Should the Chiefs Use 5th Overall Pick in the 2010 NFL Draft on a Left Tackle? - ANALYSIS SAYS NO!
It is a fact that Branden Albert had a difficult year at LT for the Chiefs in 2009. He allowed twice as many sacks as he did in his rookie year of 2008 (9 vs. 4.5) and was the worst LT in his peer group of “franchise left tackles”.
We also know about the “extenuating circumstances” he had to deal with in 2009:
-Had to adjust to a new playing weight (lost 30 pounds during the offseason at Todd Haley’s request)
-Lost his offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season
-Had to learn an entirely new playbook for the second year in a row
-Blocked next to an aging and declining LG in Brian Waters (and with a C, RG and RT who would be backups, not starters for most NFL teams)
-Had a new quarterback (Matt Cassel) who was less mobile and held the ball longer than the one who started for most of the 2008 season (Tyler Thigpen)
-Directly felt the loss as the protector of the “blind side” of the “safety valve” in the Chiefs passing game, Tony Gonzalez, who always seemed open in 2008 for a short pass when the opponent’s d-line was closing in on Thiggy
-Suffered for the 1st half of the season, as the entire offense did, with a feature running back (LJ aka Valdemort) who averaged 3.3 yds a carry. Defenses waited for the inevitable 3rd and long (after a failed run and a dropped pass) and then sent everyone
-Had to master a new zone blocking scheme
But here’s what you may not know:
1. Branden Albert allowed ZERO SACKS in the last 6 games of the 2009 season including shutouts of NFL sack leader Elvis Dumervil (TWICE) and Aaron Schobel (tied for 11th in sacks in 2009)
2. Every “franchise left tackle” in the NFL allowed more sacks in 2009 than he did in 2008 except for Jason Peters and Duane Brown (both of whom had HORRIBLE years in 2008 with 11.5 sacks allowed each). The avg last yr is around 6-6.5 sacks
3. The only “Class of 2008” left tackle chosen after Albert in 2008 to outperform him by more than 2 sacks allowed was Sam Baker (3 sacks less)
4. Branden Albert allowed the same amount of sacks in 2009 as the “no show Pro Bowl substitute himself”, Bryant McKinnie, who protected “the ancient one” for Minnesota. Don’t forget that McKinnie has the perennial All-Pro Hutchinson at LG
5. The two first round tackles chosen in 2009 who played in 2009 (Jason Smith was injured) allowed only slightly less sacks than Branden. Oher allowed 8 at RIGHT TACKLE, a much easier position for pass protection
Check out my chart below. I believe in "Don" Pioli and he will make the right decision. I will be VERY SURPRISED if the Chiefs take a left tackle with the 5th pick in the draft.
I believe that it's much smarter to draft Maurkice Pouncey in the 2nd round and let Brian Waters and Pouncey compete for the Left Guard position next year with the loser sliding over to Center. Rudy Wisenheimer becomes the Right Guard, O’Callahan is the Right Tackle (having learned the system, had a full training camp and pre-season with the team, etc.), Leonard Pope actually blocks at TE (instead of the human sieve, Sean Ryan who had allowed 5 sacks in the early season games we started him in. In spite of the two touchdowns he scored, we couldn’t afford to keep him in the lineup - 5 sacks/2 TDs = 2.5 sacks per TD ratio! Any doubt why he was invisible for the last 10-12 games?) and we have the makings of a competitive NFL offensive line. Hope for development at Guard from Colin Brown, grab another interior lineman in the 3rd – 5th rounds (a strength of Pioli’s) and the Chiefs offensive line will be just fine.
You often read in mock drafts that the Chiefs pick a Left Tackle at #5 to “improve 2 positions with one pick – Left Tackle and whatever position Branden moves to”. What about improving 3 positions by drafting Pouncey? LG, C, RG (assuming Rudy’s better at RG)
I pray Eric Berry is available at #5 and beseech Pioli and Haley to take him if he is. The last time the Chiefs had an “erry” at safety (Deron Cherry), we had a pretty awesome defense. Eric Berry makes Flowers even better. He makes Brandon Carr much better. He even makes our mediocre inside linebackers better. The NFL is going through a pass-happy, big play phase. TEN, that’s right TEN quarterbacks (almost 1/3 of the league!) passed for 4,000 yards last year. Four of the ten, Romo, Roethlisberger, Rivers and Eli Manning, shredded the Chiefs. We need Eric Berry in the worst way whether Page comes back healthy or not.
If Berry is gone at #5, I think Scott will try desperately to trade down and failing that, grit his teeth and reach for either Rolando McClain or Dan Williams (actually prefer Mt Cody in the 2nd over Williams in the 1st – even if we trade down).
Lord, hear my prayer. BB wants EB at #5.
BBEAR'S CHART OF SACKS ALLOWED IN 2009 BY “FRANCHISE LEFT TACKLES”
Best performance in 2009 = 2.5 sacks by Light/Vollmer NE and Johnson/Ugoh IND
* = PRO BOWL 2009
CLASS OF 2008 2009 SACKS 2008 SACKS DRAFT POSITION
Jake Long MIA* 5.0 sacks 2.5 sacks before Albert
Sam Baker ATL 6.0 sacks did not start after Albert
Ryan Clady DEN* 6.5 sacks 0.5 sacks before Albert
Duane Brown HOU 7.5 sacks 11.5 sacks after Albert
Chris Williams CHI 8.0 sacks did not start before Albert
Branden Albert KC 9.0 sacks (0 in last 6 games) 4.5 sacks
Jeff Otah CAR NO STATS FOUND/INJURED did not start after Albert
VETERAN LEFT TACKLES
Michael Roos TEN 5.0 sacks 1.0 sack
Marcus McNeill SD 5.0 sacks 3.0 sacks
Joe Thomas CLE* 6.0 sacks 4.5 sacks
Jason Peters PHI* 6.0 sacks 11.5 sacks
D’Brickashaw Ferguson NYJ* 8.0 sacks 4.0 sacks
Bryant McKinnie MIN* 9.0 sacks 4.0 sacks
CLASS OF 2009
Jason Smith STL INJURED
Eugene Monroe JAX 7.0 sacks
Michael Oher BAL 8.0 sacks at RIGHT TACKLE
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dude, this is an excellent analysis!
I had no idea that all those LTs allowed more sacks in 09 than 08, wonder why…. and all the circumstances that may have lead to Alberts sophmore slump seem valid.
only ONE problems, the only way Berry makes it past TB is if a DT is still there, that only happens if ST L goes with QB instead of Suh.
So who is your plan B (not LT) if Berry not there ? (assuming no trade down) you dont want Williams at NT at #5 (understandable) , so….McClain? maybe Dez Bryant? would you concider QB if one or both avail?
Durst
My plan B (as unsatisfying as it may be) is described in the post above.
If Berry is gone at #5, I think Scott will try desperately to trade down and failing that, grit his teeth and reach for either Rolando McClain or Dan Williams (actually prefer Mt Cody in the 2nd over Williams in the 1st – even if we trade down).
But Andre the Large is not playing LT. He is the second highest Guard ever selected.
Leonard Davis was taken with the #2 pick. I don’t know if they thought he might play Left Tackle, but I believe most of his career has been at Guard. Robert Gallery is the same story, although he was picked to play Left Tackle not Guard.
by NorthLeft12 on Feb 25, 2010 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
L Davis was drafted to be a tackle
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 25, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Good work bbear!
There is some kind of reflex that kicks in when a “Draft Guru” sees a team that allows a bunch of sacks [say over 40] that you replace the Left Tackle with a rookie and move the old LT to another position. VOILA! Problem solved.
Just a note about Matt Cassel’s mobility. He is actually a decently mobile QB. His problem is his indecisiveness. The New England Sacks Allowed totals for the last three years:
2007 – 21
2008 – 48
2009 – 18
Brady was the QB in 2007 and 2009. Cassel was the QB in 2008. The O line was virtually unchanged except for Sebastian Vollmer [a rookie, a good one but a rookie anyways] playing ten games at LT and RT.
Please don’t tell me that Brady is more mobile than Cassel.
NorthLeft
Couldn’t agree more. Cassel holds the ball longer than Brady. Cassel is less mobile and holds the ball longer than Thigpen. Sacks can be misleading depending on QB.
Ryan Clady went from 0.5 sacks to 6.5 sacks from 2008 to 2009. He didn’t get 12X worse.
Denver changed QBs from Cutler to Orton. Look what happened to Denver sacks overall:
Denver sacks in 2008 = 12
Denver sacks in 2009 = 34
Orton holds the ball longer than Cutler.
My bottom line is that Albert is a franchise LT and we need to fill other gaping holes in this year’s draft
Hey, I agree with your logic. We are having the same argument here in Detroit about Jeff Backus.
Except your guy is younger and had a good rookie year and a great second half. Not sure why people are so anxious to dump him and get the “next best thing”.
As you and other Chiefs fans have pointed out, you have numerous weaknesses that need fixing, why use a high draft pick on something that is not a big need? Its not as if you will be reaching far down your board for another player if you pass on Okung. I see you guys being able to take Eric Berry if you want. If not him Joe Haden or Rolando McClain or Dez Bryant.
Wow
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 25, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
You think Backus is a Franchise Tackle?
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.
Winner of the 2010 Chad Pennington Award
Why are you sneak dissing? Why dont you just say what you want and not be shy?
I would waant to replace Albert just as bad if he wasn’t A) only in his second year and B) He gave up 10 sacks a year for 4 straight. He is nothing like Backus and to comepare them is ridiculous. A matter of fact, I wouldnt mind the Chiefs drafting Okung but Berry will be there before O Kung will. Okung will go in the top 4 just because of posistion value. Show me how many times in the last 10 years a LT didnt get picks in the top 5.
Backus did not give up ten sacks this year. He allowed eight.
He also did not accumulate twelve major penalties like Albert. Backus had three. Their sack rates [lower is better] were 1.34% for Albert and 1.27% for Backus. And Backus is a better run blocker than Albert, but I digress.
I was trying to compare the discussion, not the players. If you want to misread it that way dwb, be my guest. I guess you want to use the “replace the LT” argument for Detroit, but not for KC when the exact same logic is being used in both cases.
Albert is a pretty damn good run blocker
but, yeah, I tend to agree that neither Detroit nor KC will draft an OT in the first.
I think Washington will, though
* KC now has the best coaching staff in the league
* Pioli will make at least one trade in the offseason, and 2 trades during the draft
* I'd prefer "lightning and lightning" as opposed to "lightning and thunder" when it comes to RBs
* 9-7 is a real possibility in 2010 IF the Chiefs get 4 new starters
* keep Albert at LT, upgrade the positions that NEED upgrading.C, RG, NT, S, LB
Interesting
So if the Chiefs draft Eric Berry, Jerry Hughes, and John Jerry, that will be an ’erry good draft.
lol
Winning is not everything but it sure feels like it sometimes
by lifelongvike on Feb 25, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
I hope the Chiefs draft Berry
As a Chargers fan I just laugh at the way they are building the team. Apparently no one has told Pioli or Chiefs fans that LT, QB, pass rusher, and corner are the most important positions.
Its pretty simple if you cant protect the passer (QB and LT), and rush the passer (edge rusher and CB) your squad will always be garbage even if you have 2 Eric Berrys and three Tyson Jacksons.
So keep pushing to draft a safety at 5 overall Chief fans, so I can laugh at you when they dont or laugh at your front office when they do.
Keep pushing to draft one of the best players in the draft is bad?
No, instead we could draft Weddle, Cromartie, Cason, maybe Larry English. Also, We have all three of those posistions you speak of filled. Hali, Albert, and Cassel. Should we draft a QB at five? No. I wouldnt mind seeing a LT get picked but I wouldnt want that if Berry was on the board.
I hope you guys pick Berry
The funniest would be if you picked a bust NT. That way you could have paid 150mil for the entire bust that is the Dline.
Same for you except your secondary is actually full of busts
Dorsey was 4th in tackles among all 3-4 DEs dude. Atleast know what you’re talking about. Tyson Jackson was a rookie. Ill take both of Alphonso Boone. Considering Dorsey has over 100 tackles in his first two seasons, that must make him a bust huh? Along with Kevin Williams, Richard Seymour, and Warren Sapp huh? Get Real, Hopefully your horrible SB nation blog and horrible team gets a SB.
