The philosophy behind trades-or the lack thereof
This is the first in a series of posts meant to express ire about different inconsistencies-or plainly, things that don't make sense. It's not meant to offend you, your cat, or your favored team's general manager, though it invariably will irk somebody.
It may seem unstable to start my first post as an MTD author with a basketball anecdote, but bear with me. Things will make sense in a minute.
The Los Angeles Lakers built one of the most dominant teams in the past 20 years around two players; home-grown superstar Kobe Bryant and free-agent dynamo Shaquille O'Neal. The franchise prospered around the dynamic duo, winning 3 consecutive NBA championships at the start of the millenium. However, a feud between the two simmered and continually built over the years. By 2004, Bryant issued an ultimatum: I leave, or he leaves. Bryant being the younger of the two, the Lakers began shopping O'Neal. With one caveat.
The team refused to entertain offers from Western Conference squads. The premise for this decision was the fact that LA did not want to face O'Neal more than it had to in the regular season or the playoffs. On the surface, that's justifiable. But if you think about it for a moment, the idea begins to look both shady and silly. Why? Because the premise behind such an assumption is that you've lost the deal. By ruling out trades with Western conference teams, the Lakers' management hamstrung themselves, limiting their leverage on potential trades. And so the question arises: Why?Because it didn't boil down to the semantics of the trade itself, but to public perception. GMs proceed with this practice not because they're looking out for their teams' best intentions, but because they fear the consequences. Whenever Shaq's Miami Heat beat the Lakers, the team was blasted viciously by the LA press and doubted by retrospective fans. The flak would have been far greater if O'Neal had been dealt to San Antonio, Utah, or Denver, all of whom the Lakers would likely have faced in the playoffs. What does this tell you?That GMs aren't trying to protect themselves from a single player's wrathful retribution. They're covering their asses from the PR storm that arises if, hypothetically, the decision comes back and takes a bite out of their posterior.
The past few weeks have seen a flurry of trades within the NFL-and the (alleged) Ben Roethlisberger debacle has opened the door on speculation for a new, if improbable, prospective mega-deal. A recurring theme within the speculation surrounding deals has been this fact: Teams don't like to trade a star player within the division. The Eagles defied this trend by trading franchise cornerstone Donovan McNabb to Washington for the 37th pick. They identified Kevin Kolb as their starter, saw an opportunity to get a nice return on an asset they no longer valued as highly, and pulled the trigger. That's the sort of management that's helped turn them around from an old team seemingly on the downturn to one of the youngest and most exciting in the league- they're reloading, not rebuilding. Philadelphia's executives aren't afraid to deal a player, regardless of his abilities or past, in the right trade.
So, this I ask of you. The next time you're part of a discussion surrounding this line of reasoning, bear my argument in mind. Don't simply accept what you're told; there's no reason to blind yourself to knowledge or logic. Question that which doesn't make sense.
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There is a hole in your argument
You assume that the goal of the team is to maximize the value it gets for the player and reason from there. This may seem reasonable, but the actual goal of the team is to maximize their winning percentage.
In a game like basketball, where a single player can have a deciding impact on a team, dealing a star player to someone you’ll face regularly can impact the amount of wins you get significantly for the years ahead. And although you are narrowing the market by pre-emptively eliminating teams from the bidding (although I’d argue it’s probably a higher trade threshold and not a total elimination), that drop in price has to be evaluated in terms of expected wins.
In NFL terms, say Philadelphia would’ve traded McNabb for the 50th overall pick if it had excluded the Redskins from the bidding. That difference between 50th and 37th overall may have cost them .5 expected wins per season over the career of that pick (arbitrary number I just made up), but trading McNabb to the Redskins would be costing them 1 win per season over McNabb’s remaining career (again, arbitrary number I made up). If you think of it in those terms instead of simply maximizing player/pick quality in a trade, it does make some sense to keep some players out of your division.
I do agree that PR probably plays a big part in this, as it probably does in many more team moves that people don’t think about as PR moves, including in-game coaching decisions.
That's a valid argument
And more applicable in the NFL, where a single game can make a real difference, and you play 6 within the division. But look at it this way; you’re also denying the opponent of wins by having them overpay (in your eyes) for the asset you’re surrendering-thus making them easier to beat down the road.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
That's a fair point
And it certainly goes in a lot of cases.
But at the same time, different players have different values for different teams. Obviously, Philadelphia think they have a QB of the future with Kevin Kolb, making McNabb much less valuable to them. The Redskins needed a QB, and McNabb fits their team. The 2nd round pick the Eagles got would be worth more to them than McNabb, since they weren’t going to be playing McNabb much (if at all) anyway, but that same 2nd round pick is probably worth less to the Redskins than McNabb, since they’re not getting a comparable QB with that 2nd round pick. Because values are fluid, trades don’t need to be a win for one team and a loss for the other, they can be a win for both teams.
Excellent first post
It’s always beneficial to question the unquestioned. Often certain ideas are accepted as the status quo simply because of tradition, not because it makes the most sense. I’ve always accepted the fact that you don’t trade to division rivals, but, really, if you’re confident in your trade, you’re right, it shouldn’t make much of a difference.
Our Psych and Sociology professors loved the old experiment where you show up first to class, shut off the lights and close the door and then sit down besides it. You can go 20-30 minutes where everyone in the class will come up, see you sitting by the door, assume it’s locked and sit down next to you. Hilarious in a semi-sadistic kind of way.
re:
It’s always beneficial to question the unquestioned. Often certain ideas are accepted as the status quo simply because of tradition, not because it makes the most sense.
Amen.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 19, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree fully
The argument that a team shouldn’t trade within the division is flawed, as you explained in the post further in the comments. Teams should try to maximize the value they can get in a trade, especially because that possibly means hurting your rivals if you trade with them. Bravo to the Eaglles for having the guts to make the correct, but controversial, decision.
Also, if these are the types of posts we can expect to see from you Conjunction, I’ll surely be reading. Great job.
by Brendan Scolari on Apr 19, 2010 4:31 PM EDT reply actions

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