There are a couple of stats that deal with that
Drive Success Rate (a Football Outsider stat, which also leads to lots of wins) and 3rd/4th down conversion rate to name two of them.
I can only measure what happens on the field. Do I agree that a defense can affect play calling? Of course. But I don’t see how that makes all those stats flawed.
Stopping the run doesnt only effect the stats but everything from the play calling to everything else.
I would argue Stopping the Pass has the exact same effect, but more so. My proof is 89% wins > 50% wins.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I'm going Fire Joe Morgan style
Stopping the run helps everything
Pass defense, TOP, everything. Its the single most important aspect in the playoffs.
Only because you say so. I’ve looked at 16 different stats for over a year and a half now, and YPC is next to last in importance, both offensively and defensively. If you want to show me numbers that say otherwise, I’m certainly open to seeing them. Without them, I’m going to stick with what I’ve found.
It is no fluke that 7 out of the 8 SB champs were in the top 10 in the league in run D.
Those are Regular Season stats, which, as you say below:
Regular seasons are very different.
So why are defenses being Top 10 Rush defenses during the Regular Season relevant to a conversation about the playoffs?
Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Tampa, Ravens all had bad ass run D.
As I pointed out above (which you didn’t respond to), the Steelers of ’05, who were good in the regular season stopping the run, were not good at all at stopping the run in the playoffs.
If the passing game was more important than the running game the Colts would have 4 SBs this decade.
You forgot where I said Offense = Defense. The Colts didn’t have a championship defense, other than in 2006. You must have both to win. The Colts defense in ’06 was great stopping the pass, as well as the run.
If you can force the other teams hand into doing what your defense dictates, You will always have a better chance in the playoffs.
I agree with this. Usually it happens when you are winning the game, so you force your opponent to throw the ball. So stopping the pass becomes paramount late in a game when you are winning.
The Colts would beat the Chargers every year in the regualar season but they cant beat them in the playoffs because they cant stop the run.
There was a 20 yard difference per drive in starting field position against the Chargers last year, which had absolutely nothing to do with stopping the run.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
My point with the Charger thing is
The Chargers ran the ball better in the playoffs. Here are the stats I would look at to determine which is more important. I would look at the teams that won the SB and how much rushing yards a game they gave up compared to the losers. I would do the same thing with passing. I also would look at the Teams Rushing Offense stats compared to their passing offense stats. Look at the cards last year, They didnt run the ball good all year until the playoffs. If they hadnt have been able to run the ball in the playoffs, Do you think they would have went to the SB? I dont. Im not argueing that your numbers are wrong, I just dont think you can compare the percentages together like that (89% and 50% or w/e) I think you should look at the teams that won the SB and how they did against the run compared to their opponents.
One last time
As I don’t think you really understand what I’m doing, which is fine. But this is my last try.
I would look at the teams that won the SB and how much rushing yards a game they gave up compared to the losers.
I did one better…I looked at each and every playoff game played since 2001, and looked at how well an offense and defense did against the run, using Yds/Carry. This is exactly what you were asking, correct?
The average YPC for these 88 games is 3.91 YPC. Of those 88 games, there were 42 of them where the defense held their opponent under 3.94 YPC (Good Rush D), and the offense had better than 3.94 YPC (Good Rush O). In those 42 games, where a team had a good Rush D and a Good Rush O, they had a record of 21-21, or 50%.
I did the exact same thing for Passing Offense/Passing Defense. I used ANPY/A (linked above) as my stat, as I’ve found it to be the most accurate and most all-encompassing passing stat. The average for the playoffs since 2001 is 5.47 Y/A. When a team has a Good Passing O (Over 5.47), and a Good Passing D (opponent under 5.47), they have a record of 42-5, or 89% winning percentage.
This is exactly what you are asking for, comparing rushing stats to passing stats, in terms of winning. I’m sorry you don’t agree with it, but it is what it is. I didn’t expect it to be that big of a difference before looking at it, but it clearly is.
And the Cardinals were still bad running the ball in the playoffs last year, and won despite it. They had YPC of: 3.07, 3.37, 3.52, 2.75. Their defensive numbers? 2.5, 5.0, 5.39, 2.32. Of those 8 numbers, only 2 are good.
One other link for you to check out…this is from Football Outsiders, who are much smarter than me when it comes to this stuff. It’s the reason YPC > Total Rush Yards, and why Passing > Rushing.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Like I said earlier
It still doesnt negate the fact that 8 out of the last 9 SB winners had top 5 run Ds and all of them did not have top 5 pass Ds.
big sample > small sample
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
the plural of anecdote is not data
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Yeah I did
I read most of it, It says at the very start it from the regular season. Regular seasons are very different. As for me spending my time reading something like that, I just didnt have it. I had to go to work. Maybe I will get a chance to read it at half time or after the game.
I liked some of the snide comments in the selections
particularly the (Denver Broncos 8-8 HA HA HA). That was a Lol’er. But then i read the last sentence and stopped.
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.
His release and wind up can be taught
I think he will be a good QB, He just needs a couple years of watching Garrad.
On the Bengals
Marvin Austin is returning for his senior year and won;t be avilable in the draft. Also i don’t think that the Bengals will draft a DT in the first round. They need a DT for depth as much as anything as Sims is good and Peko is outstanding (Zimmer said he was the best NT/DT he’d ever coached). So we need to pick up a run-stuffer in the mid rounds, but in the first seems less likely. Hard to know what the Bengals believe are needs untill they deal with their potential FAs (and the possibility of losing ZImmer to the Redskins) so it is always possible – especially if the value is good
As Austin isn’t in the draft i can see the Bengals just selecting the biggest playmaker, be it a S like Burnett or the red-zone target TE Gresham (though i have a feeling Brown won’t pick him).
The second pick Arellious Benn makes sense and i think that a big target WR will be selected in the 2nd or 3rd round. Someone whose height can cause DBs a problem.
by Sheffieldbengal on Jan 6, 2010 12:33 PM EST reply actions
Thanks for the update on Austin
I didnt know he was coming back. I really tried to look up needs on SB nation sites but I didnt agree with most of the Bengal fans. LOL someone said CB, Not joking. So I figured Austin was a good pick, but ill keep that in mind for my next mock.
Probably doesn't change the draft but...
KC and Wash alternate picks every round. So the KC pick is 36 and the Skins pick is 37.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
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