Seattle's Best Option for 1st Round Pick? None?
by tarryhawk on Jan 31, 2011 2:36 PM EST
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Pete Carroll after last year's draft said that he had outlined his draft as such so that if the player he was targeting (Earl Thomas) was not available with the 2nd 1st round pick, he would have traded down. I think that same mindset can be the case here. I've read a lot of 'Seattle's faithful' hoping to land Locker with their 1st round pick, but I'm not sold on him. His completion percentage is lower tier (55%), his TD/INT ratio is not impressive etc. I think the Seahawks target D or OL with the first pick and if these 4 players are gone, you could see Seattle trade out of the first round. Those 4 names: Nate Solder - OT - Colorado; Brandon Harris - CB - Miami; Mike Pouncey - OG - Florida; Ryan Kerrigan - DE - Purdue. Here is why these players make sense.
Mike Pouncey - Best interior lineman in the draft, we need solid LG to play with Okung and our woeful OL play last year.
Nate Solder - OT - Colorado; I like him on the right side, Max Unger is due back fully healthy next year and will help on the right side, so having a solid RT will open holes for Lynch which were not there last year... also if Okung goes down we have a natural OT to take over on the left side.
Ryan Kerrigan - DE - Purdue; We NEED to get to the QB no question about it... I am a strong believer that our D was poor due to lack of QB pressure. I like our DL Clemens, Cole, Bryant and Mebane and with Brock filling in nicely when asked, but our Leo was inconsistant all year. Kerrigan gives us the option of Clemens slipping to the Leo spot and Bryant can move back inside to DT to add depth. Kerrigan has to speed to beat OT outside forcing him in to meet Mebane up nice and close.
Brandon Harris - CB - Miami: Harris is a playmaking corner that would play opposite Trufant. He's got great speed to come off of the corner blitz and has good recovery speed. He's a bit shorter at 5'11" than I personally like in a corner, but at a #2 corner he's perfect.
I have an issue drafting a QB first round in Seattle's case when Locker is the target. There are too many question marks for him, and drafting a QB when so many pressing needs are there makes no sense to me. If these 4 players above are gone, I think the best option is to trade out of the 1st round and hope for a 2nd and 3rd round pick in return. That does a few things for us: First, it gets us back into the 3rd round, and it would still give us a fairly high pick in the 2nd round to get a very solid OL. I like Rodney Hudson - OG - Florida State who is not likely there with our 2nd round pick. I do believe most QBs in this years draft are risky, so I'd much rather take that risk on Christian Ponder or Pat Devlin late 2nd or in the early 3rd round (based on us getting 2nd and 3rd round pick for our 1st rounder). Both have the 'potential' lable as does Locker... but check the stats, watch the film, there not enough separating Locker from either of these 2 QBs at much less the price.
If all 4 players are still on the board at #25 my pick would be: Ryan Kerrigan DE - Purdue.
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The basic non-QB positions that figure to be available are about right.
I would add DT. I like the guys you mentioned, although I haven’t looked at the corners yet. There are a lot of pass rushers so 2 or even 3 could be available. A couple available in the 2nd round, as well. Same goes for OT.
It’s probably more likely than not that Kerrigan and Solder will be gone, though. Justin Houston and Gabe Carimi might be the guys we have to consider instead.
Houston
I prefer Kerrigan over Houston and dont think we should ‘settle’ for Houston. Don’t get me wrong I like him and he’s a solid player, but I wouldn’t draft a Leo in the first round. we need the pure pass rushing DE and slide Clemens to your Leo. If you want to draft a Leo wait until late 2nd or 3rd round (would have to trade into 3rd) and draft a Dontay Mach, who’ll likely be a late 2nd to mid 3rd round pick. Kerrigan gives us the option of sliding Clemens to Leo, move Red Bryant to rotate in the DT positions along with Mebane and Cole and add depth. I don’t think Houston gives you that option.
I don't understand what you're saying.
Chris Clemons IS our Leo, and he excelled at it this season after posting a career and team high 11 sacks, while constantly being a disruptive force off the edge.
Red Bryant was a DT until the coaches decided to move him to DE in training camp.
by Fearless Frog on Jan 31, 2011 7:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And there's no reason at all to move Bryant inside. At all.
The guy played great as a 5-tech and the team suffered when he went down due to injury, but he wasn’t doing anything as a pure DT.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 31, 2011 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
Bryant is no pass rusher
I like Bryant, but we need to get to the QB. Kerrigan can do that better than Bryant can. Bryant is a good run stopper. If we give QBs the time to throw, we’ll get torn apart. Clemens and Kerrigan gives us a much better pass rush. Rotate Bryant in and out if you must… put him at 5 on rushing plays and like it or not he would add depth to DT… he’s no all-pro at DT but aside from Cole and Mebane… who do you have? Depth, Depth and more Depth.
Kerrigan
So you want to draft him to be a situational pass rusher at the 5 Tech. I dont disagree that we need a situational pass rusher to come in but that was really Raheem Brocks roll and I doubt a team with so many holes drafts a situational player with their first pick.
Bryant has shown that he is too tall to play inside to be effective but when he is outside he can use his leverage better and thats what makes him good, he needs space.
bp42810 The best 1st round DEs that could fit our 5 tech DE would be Jordan, Claiborne, or Watt
I think this is spot on.
This is all true,
but a big part of why he wasn’t working at DT is his height. Interior linemen were able to get underneath him and win leverage easily. At 5-tech the potential to rush the edge gives him the space to use his length to an advantage and mitigates it from being a leverage liability.
I haven’t looked closely yet at Houston, but I have at Kerrigan. I’m with ya; I’d prefer Kerrigan, too, I just think he’ll be picked before 25.
Now, of all the DEs, the guys I have most concern about are Clayborn, Kerrigan and Heyward. I like what I see out of Kerrigan and Clayborn, but I worry their skills won’t translate against substantially increased competition as well as the other guys in the late 1st.
Kerrigan’s got great hustle, good speed, decent talent and technique. He made a lot of plays and created a lot of disruption but the bulk of that disruption seemed to come on plays where he was easily able to shed a block.
I mean, he executed good technique and body control to shed blocks, a demonstrated skill, but only poor technique, strength, balance, and/or talent on the part of the OTs would figure to provide such frequent payoff for that kind of block shedding. He was stonewalled on the offensive left in the senior bowl, and then looked good on the right. I would worry Kerrigan would be a disappointment despite tremendous effort, ala Aaron Maybin.
Solder
Im not Sold on him. :) He gets too high as evidence in the Senior bowl when Acho faked outside got him on his heels and then stiffed armed him to the inside. His height and balance is a negative to me. I feel like Carimi fits the power run sceme better. Also I like Houston as a Leo better than Kerrigan who really wouldnt have a position to play on our D, I would rather have Phil Taylor at the 5 tech or a back up or start over Cole. I would rather grab Taylor with our second round pick but he might not be there. You could also add Liuget for a DT but he may be more of a 3 Tech depth(hopefully mebane resigns) but maybe he could sub in for Bryant but I would rather have Taylor who looks to be his mold.
Pouncy to me is the obvious choice, I hear he is every bit as good as his brother at playing guard and Maurkice was a pro bowl selection in his first year.
If you go Cornerback with the first pick, I think Jimmy smith might be worth a look as well.
re: Solder
If Solder is your starting LT right away, you have issues, but for RT I think he’s a good fit. I love his size and agility. I have Carimi off the board before 25. I think Tom Cable can coach this kid. Houston is a great Leo option I agree, but my thought with Kerrigan is to be able to move Clemens to your Leo. Kerrigan is quicker than Houston and Clemens and is likely to get more pressure on the QB.
I like Pouncey a lot as well… I would be extremely pleased with him… I think he will move up the boards and be taken before 20. I like Jimmy Smith’s size at CB and he’ll likely be there at 25, I like Harris’s speed and playmaking ability a bit better.
The Seahawks are running a ZBS, so the OL need to be athletic
Carimi plays like he’s got lead feet.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Jan 31, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
Ill take Lead feet over Solder.
over a player who is agile that doesnt have the strength to block anyone, I just cant get the image of Acho shoving him aside. Imagine what legitimate NFL ready players would do to him.
I would rather get Pouncey in the first though, maybe we were not meant to get a tackle from this class.
Not Saying Acho is worthless
But I guarantee we have DE’s we play against who are better than him and not that great.
Pouncey
I think all of us here would prefer Pouncey over Solder, I do like Solder over Carimi. Blocking technique can be taught with Solder. I’m not taking anything away from your selection of Carimi over Ponder, but Ponder is a better fit for the ZBS than Carimi.
