1st Round WR's 2000-2004: A Real Horror Story

by pick256 on Oct 17, 2011 10:09 PM EDT in 2012 NFL Draft

In just a couple of weeks, the streets will be filled with witches, goblins, ghosts and other nightmarish creatures as they roam door to door demanding candy. But if you really want to scare your friends this Halloween, you should dress up as one myriad 1st round WR busts who entered the NFL between 2000 and 2004. Just hearing the name "Rashaun Woods" or "R.Jay Soward" is enough to send a chill up any general manager's spine. Drafting WR's is exceptionally difficult, but the early part of last decade produced some real nightmares.

When you draft any player in the 1st round, you are hoping for a cornerstone of your franchise. A player who will not only be a game-changing talent, but someone who can bring longevity and long-term stability to his position. Unfortunately, it rarely works that way. Consider these haunting facts:

Between 2000-2004 there were 24 WR's drafted in the 1st round. Of those, only Reggie Wayne (2001, Colts), Andre Johnson (2003, Texans) and Larry Fitzgerald (2004, Cardinals) are still with their original team. Less than half (11) are still active in the league.

The 24 WR's have cumulatively averaged just 3 catches and 42 yards per game over the course of their careers. Only 4 of the receivers (Fitzgerald, A.Johnson, Wayne and Santana Moss) have averaged 4+ catches per game. Only 7 have averaged 50+ receiving yards per game:

But that's not all. Of the 24 1st round WR's in this time period, only a quarter of them (Wayne, Fitzgerald, A.Johnson, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton and Michael Jenkins) played more than 5 seasons with their drafting team. So much for "long term stability". This is what it looks like in graphical form:

Three 1st rounders (Rashaun Woods, R.Jay Soward and Sylvester Morris) only played one season in the league. The majority of the others played out their rookie contracts (typically 4 or 5 year deals) and bolted for greener pastures - or the unemployment line.

The 2000-2004 1st round WR's have compiled 154 seasons played and 90 of those (58%) have resulted in fewer than 50 receptions:

Not scared yet? Take out the three superstars (Wayne, Fitzgerald, A.Johnson) and the other 21 WR's have averaged a paltry 13% of their team's catches throughout their career. Hardly what one hopes for when selecting a receiver early in the draft.

So when the spring rolls around and your favorite team is considering a WR on Day 1 of the draft, don't get your hopes up too high. As exciting as it is to imagine Alshon Jeffery, Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd as the next Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson, the WR class of 2012 is likely to produce more tricks than treats.

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Comments

I'd say WRs today are much more ready for the NFL then years past

this year’s class may be the best in years, or at least comparable to the Crabtree, DHB, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt class in 2009.

Jeffrey, Floyd and Blackmon are all ready, and then you have Broyles who might be the most complete as well as Jeff Fuller.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 17, 2011 10:25 PM EDT reply actions

Wallace?

by Riddlah. on Oct 18, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

what round did he get drafted in bub?

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 19, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

3rd

but he’s still in the 2009 class. In fact, he’s the best of the 2009 class.

by Riddlah. on Oct 19, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

the title says "1st round WRS" so there's that

and no, he’s not the best WR in the 2009 class.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 19, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Who is better?

If you say Nicks, I’m going to laugh at you.

by Riddlah. on Oct 19, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

laugh all you want, he is.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 20, 2011 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Mike Wallace 2010 stats:
-60 receptions
-1257 yards
-21.0 average
-10 touchdowns

Hakeem Nicks 2010 stats:
-79 receptions
-1052 yards
-13.3 average
-11 touchdowns

Mike Wallace 2011 stats:
-33 receptions
-612 yards
-18.5 average
-4 touchdowns

Hakeem Nicks 2011 stats:
-32 receptions
-508 yards
-15.9 average
-3 touchdowns

Sorry, but Mike Wallace is easily the better player.

by Riddlah. on Oct 20, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Hakeem played in 3 less games in 2010

and was injured in a few of those he played (with the same injury, compartment syndrome, that caused him to miss the 3 games). Sorry bub, there’s more stats in there for Hak to get.

Wallace is good, but he’s Desean Jackson with a good QB. And Hakeem is a better receiver then Desean.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 20, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Not so sure

Consider the top WR’s from 2007: Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez.

2009 is a rare exception insofar as the early returns have been good.

As ready as Jeffrey, Floyd, Blackmon et al may be, people (experts, pundits, scouts and personnel men) proclaimed many of the busts as “pro ready” or “rare talent”. That’s why they end up getting taken so early. Some guys can’t adjust to NFL talent or schemes, others fall into bad habits (drugs, bad work ethic, legal problems, etc). It would be very surprising if all of the top 2012 WR’s work out.

by pick256 on Oct 17, 2011 10:35 PM EDT reply actions

2007 was an overdraft year

Most of these guys were not rated as highly as they went. Only the 1st three should have been first rounders, and maybe not Bowe. Craig Davis was one of the most laughed at picks of the decade.

When I look at the list at the top, I see guys that maybe had one element (size, speed, or production), but lacked others, and the drafting team decided to overlook their weaknesses. A lot of these picks were criticized when they were made. Charles Rogers is the only guy up there that had more talent than his stats indicate.

But some of these guys fell victim to the franchises they landed with. If your offense is a mess and the QB cannot throw, you are not going top produce.

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue."

by ct17 on Oct 18, 2011 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions

this.

Obviously certain WRs are just gonna be beasts no matter what. Megatron was one. I’d even say Kenny Britt was another, given Tennessee’s QBs aren’t exactly world beaters since he’s been there.

But if Ted Ginn or DHB go to a team like the Colts, Saints, Packers, Giants, etc…I bet they don’t turn out to be busts. Some just are busts, like Craig Davis. Some are nippleheads, like Charles Rogers.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 18, 2011 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Rationalize your expectations

Not every player taken in the first round is going to be a Hall of Famer. Guys like Wayne, Johnson and Fitz are special because they are rare. Of the list above, only half or less would I honestly consider a bust. For example, Javon Walker went to a Pro Bowl before eventually having his career derailed by injuries. Michael Clayton was electric in his rookie season with the Bucs before falling into obscurity. Lee Evans, Stallworth, Jenkins, Johnson, even Roy Williams all have been serviceable or better throughout their careers.

12 busts, 3 Hall of Famers, 3 other Pro Bowlers, and half a dozen average contributors. That’s about par of the course in my book as far as 1st round picks go. I think this year’s class is better than most. I would have no hesitation about taking any of the top 3 WRs in this years draft and I suspect there will be a couple others who shine as well.

by invisibulman on Oct 18, 2011 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs