From fame to famine: Analyzing prominent free agents

by Conjunction on May 23, 2010 8:42 PM EDT in 2011 NFL Draft

This is the first in a series of posts focusing on current pros, as opposed to potential pros. Why? Because variety is the spice of life, and there's already a wealth of content on collegiate prospects right now. Don't shoot me.

Building a successful NFL team is a process that asks for a lot from the General Manager. He must keep the squad's long-term aspirations in mind while maintaining a certain standard for an often trigger-happy ownership group. He's also a prominent public relations presence and usually tasked with managing the team's contractual situation. So while the draft is without question the most important resource in constructing a dynasty, another aspect of team-building that must be tapped is free agency. Drew Brees and Darren Sharper played huge roles in getting the Saints to the promised land; Brett Favre currently holds the keys to collective happiness in the state of Minnesota. Bears fans moved from to despair to indignant shouting about their team's upward momentum when the team inked Julius Peppers.

Most big contracts, however, are sorely regretted down the road. Teams overpay for star players because the market doesn't contain enough of them and end up paying for it in the years to come. I've chosen to look at two prominent free agents-- and one prominent Restricted free agent teams are deliberating over signing to an offer sheet. Join me after the jump for fun, frivolity, and scouting lingo.

Case Study #1: The Infamous Popcorn Mogul known as Tee-Oh.

Terrell Owens has had a rough few years. He was released by his third team in order to (ostensibly) create reception opportunities for one of the NFL's worst receivers (Roy Williams). He then had to move to Buffalo, a move ill-fated from the start due to both its proximity to Canada and the fact that the team had a nearly nonexistent offensive line and no QB worth paying the minimum wage. TO had a few truly standout games, but for most matches was essentially nonexistent. I've gone back and looked at the game film; here's a breakdown of Owens' current skillset.

Quick synopsis: On my rating scale, a replacement level player would be rated at 4. An average starter s a 6, an all pro 8 overall.

Speed: TO still has significant deep speed. If given time, he can outrun most defensive backs. His straight-line movement is above-average. 7

Quickness: The problems begin here. Owens takes a while to build up speed, making it difficult for him to contribute on short routes like the slant. He's not much of an option on screen passes anymore. He also has trouble breaking press coverage. 5

Agility: Changes directions well and remains tough to tackle. Lighter on his feet than the big build and age would suggest. Jumps well and lands gracefully. 8

Hands: TO's long been maddening in this respect. He's an inconsistent pass-catcher but once in a while will make a really eye-popping grab- just to drive us fans crazy. Not much has changed. 6

Route-Running: Unorthodox. He runs routes differently than most QBs would expect, which can lead to interceptions. However, he will fight for positioning and the ball and thus salvages many of his own mistakes, as well as the QB's. Does not execute moves well. 6

Overall: Still a viable deep-threat, but his limited route tree and inconsistency exclude him from consideration as a top receiver. Best fit would be a tandem with a possession receiver (Maybe in Seattle with T.J. Houshamandzadeh). Does his persona keep him from contentment with that role? Needs a players' coach. Tough fit with most teams. 6

Report #2: Flozell Adams

Adams was one of the Cowboys' last remaining links to the teams of the 90s. The 35-year old has built up quite a reputation in this league-one that spans in both directions. Adams is a huge and talented athlete who can dominate opponents on occasion, but stats and the eyeball test seemed to reflect poorly on his performance last year. I've watched every game Flozell the Hotel participated in for the last 4 years and analyzed data from Profootballfocus.com, Footballoutsiders.com, K.C Joyner, and others. Here's my report on The Hotel.

Pass-Blocking: Adams' age is the prohibitive aspect here. In his prime Flozell's long arms and athleticism allowed him to capably contend with primo pass-rushers. He's a colossal man who's retained his strength over the years, but now has trouble keeping up with capable speed-rushers. He has some trouble backpedaling, and has slowly but perceptibly begun to cut corners to do his job capably. That's easy to note by looking at his frightening penalty totals. Adams handles bullrushers as well as anyone, and if the defensive player doesn't get past him in the first half-second, he'll likely be completely stymied for the extent of the play. 3.5

Run-Blocking: Adams remains a phenomenal run-blocker. It's evidenced by the Cowboys' fantastic success in running around the left end; Adams and Co. have paved the way for an explosive running game that regularly picks up long first downs. He regularly dominates defensive players and shows surprising ability to get to the second level. However, Adams' initial push is not great. He struggles in immediately manipulating the opposition, and thus is not great in short-yardage situations. 8.5

Overall: Adams is no longer a capable starting left tackle. That's not to say, though, that he can't be a good offensive lineman anymore. He'd probably be best-served following the Leonard Davis route and switching to guard, where his mauling ways and lack of mobility would be better utilized. I feel confident that he could be an above-average starting guard in almost any scheme, and should come fairly cheaply. He'll still accrue more than his share of false-start penalties, largely due to being deaf in one ear. But keep in mind that Cory Freaking Procter started at guard for a full year in this league, and It's clear that Adams will find a steady job somewhere in this league. 5 if kept at tackle. 7.5 as a guard.

#3: Oshiomogho Atogwe

OJ Atogwe has fascinated me for years. I knew him as one of that rare breed of safeties capable of causing fumbles and forcing interceptions, but didn't watch enough Rams games to gain a full perspective on his playstyle. The Rams have chosen to lowball Atogwe; rather than offering him a traditional compensation tender, they've slapped him with the 'Right of first refusal'. This gives them the right to match any deal offered to Atogwe-but withholds them from receiving any of his new team's draft picks if they choose not to match the offer sheet. This leaves them vulnerable to any team willing to offer Atogwe a big contract-and leaves them helpless if said team includes a poison pill in the offer sheet. What's the likelihood? Let's take a look.

Positives: I can't speak for the way he was utilized in past years, but in the games I saw this year he was used as the deep safety more often than not. This limited him from getting into much press or bump-and-run coverage; he was mostly tasked with handling the back part of the zone. When asked to run with receivers, he appears to match up fairly well. Accelerates fairly quickly and has good top-end speed. Good instincts and a nose for the ball. He was very rarely in frame for long completions against the Rams. This could mean he completely blew his assignment, but It's more likely he was covering another player. Does a good job of fighting receivers for position when the ball is in the air. A threat running the ball back once he gets his hands on it. Makes hard, resonant contact. Seems to do a good job of firing up teammates.

Negatives: Has some trouble with play recognition. Isn't great at fighting through or around blockers. Not a great blitzer. Gambles too much in pursuit of the big pick. Doesn't wrap up well-usually goes for the big hit. At times seemed uncertain about his coverage responsibilities when tasked with man responsibilities.

Overall, I came away from my study with a slightly lower opinion of OJ than I had coming in. The turnver numbers are partly a product of his playstyle; he's a gambler, and that can cost the team. Overall, he's a solid player, but not a pro bowler. It would take a big offer for the Rams to part with him (5 years, 30 Million?) and frankly, he probably isn't worth that kind of money. I see him staying in St. Louis and playing very well, as a talented 28 year old set to become a free agent would be expected to. He could also be traded- but I expect the return would underwhelm Rams fans (3rd rounder?).

Pass Defense: 7.5

Run Defense: 5.5

Overall: 6.5

Well, that's it for this post. I'm a little exhausted-but feel personally proud, though I've got a sinking feeling this indicates I've got too much time on my hands.

Please, dear readers, discuss, commentate, and deliberate. Thanks for reading!

Poll

Which of the scouting report formats did you prefer?

Tee-Oh's!

40 votes

The Hotel's!

14 votes

Atogwe's!

37 votes

Mix it up. It's cooler that way.

18 votes

109 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Dirtbag Adams.

Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.

by TheRealSlimShady on May 24, 2010 8:07 PM EDT reply actions

No doubt

His teammates loved him for it, though. He was willing to take a fine to protect his QB. Doesn’t make it at all right, but I can see where he rationalized it.

http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/

by Conjunction on May 24, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions