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Mile High Report: Why do we mock drafts?

MLive.com: You probably heard this a couple days ago, but Dan LeFevour has decided to not throw at the combine. Instead, he's focusing on his pro day to throw. I don't know if Dan LeFevour, or his agent, knows this but he's not Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford. Nor did he look that good enough at the Senior Bowl to justify not throwing.

Detroit Free Press: After C.J. Spiller, there's a big drop off in running backs, opines Carlos Monarrez. That is a fairly true statement. If I had players in tiers, Spiller would be alone at the top. The next tier would be Jahvid Best, Jonathan Dwyer and Ryan Matthews.

Star-divide

Victoria Advocate: Vikings general manager Rick Spielman says "It's going to be a really strong draft." After the first round, he's right. A lot of the talent that will be picked in the third round is very similar to the talent picked in the second round this year.

Sports Illustrated: Small-school prospects to keep an eye on at the combine. Some of these guys -- like running back Joique Bell or wide receiver Donald Jones -- may see their stock drop in Indianapolis. They're production players, not athletic wonders.

Buffalo Rumblings: A giant look at the possible trade partners for the Bills. This is a good read.

MyCentralJersey.com: Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty expects to run the 40-yard dash in the 4.3-second range at the combine. McCourty is considered a draft riser and this, obviously, would only help.

Dallas Morning News: Conversely, Stanford running back Toby Gerhart says he's running the 40 in 4.43 seconds. For such a big back, this would be extraordinary. If the combine's track is like it was last year -- very slow -- don't expect that from Gerhart. Furthermore, what he needs to show is agility. The shuttle drill will be crucial for Gerhart.

St. Louis Globe Democrat: A quick preview of the combine, mostly from a Rams point of view.

Palm Beach Post: It's clear that Miami's top draft need is inside linebacker. I disagree. In a 3-4, inside linebackers can be found later in the draft. For me, the Dolphins have to address the pass rush first.

Sporting News: A look at overrated and underrated draft prospects. Apparently Jonathan Crompton is overrated. Can someone point me toward anyone even favorably rating Crompton?

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All I can say

After reading that article I hope no one has ever spent the money to join the War Room 160 years of experience apparently do not make you a good evaluator of talent.

by GTlions on Feb 21, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

on running backs.

1. I am not sold at all on spiller. I do not think he can even be reggie bush. reggie bush right now is the best case scenario. I don’t even think he will be that.

2. I think there are some very nice Running backs out there. Check out anthony dixon from Miss St.

He played in the SEC against some great Defenses. he also played in an offense where he was the only weapon and oftentimes saw 8 men in the box. he still had 5.4 YPC. he doesn’t have elite timed speed, but he is deceptively fast and has an amazing burst to the hole. he might have the best field vision out of all the backs in the draft. for a 240 pounder he is surprisingly agile and has broken some ankles. He just looks great against some pretty good defenses.

by bross09 on Feb 21, 2010 2:50 PM EST reply actions  

I

Like Dixon as well. He and Tate are two bigger backs who have sneaky speed and agility.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 21, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I know. I liked the scouting reports I saw…then I watched him. there was one play where I saw ’Bama put 9!! Guy into the box and he still got about 6 yards…Saban looked PISSED…

the part I love is his field vision. he reads the play so well and finds the right place to run. I was breaking down tape and I was watching runs where it would call him to run one way and AS he got the ball, I could see him look at a Linebacker, then he cut to the other side, set up a block and ran for 10 yards. in a zone blocking scheme, he could be like clinton portis was like in Denver…he could work with other blocking schemes but for a big guy, he is an amazing cutback runner.

the only reason he will drop is

A) he is relatively unknown
B) he won’t put up stellar numbers at the combine. he can blow by slower DBs but he is more of a power guys. still he has much more game speed then timed 40 speed without pads
C) the school he went to. they are SEC but they were not hugely successful
D) not stellar numbers. this one though is b/c of 2 reasons
1) he played in the SEC…those are some monster defenses.
2) teams would load up the box against him. he played on a pretty bad team that besides him, had a stagnant offense. the receivers were bad and the QBs couldn’t throw. so they ran a fair amount of options. still, teams would load up the box b/c a QB who throws for 1400 yards, 4 TDs and 14 INTs is not a threat at all…

by bross09 on Feb 21, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm

An Auburn fan, so I’m kind of a Tate homer. He is left out of most running back conversations, I agree. Auburn had a bad 2008, but they really played well this year with a bad class because of Tuberville’s hunting instead of recruiting agenda. 8-5 is very respectable in the SEC West.

He had 1,000 yards and a bunch of TDs, pretty good numbers, especially for the SEC.

I agree, he could play in any scheme. Thats an interesting comparison, Clinton Portis. I hadn’t thought of it, but I like it.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 22, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

portis has great acceleration and good speed, though not elite. he also is more of a power back with underrated agility. he thrived in a zone blocking scheme b/c he could find the cutback or the opening and just go for it…Dixon does those things well.

by bross09 on Feb 22, 2010 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

By the Way

I’m talking about Tate. I can’t tell if you are talking of Tate or Dixon. Either way, I agree with most of what you said. The guys are so similar most things work either way.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 22, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah. i prefer dixon personally but I also have not seen as much film as tate…how often did they load up the box on tate.

by bross09 on Feb 22, 2010 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

A lot

Of teams loaded the box throughout the year on Tate. Luckily our passing attack had some hot games which eased up the eight in the box GaS run blitzes, but teams still played the run when Tate was in the game.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 23, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I dont believe there is as big of a drop-off as you think from Spiller

IMO, I think Best is better, but I know I stand alone in the thinking. I think bross09 is completely correct in saying that best case scenario for Spiller is a Reggie Bush type role. Remember, the guy played ACC football.

If you look at his numbers, he posted up pretty good ones. However, a closer look at them will show that without the Ga Tech game (whose D visibly stumbled towards the end of the year, especially in the debacle of an Iowa game) His numbers are pretty pedestrian. LLooking even deeper, you can see in a lot of games, Spiller was pretty much a non factor. I really think he is an easy RB to stop, even easier than Bush, and I really cantjustify drafting him in the first round.

by DBroncs1414 on Feb 21, 2010 6:34 PM EST reply actions  

Sorry

But I still think Jonathan Dwyer will have the best career out of any back in this clas.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 21, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t disagree. Dwyer has all the tools to be a great NFL running back. the guy I think (like I said above) is dixon. after that, MAYBE spiller (but I would rather have best…more for the value of where you are taking him). feel though that there are only a few guys who can truly take a hit in this draft. not many guys who can run up the middle and handle 15 carries a game. the top 2 (by many people’s standards) backs are the reggie bush type where they have good hands, good speed, but are skinny and shy away from contact.

However (i forgot about him) i DO like ryan matthews.

by bross09 on Feb 21, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

People

Say Reggie Bush is a bust; while I agree a first that high was a hefty price tag for a part time player, I think he brings an invaluable asset to the Saints. Every team should have a player like Bush.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 22, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree he is valuable. Honestly, though I do not think he is worth that hefty tag. however, for a mid first rounder, Spiller is not that overpriced. If bush was mid first, I would consider him less of a bust and would consider him a halfway decent value.

However, I am not a fan of drafting that type of player in the first anyways. Honestly, I think there is a significant possibility that Joe McKnight ends up being as good as spiller…

by bross09 on Feb 22, 2010 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

But to be that sort of player, you have to be an athletic freak, which Bush is. Often those guys go early; so you gotta take the risk. I do like McKnight though. I just hope for his sake he turns out to be a better NFL player than college player.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 23, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree somewhat with this. he is a homerun threat but he was not that consistent in his numbers in college. he would be great then disappear at times.

by bross09 on Feb 21, 2010 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks For Linking My Post!

I appreciate and am glad you enjoyed it or at least found it interesting enough to share!

MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!

by ejruiz on Feb 21, 2010 8:31 PM EST reply actions  

Loved it man. All that MHR draft stuff is money.

Mocking the Draft: Your NFL Draft source.

by Dan Kadar on Feb 21, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I do think that Earl Thomas is highly underrated.

2009 NY Phin PhansFantasy League Champion
2009 Best Regular Season Record in NYPPL.
2010 The Jim Mandich NewsFlash Award Winner.

by Patssuck456 on Feb 22, 2010 11:00 PM EST reply actions  

I think he is perfectly rated. in most mocks he is about 15th overall (or maybe slightly lower). This IMO is his value.

by bross09 on Feb 22, 2010 11:30 PM EST reply actions  

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