Ponder?
I dont want to draft Ponder to play line although Florida State Quarterbacks are multi-talented, I would be afraid he would lose some of his agility putting on the 65+ lbs to play guard or tackle. I think you meant Pouncy.
I think if you can get him
get Locker, look for the future, if he can sit a year or two, his accuracy will only get better…he has the tools, but has a few question marks, those question marks are big ones unfortuantely, he’s a good developing guy, and if you draft him in the 1st, I think there is a 85% chance he’ll be good in a few years….
re Locker
Locker is going to be the QB that drops in this draft. He’ll be the Jimmy Claussen of this years bunch. He ‘could’ slip to the 2nd round because of those question marks. I saw your Mock draft and you giving Seattle Pat Devlin in the 2nd round… I’d rather that risk for the Seahawks than Locker in the 1st. I think Seattle could trade away the 1st round pick if the 4 I listed are gone and still have a shot at Locker in the early 2nd round. A lot will depend on his pro day and the combine on how far he will drop, but I only see 2 QBs being taken this year in the 1st round: Gabbert and Newton and it wouldn’t shock me to see no QB taken in the top 10. I think the Titans could take a QB at 8 but could also see them going another direction now that Fisher is not there. Minnesota could be where Gabbert lands at 12… and Newton shortly after at 16 to the Jags…. Anyway the QB situation in the draft is another posting for another time :)
I like that for the Hawks
if they can trade back, and get a pick in the early second, they can still get Locker, and an extra 4th or 5th rounder….
by Rhett Chrystal on Jan 31, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see why the Seahawks would pass on Locker.
Is he flawed? Of course. But he has the potential to be a great starting QB, and one does not typically find such a prospect late in the first round. And if he doesn’t work out, all you did was fail with a late first round pick.
I think he’s an acceptable risk.
by Fearless Frog on Jan 31, 2011 7:14 PM EST via mobile reply actions
acceptable risk?
I don’t see Locker as an acceptable risk for late 1st round. There are other ‘acceptable risk’ position players I would rather that fill a need now. The 4 players I mentioned and could name off a few that I’d rather take the risk on in the 1st round other than Locker: Aaron Williams, Jimmy Smith, and Justin Houston to name 3. All are likely to be there at 25. You have the same risk with Ponder and Devlin who are projected late 2nd or 3rd round picks. I urge you to watch some film on these 3 QBs: I think Ponder and Devlin will surprise you. All of this said, if Seattle picks Locker… I’ll be cheering for him.
I think it's an acceptable risk
for a QB with a very high upside. And it’s not like we’re gambling with a top 5 pick, it’s 25th, which is a small price to pay when gambling for a potential franchise QB. That being said, I think the ideal situation would be to trade back into the early 2nd. The only player’s out of your 4 listed that I would take with the 25 are Pouncey and Harris. Kerrigan doesn’t seem like he’d fit.
Definitely an acceptable risk.
I would say, though: circumstances that lead him to still actually be available at 25 would warrant some reconsideration about that risk. The rest of the league also knows about that potential.
But mostly I expect we won’t pass on him because he won’t be available.
Elite talents fall all the time.
But I agree that he won’t be available. The fact that he’s the lone senior of the “Big Four” is probably carrying a lot of weight amongst the front offices.
by Fearless Frog on Feb 4, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely
We’re missing a 3rd rounder and we have a lot of holes to fill
proposed trade
It will depend on who’s on the board at the time. If any of the 4 are listed are available then I wouldn’t. If those 4 are gone, absolutely.
Heck yes I would
I would also hope that Schneider would as well, I doubt we rate any player @ 25 that much more valuable than a player @ 33 but who knows.
What player would the Patriots look at drafting if they made that move do you think?
Qunn
We all know how well that turned out for Cleveland. What scares me is that Quinn’s lowest completion % in College is higher than Lockers average completion %.
Obviously Quinn isn't the best case scenario, or even a good case.
But as an answer to why the Pats would move back up, he was the easiest example.
I'm thinking along the same thing as the 'hawks...
…the Patriots might want Kerrigan, Wilkerson, Pouncey, Sherrod, etc- but all will be gone before 33. The Patriots have the depth and role players, but they need the game changers.
I think we would.
We have too many holes, and regardless of whether someone like Locker was there (and for the record, I would like Jake to the Seahawks) we need to restock.
I don't see how you can alreay be fixated
on 4 players. You probably have the right positions, but I think the grades on many of the DEs, OTs, CBs, and OGs are fairly close. You surely need to be more open at this point. Wait until after the Combine to get a mancrush.
Wisniewski and Pouncey are closely graded.
It is difficult to distinguish who would best fit between Solder, Smith, Carimi, Sherrod, etc.
Harris seems to be the consensus top CB available in the late 1st, but Smith and Williams are highly regarded as well.
I think Kerrigan would be a poor fit for the Hawks at this point. His size means he would have to play Leo. We already have Clemons and Davis. I think it has been shown that filling the Leo position is very easy and doesn’t require a high talent player. The DE position on the opposite side, though, has been difficult to fill. We had Bryant there until his injury. Then, when he went down, we turned to a combo of Kentwan Balmer and Raheem Brock. Balmer was not good at rushing or run stopping and Brock was one dimensional in that he couldn’t stop the run. The best 1st round DEs that could fit our 5 tech DE would be Jordan, Claiborne, or Watt. They may even look at a typical DT sized player (like Bryant) to play the role.
by bp42810 on Feb 1, 2011 11:50 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
5 Tech
I think all the players Jordan, Claiborne and Watt could definitly be more in the mold. I kinda hope we try Bryant 2.0 and get Phil Taylor, I kinda do have a mancrush on him.
I too am doubtful we are going to go Leo but to me with the zone blitzes Clemons got so deep on some of his drops he should have had some interceptions and more pass defenses, the ideal player I have seen is Justin Houston.
I forgot about Wisniewski and havnt seen him play that much but your right about him being pretty comparable to Pouncey in the Scouts eyes.
Question is would any of those players be must pick players in the eyes of the FO or would a trade trump that with the likelihood its for an early 2 rounder and 3rd and one of those players up top in all likelihood would still be available. I hope thats the case.
It's true that Leo figures to be easier to fill.
On the other hand if you have an opportunity to get a gamechanger there, the impact of the position is greater. Might not be difficult to find an adequate Leo later on, but a gamechanging talent is as rare or rarer than what we want out of 5-tech.
I guess I don't see what others are seeing in Pouncey.
There are plenty of second round and third round Guards that are equal to Pouncey in my mind: Moffitt, Watkins, Ijalana, Hudson will all be available later and should work in Seattle’s ZBS. Some of those guys are a better fit than others. If you need a Center, Wisniewski is a possibility too.
Is a wide receiver one of your needs at all? What about Hankerson if he is available?
As far as Tackles go, what about Derek Sherrod? Seems to have the athletic ability to play Left Tackle, along with the size to be a Right Tackle. Could be a fit if Solder is not there.
Ponder and Hankerson
as later round picks. Wouldnt mind seeing a re-enactment of the Senior Bowl on the field. I have no idea where Hankerson is rated.
I don't expect to see
the Hawks go after a WR in any of the first 4 rounds. They are committed to Williams, Obomanu, Tate, and Butler. They will probably try to retain Stokely and/or Martin. I could see them go after a late round WR for depth, preferably one who could compete with Forsett/Tate for Punt Return duties or be insurance in case we can’t resign Leon Washington for Kick Return duties. I could see someone like Dwayne Harris, Ronald Johnson, or Derell Johnson-Koulianos taken in rounds 5 to 7.
I'm not jazzed about Pouncey, either.
Watkins is probably early 2nd at the latest, though. But yeah I’m intrigued by those guys, Moffitt in particular.
Seattle is rumored to be looking at Dwayne Harris, and knowing what they like they’re certainly looking at Hankerson and Vincent Brown. Hankerson’s hands worry me a little but I haven’t looked closely yet.
Moffitt
He is a powerful man. Watkins did not look particularly good to me during the Senior Bowl game. Saw some holding and losing his blocks.
I wonder when Moffit is going to be drafted most people have him as 3rd to 4th round I think.
I could see him sneaking up into the last quarter of the second round.
He apparently was one of the only O Lineman who could fight Cameron Jordan to a standstill in the Senior Bowl practices.
I love Moffitt.
Perhaps even more than Carimi, although I think Carimi will be a badass RT too.
by Fearless Frog on Feb 4, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
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