What to think about trade rumors

Between now and April 22, you're going to start hearing a lot about possible trades. They'll be from fans. They'll be from bloggers. They'll be from semi-professional sportswriters. They'll be from professional sportswriters.

The latest getting buzz involves Tampa Bay and St. Louis. The Buccaneers would send the third overall pick, their third-round pick and backup quarterback Josh Johnson to St. Louis for the first overall pick.

Obviously it's impossible to say if there's truth behind this rumor. You kind of have to use your own judgment. But I always take these sorts of things with a large grain of salt.

Typically, a rumor starts in two ways. The first way is that a newspaper or magazine football writer starts giving opinions and has the tiniest line in a story blown out of proportion. Just because some writer who covers a team mentions a player it doesn't necessarily mean a team is interested. It probably means the writer thinks the player could fit on the team. But they cover the team, so they must be right!

Wrong.

The other way is even more like the telephone game. It will often begin with Pro Football Talk. You know, the sage of sages, or whatever. They'll also do the technique of expanding a tidbit, but since they're so widely read by not only fans, but writers too lazy to have an RSS feed, it has a higher rate of becoming gospel. Here is their first bit about the Bucs wanting to trade. Basically the crux of the post was that the team may be looking to trade up or down.

Now, this is where the whole thing should have died. You know why? Because every team this time of year is looking to trade up or down. What team would be perfectly content with, say, the ninth pick in the draft? What team wouldn't do its due diligence?

But no way can this die here. After all, there are sweet hits to generate online!

So, your anchor is the Bucs wanting to move, right? Well, they certainly need a defensive tackle. Hmmm. Ndamukong Suh. They'd need to get the first pick for Suh. Rams. Hmmm.

Wait wait wait! The Rams might go after Michael Vick. The Buccaneers have a franchise quarterback in Josh Freeman and a Vick-type backup in Josh Johnson. ZOMG! Plausible! The third overall and Johnson might not be enough for the first pick. Great! The Bucs have two second-round picks. No, no, too much bro. Just put the third rounder in there.

Throw in a couple key phrases like "I'm hearing" or "Sources tell me," and bam-boom, you've got yourself a hot-ass rumor. Oh, one more thing. Add in a couple safeguards so you don't look like a total dick when you're wrong. Say things like "may" or "are rumored to be." Ah, perfect. Check it out:

A source with the St. Louis Rams tells me that the team may be in talks with Tampa Bay about swapping first-round picks. The deal would include Tampa Bay sending its first-round pick (third overall), third-round pick (67th overall) and backup quarterback Josh Johnson for the first overall pick held by St. Louis. This would allow the Buccaneers to select Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. For St. Louis, the trade would effectively give the team its starting quarterback, a top talent at pick three and an extra pick.

Now, get this sweet item out there on Twitter and get picked up on Rotoworld and you're aces. Just sit back, drink your little Mike's Hard drinks and count the clicks baby. Suck it truth! Aww yeah.

I think I got a little carried away there and forgot the point here. Believe what you want, but expect to get burned. Personally, I pay no attention to trade rumors until it's just a couple days before the draft or the trade actually happens.