2010 Trade Value Chart
(Note: I originally posted this on Big Cat Country, the Jaguars SBN site, but decided to post it here as well because it might be a little more relevant here. Enjoy.)
During the draft, trades between picks are made according to a value chart that determines a value for each pick. For example, a team wanting to trade up 3 spots to get a player would first need to determine how much value they will be gaining and what they should offer their trade partner as compensation.
The only trade value charts available to fans have been online and they are all very similar, if not identical. With changes in the NFL over the last few years, specifically in the rookie salaries and depth of rookie classes, this generic chart has become outdated. A good example of this was a trade between the Colts and Dolphins in the 2009 Draft. The Colts traded up to the 56th spot and gave the Dolphins their 61st and 165th spots. According to the generic value chart on the internet, the Colts acquired 340 value points with the 56th pick and gave up 292 for the 61st pick. To compensate for the 48 point difference, they added the 165th pick; however, that pick is only worth 25.4 in the old chart. Why would the Colts offer that pick and why would the Dolphins accept when the Colts had the 127th pick worth 47 points available for trading?
In fact, according to the old chart the teams trading up won their trades 7 out of the first 8 times in the draft. This obviously indicates that the higher picks have been devalued in recent years.
What I set out to do was create a chart that more closely represented the values of the picks according to the general managers. I took draft day trades and adjusted the chart values to make the lopsided trades such as the Colts/Dolphins trade more even. So here is the Big Cat Country 2010 Trade Value Chart and what I undoubtedly consider to be the most accurate chart available to fans:
If it's deemed spam, it gets deleted.
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Everyone rec it so we have it accessable though the draft.
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by TheAngelsColts on Apr 12, 2010 12:25 AM EDT reply actions
Thanks, Rec'd
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It still has the other issue with the old chart
Look at picks 12 through 17.
According to the chart (the old one had this issue too) it would cost more to trade up from 17 to 16 (50pts) than to move up one spot from the 16th, 15th, 14th, or 13th pick (30, 30, 40, and 40 points). That’s obviously wrong.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Just how deeply can your senses be wrong? With some VR goggles, a camera and a touch on the back researchers were able to overcome a person's sense of being inside their own body.
Ok it's fixed now
But just so you know, my goal wasn’t to just fix little kinks like that. It was to change the values closer to where they actually are today.
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I get that
it’s just with that fix it’s the best version I’ve seen of the board. Usually updates fix the out of date, or the screwed up values, but not both.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Just how deeply can your senses be wrong? With some VR goggles, a camera and a touch on the back researchers were able to overcome a person's sense of being inside their own body.
by shake n bake on Apr 12, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Great job
2009 NY Phin PhansFantasy League Champion
2009 Best Regular Season Record in NYPPL.
2010 The Jim Mandich NewsFlash Award Winner.
Why isnt their a bigger drop off in value from round 1 to round 2
Considering first rounders sign 5 year deals and second rounders sign 4 year deals?
IMO
If there is a dropoff
I didn’t notice it in trades that teams made in the last two years. I don’t think there is a dropoff in value, because I don’t think money factors in too much, if at all.
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What?
Why question was why isnt there a BIGGER drop off from round one to round two. Eg pick 32 to 33.
Money factors into everything.
If signing a guy to a five year deal instead of a four year deal isnt a huge difference then I dont know what is
IMO
2011 picks
I want to get some clarification on this…if people wanted to shop their #1 pick for 2011, they can only get a 2nd round value for it right?
That's the general rule of thumb
But that isn’t really something you can chart. Different teams take different risks with future draft picks depending on the record their trade partner has and the draft philosophies they have.
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