What if Andrew Luck doesn't enter the NFL Draft?
by Dan Kadar on Nov 9, 2010 2:38 PM EST
in 2011 NFL Draft
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PrintAcross the Internet, NFL Draft fans have have been giving the winless Buffalo Bills Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck in mocks.
However, it's no certainty that the redshirt sophomore is going to enter the 2011 NFL Draft. He's said in the past that he wants to get his degree before going pro. He doesn't need to provide money to support his family. His father, Oliver, played in the NFL and is West Virginia's athletic director.
So what does Buffalo do if Luck doesn't come out? The general notion is that the team would want to bolster its defensive line. Is the first overall pick too soon for Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus? Or is Dareus even worth being talked about as a top pick? After all, it's not like he's lighting it up this season.
How about Cameron Heyward or Da'Quan Bowers? Both talented, but will their professional production be worth the No. 1 pick? Dan Wilkinson sure wasn't. Would Bills fans be happy with Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett? Maybe not.
To me, it's a worthy discussion on who Buffalo would take at the top of the first round if Luck doesn't enter. I open that to you, dear reader. While you ponder that, check out a really good piece Brian Galliford of Buffalo Rumblings put together on Luck, with an assist from your's truly.
2011 NFL Draft: Stanford QB Andrew Luck Dances In NFL Fans' Dreams
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No Luck?
Bills need to try to trade down and pick up a few players. There are a lot of holes on the Bills. There is a chance Jake Locker has a resurgence this year and becomes a target of many teams. Still, I think Bills fans are set on wanting to see Luck as their next leader (I think they have a thing for Stanford quarterbacks). Will they find a taker to trade up for the #1 spot? Probably not. Luck seems to be the only franchise changer worth selling the farm for. No Luck? Then pardon the pun but the Bills would be S*** Outta Luck.
"He has lived up to the legendary billing... And the legend is born in Calvin Johnson!" -Wes Durham
by sportsfan4life2012 on Nov 9, 2010 2:49 PM EST reply actions
I’m still not sold that Buffalo will have the first pick – I think we’re better than Dallas and Carolina – but our record is much more difficult so it remains to be seen I guess.
Since I am a Bills fan here’s what I would expect:
Bills do get first pick and Luck doesn’t declare
or
Bills get 2nd/3rd pick and Luck gets taken
because Buffalo gets screwed pretty much every way possible so it would be entirely possible that one of these 2 scenarios plays out because as far as i’m concerned the Bills are cursed, damned or whatever you want to say.
Vintage Buffalo
Tough predicament
Im going to base my logic on Luck not going:
No other QB is worth the first overall pick, so lets just scratch that off the list.
What other positions go 1st overall: OT? Not likely, not one is worthy for the top 10, although the need would fit
WR? Same with OT. Julio Jones could continue to beast and increase his stock to the top 10, but 1st overall is a serious stretch. Need would fit but no talent.
By process of elimination, that leaves us with DL/front 7. Bills are running a 3-4 and have no rush (12 sacks this year) so maybe a pass rusher, but who? Quinn with absolutely no PT in a year going 1st overall? Doubt it. Bowers? One year wonder and certainly not worth the money they’d have to throw at him
So that leaves me to DL, where MockingDan also arrived at. Maybe Dareus or Clayborn. If the draft happened today without Luck, the Bills would be in a pretty crappy position, but the drafts not for awhile so we’ll have to see.
Remember too that last year saw a lot of underclassmen come out and make the 2010 draft class one of the best ever, so in turn, this class is missing some players who might have been drafted high here. Honestly, this class could rival the 2007 one as the worst
Also, if you make the kind of trades like giving a washed out QB for an up and coming bull of a RB, and picks. You’ll get better faster. Sorry Bronco’s fans but I couldn’t resist putting my thumb in your coaches eyes……..
No talking. Talking doesn't play football, talking isn't going to make you practice harder or play harder.
Classy, man
“putting my thumb in your coaches eyes”
Just class, especially since this post has nothing to do with this topic at all.
WR? Same with OT. Julio Jones could continue to beast and increase his stock to the top 10, but 1st overall is a serious stretch. Need would fit but no talent.
AJ Green says hi. And he’s probably the only other guy in college football worthy of the pick.(Depending how high you are on Akawamura)
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
AJ green, good point
must’ve had a brain fart there. He’s definitly an option but for a franchise desperate for a face for it would you think it would be a WR? My main point is it still comes down to a DL pick in my eyes if they draft #1 overall sans Luck
And on Prince, not too high myself but considering the Bills are like 4 CB’s deep, and 2 RB’s deep, those are the only 2 positions I would cross off as needs. No way do they take a CB #1 overall with what they have, as its one of their few strengths.
The problem with our corners is
Mcgee is getting older, and banged up a lot. Florence, and Youboty are FA’s after the season, and the light hasn’t really come on for McKelvin yet. Sadly Byrd is looking like a 1 year wonder as well. And while a guy like Prince isn’t a traditional top pick, his cross position projectability makes him very kind of appealing.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
I seriously hate to buy into 40 times
but doesn’t Prince run like a 4.5? Would you really want to take a CB that doesnt have elite speed? Just a factor to consider.
You bring up Prince being able to play Safety as well, but honestly, would you want to pay 1st overall pick money to a Safety if a new CBA isn’t worked out? There’s a reason why only certain positions get drafted 1st overall, because only few positions deserve such money.
Just questions I have as the true mocking season begins
Well thats the problem
The guys who are worth number 1 picks(Outside of Luck), don’t play traditional #1 pick positions. If Luck doesn’t come out this becomes, one of the most fascinating draft discussions since Reggie Bush, Mario Williams. And I don’t know that theres any correct answer. I am reassured by the fact that some guys will elevate their stock leading up to the draft though.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
Bills depth
I don’t think we are deep at CB and RB at all. See mob16151 above on our corners. I agree with that. And since when is 2 deep enough at RB in the NFL? Fred Jackson is older and we have absolutely nobody behind him and Spiller. If anything, those two positions are need positions and WR is a depth position: Evans, Johnson, Parrish, Nelson, Easley (looked good in preseason but went on IR). Bills won’t take another RB at the top of course but I can see us possibly trading back to take Peterson or Prince. Although I agree Front 7 is a more likely target.
I see the reason for the Bills not being competative enough is there Defense. They actually have a good QB in Fitz. He’s better than half of the current QB’s in the NFL, and with some Defensive support they would be winning games, ie Ravens….. The Bills need to do everything they can to increase the amount of Draft picks and free agents going through there and sift through and find your gems. All you need for the Blueprint of this is Cleveland.
No talking. Talking doesn't play football, talking isn't going to make you practice harder or play harder.
my question is can Fitz sustain this level of play?
or is he another Derek Anderson? He’s had plenty of opportunities to play in the past and only now is capitalizing.
Troy Smith is the MVP.............of the 4th Q of the Denver game.
Nitwitter
With Luck being a redshirt sophomore, he would be a Junior academically. Couldn’t he get his degree in three years?
Potentially, but if he's not on that path at this point
then it’s not happening.
If we're drafting Top-5 (no way we're #1):
1) Patrick Peterson CB LSU 2) Best DE/DT available 3) Owen Marecic FB/LB Stanford 4a) Kai Forbath K UCLA 4b) Kellen Moore QB Boise State 5) Best OLB available 6) BPA 7) BPA
Patrick Peterson is the only guy I could think of that could go to the Bills #1.
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by TheRealSlimShady on Nov 9, 2010 5:18 PM EST reply actions
Cam Newton could go #1
Athletically he is far more gifted than Luck & if these character issues are just smoke & whoever is picking #1 ( not convinced it will be Buffalo ) could be getting a better version of Roethlisberger
I don't see Ben in Newton
If anyone reminds me of Ben it’s Gabbert. To me Newton is what Pryor should be. I don’t see anybody in the NFL to compare him to.
I'm getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.
"It would be tough for me to care less about their opinion, to be honest with you." Mike Tomlin
by Steel in FL on Nov 10, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Not trying to argue about your boy
but he is big, mobile,a cannon for an arm, makes good decisions on the field & not so good ones off of it.I think Newton has more potential than anyone else in this draft.
Newton isn’t a pocket passer. He doesn’t process information fast, doesn’t read defenses, doesn’t go through progressions. Newton is Pryor without the speed and a much worst pocket passer.
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"You crafty bastard," said the fairy.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Nov 10, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Newton is not a worse passer than Pryor and isn’t much slower.
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by TheRealSlimShady on Nov 10, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think people will disagree about the potential, but he’s also a huge risk. He’s a one year starter who runs as often as throws and plays in something that doesn’t remotely resemble an NFL offense.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
And remember, Bills GM Buddy Nix says he’s not a huge fan of one-year wonders.
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by MattRichWarren on Nov 14, 2010 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
Elway was big and mobile why not him
There is no one QB that Newton matches up with, he is just so unique in his skill set.
I'm getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.
"It would be tough for me to care less about their opinion, to be honest with you." Mike Tomlin
by Steel in FL on Nov 11, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
C'mon man...
Big Ben is a good QB…great even. Gabbert’s a turd.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
His style of play reminds me of Ben
Not that he is or will ever be as good as Ben.
I'm getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.
"It would be tough for me to care less about their opinion, to be honest with you." Mike Tomlin
by Steel in FL on Nov 11, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
With today’s NFL, there are 4 positions (two on each side of the ball) that warrant top pick considerations: QB and Blind side OT on offense, and Pass Rusher, Corner back on D. Using Dan’s Rankings the guys who fit those positions not named Luck in the top ten are CB Patrick Peterson, CB Prince Amukamara, OLB/DE Cameron Heyward and OLB Akeem Ayers. Of those guys I think Peterson has the best chance at this point, but I would throw a player outside his top ten in Locker. Without Luck coming out, he would be the next highest rated QB and with the Senior Bowl and combine has the best chance to get back into the top ten by draft time and we all know how valued QBs are at the top of the draft.
If Buffalo does pick number one and Luck doesn't come out it will be very interesting but I think that
if Buffalo is serious about getting a QB they are still going to grab a first round QB cause they can’t afford to wait and try and get Luck next year.
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by TheAngelsColts on Nov 9, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
Heyward is not an OLB/DE. He’s like 290
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by TheRealSlimShady on Nov 10, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Last I read, he was 6-6 280 which is not far off from guys like Terrell Suggs or Aldaious Thomas who both play DE/OLB around 275. As long as you have the speed and athleticism I don’t think it matters as much how much you weigh. He can play in zone (see his INT against Miami) and he can make plays in the backfield. If a team thinks they can get a lot of sacks out of him in their scheme, and he would be very versatile in a 3-4 scheme, then he would be worth a top pick. Not saying I would, just going off the ranking on this site which have him as a top ten guy so their must be some folks that think he can have that kind of impact as a pass rusher.
Heyward has no where near the athleticism as those guys
he’s more like Richard Seymour
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
A lot of short term memories out there
As draft addicts, we should be able to remember last year’s draft. Barely more than six months ago. Where the Bills drafted Troup and Carrington in the 2nd and 3rd, respectively. They also signed Dwan Edwards. And Kyle Williams is a good player. So I think a DE makes little sense, although I am seeing it all over the place. What they lack is an OLB. Which is why they grabbed Merriman.
The Bills have some good players that are just inexperienced right now. They need to give them time to develop.
Honestly
when your averaging letting up over 150 yards on the ground, a run stopper could be a good investment
Yes, and the run stopper is Troup
He’s a rookie from a smaller college program. Playing in a 3-4, designed to have linebackers to make plays, and there are no linebackers to make plays except for Posluszny. It’s a little early to pull the plug on him.
Good calll, so that means they could really use a pass rusher (don't they all?)
if Bowers tests out athletically like a Mario Williams or Demarcus Ware, doesn’t matter what scheme they run, he’s their man.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
I'd want Clayborn
the guy is a mamoth/beast
"Your favorite kind of cake can't be birthday cake, that's like saying your favorite kind of cereal if breakfast cereal."- Parks and Recreation
I love him, but not at #1
his first step isn’t great…not sure if he’ll be truly dominant in the NFL
Troy Smith is the MVP.............of the 4th Q of the Denver game.
Nitwitter
I'd take Locker
The draft process is far from complete. I don’t buy the Kyle Boller comparisons, since Jed Tedford had Boller making half field reads his last year at Cal. Locker is far more progressed than that. Locker is playing on a bad team. The Senior Bowl, as Dan pointed out in a past story, will be the telling point in the draft process for Locker.
The Senior Bowl propelled Phillip Rivers into the top ten of the 2004 draft. Locker has the tools and has played well enough considering the talent surrounding him, and how many drops the Huskie receivers have made.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
I think they find the "Mario Williams" pick who is their choice for most athletically
talented DE/DT (or maybe CB). Negotiate ahead of time and at least get a good deal if the showstopping talent of a typical #1 overall isn’t there.
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 10, 2010 3:06 PM EST reply actions
I think the Bills would be making a huge mistake if they take a 3-4 DE. They’d instantly be making that player absurdly overpaid. With a 3-4 DE, we’re talking about a 5 sack per year player who wouldn’t be a huge upgrade as a run defender. There simply isn’t enough value in the position. There’s a reason why 3-4 DEs are on the lower end of what the best and average starters make in salary compared to other positions.
Assuming there is no Luck and the Bills don’t like Locker, I think the options are AJ Green (and maybe trading Lee Evans), a CB or reaching on an OLB if they think any are top 5-8 prospects.
The situation the Bills might find themselves in is a great example of why the NFL desperately needs to change the money that top rookies get. What the top three picks make is out of control.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Aaron Curry was once a consideration for 1st overall.
Should have drafted Sanchez.
by Fearless Frog on Nov 11, 2010 3:13 AM EST up reply actions
trade back a bit and take Robert Quinn, I have a feeling locker will be around in the 2nd round.
Fresnobillsfan
You think he'll fall past San Francisco or Seattle?
Should have drafted Sanchez.
by Fearless Frog on Nov 11, 2010 3:14 AM EST up reply actions
Or even Arizona, Washington, and Minnesota?
Teams need QBs and if Locker falls, the argument can be made the value is certainly there.
Should have drafted Sanchez.
by Fearless Frog on Nov 11, 2010 3:14 AM EST up reply actions
it's funny...last year it was Suh, Suh, Suh...maybe McCoy
Bradford was a second thought when it came to #1 overall…then every single day that the draft drew nearer Bradford’s stock rose a little, then a little more…it happens every year. Stafford was the same thing…it went from “could he be the first pick?” to “he’s a lock, they inked the deal already”.
If Luck doesn’t declare, expect Locker/Mallet to have a HUGE PR campaign, good Sr. Bowl performance, Combine…it’s not hard to envision.
Still, I would hate to see that knowing what we know now and how much of a drop-off there is from Luck to…anyone.
Troy Smith is the MVP.............of the 4th Q of the Denver game.
Nitwitter
and when I say Suh/McCoy for #1 this was shortly after the NFL season ended or thereabout
Troy Smith is the MVP.............of the 4th Q of the Denver game.
Nitwitter
QB was always in the mix
And at that time, more here were talking Clausen than Bradford. So who knows, maybe Locker goes first.
Then say hello to the Toronto Bills.
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L.A. is waaaaaay more likely.
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by MattRichWarren on Nov 14, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think either are likely
Especially L.A. Live in Cali. They always have dueling stadium plans and potential owners. I just heard a guy named Sam Farmer on the radio last week. He covers the NFL for the LA Times and has covered the NFL back to LA story extensively. He still thought that football in L.A. is several years away. When asked to name, in order, the team he thought most likely team to move to L.A. He said 1. Chargers (this has been my opinion for years as well). 2. Jaguars and 3. Raiders. Mentioned Vikings as well, but didn’t think they would wind up leaving. Bills were brought up and he said the Bills would probably be too hard to pry out of New York State given their history and the power of NY’s political reps causing a PR nightmare. Anything can happen, but i don’t believe the Bills are going anywhere even post Mr. Wilson’s passing.
Seriously...
I think Ralph will never allow it, and I think that Jim Kelly will move heaven and Earth to keep it from happening after Ralph moves on.
It’s a viable town for football whenever they’re winning, and the team finally looks like playoffs are in the cards within, to my mind, three years after this one. Though as usual, the call is QB, LT, OLB, depth, in that order in the draft, hopefully they figure that out.
by Orlando John on Nov 14, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
No Luck = Mallett for me
Mallett, i think, translates the best to NFL with Luck out of the picture. Bobby Petrino employs a professional offense and Mallett sees the absolute best defenses in the country going though the SEC. He’s not that good of a scrambler, which Gailey likes, but he’s got elite arm strength that will make the passing game an option even in Buffalo’s winters.
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If Luck doesn't enter the draft
…then they have to trade down. In that scenario, who do you see as most likely trade partner with the Bills, and what player(s) do the Bills target?
If no Luck...
Locker or Mallet will be fine for me. I’ll take either one.
Though damn our luck, us being slightly better than the Lions this week means we’ve dropped to the #3 pick. (Still, what are the odds of Carolina and Dallas taking both of them? I doubt either of those teams are in for a QB this time around.)
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