Chargers secondary a bust haha
Thats about as funny as you trying to make me care about a ring the Chiefs more than 10 years before I was even born.
better than never
just look at your trophy case.
by darwithabar on Feb 25, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
When
Its the best player in the draft, I don’t see how it could be a bad thing. I agree with you that other things need to be taken care of but don’t insult us. We have the QB and LT in Cassel and Albert, pass rusher in Hali and a top 10 corner in Flowers. You think you’re on some special high horse because you’re a Charger fan, I remember when your team was terrible…Ryan Leaf anybody. Why don’t you come back when you guys have actually got the Lombardi trophy, instead of choking every time you’re in the playoffs. Sure our team hasn’t won a SB in a while but your team hasn’t won one ever.
by Green-Monster on Feb 27, 2010 5:11 AM EST up reply actions
Great work bbear. I really like the analysis.
Do you really find Haden to be to much of a reach to help your secondary? Is a safety that much better? Maybe it feels like holding your nose to take the top WR, or the top ILB, or the top RB, or even QB. To those of us that can not hope to get the top of any position we think your crying over spilled beer when your mug as already been refilled.
Nice Post
Winning is not everything but it sure feels like it sometimes
spilt beer
i understand the sentiment, but the high pick also carries high risk in cap room if he’s a bust and/or not as useful as he could be.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 25, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
I think he'll go to KC
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.
Winner of the 2010 Chad Pennington Award
Thanks +1000 for this post
LT is NOT the top priority, and as soon as I see a mock with Okung at #5, I begin to dismiss it. (At least if the mocker acknowledges that they’re not really sure about the pick, I’ll give them some slack.)
They’ll take the biggest upgrade they can find, which is DT, LB, S depending on talent available for the pick.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 25, 2010 10:03 PM EST reply actions
Are you really pretended like you know what Scott Pioli will do?
You shouldnt dismiss mocks if you havent made one. That is a rule on MTD and probably the biggest one. You dont know what Pioli will do. Okung impressed today and Pioli said he would focus on O line.
by darwithabar on Feb 25, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
to be fair
Pioli said OL would be A focus, but not THE focus…
which many interpreted as him saying they wouldn’t be looking for a LT in the first…
I actually believe it is VERY likely that Pioli will NOT take a LT at #5… based on his history, and the team needs, etc.
* KC now has the best coaching staff in the league
* Pioli will make at least one trade in the offseason, and 2 trades during the draft
* I'd prefer "lightning and lightning" as opposed to "lightning and thunder" when it comes to RBs
* 9-7 is a real possibility in 2010 IF the Chiefs get 4 new starters
* keep Albert at LT, upgrade the positions that NEED upgrading.C, RG, NT, S, LB
He did say
TE was a need though talent-wise and Depth…
Jermaine Gresham with 2A anyone?
by Green-Monster on Feb 27, 2010 5:13 AM EST up reply actions
well, i hope not
I am thinking a Colin Peek later rounds would be fine
Not a big enough need for pick 2a…that pick may be Cody, Tate or Pouncey
* KC now has the best coaching staff in the league
* Pioli will make at least one trade in the offseason, and 2 trades during the draft
* I'd prefer "lightning and lightning" as opposed to "lightning and thunder" when it comes to RBs
* 9-7 is a real possibility in 2010 IF the Chiefs get 4 new starters
* keep Albert at LT, upgrade the positions that NEED upgrading.C, RG, NT, S, LB
by stagdsp on Feb 27, 2010 8:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Cody Weighs in at 354
I fear Cody may not make it to 2A
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/2/27/1329256/trade-up-for-terrence-cody
well, then... he jumped 20 in and ran a 5.64...
so, you could consider it a “wash” ?
* KC now has the best coaching staff in the league
* Pioli will make at least one trade in the offseason, and 2 trades during the draft
* I'd prefer "lightning and lightning" as opposed to "lightning and thunder" when it comes to RBs
* 9-7 is a real possibility in 2010 IF the Chiefs get 4 new starters
* keep Albert at LT, upgrade the positions that NEED upgrading.C, RG, NT, S, LB
Cody's Combine
Not sure that Vince Wilfork could even complete a 40 yard dash, but I lust for him all the same.
I think Cody doesn’t get past San Diego in the 1st round.
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