The NFL Draft Bust-O-Meter Returns
by Jon Dove on Feb 28, 2011 7:17 PM EST
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If anyone can remember back to my last stint with Mocking the Draft I ran a series of articles called the Bust-O-Meter. The series looked at the players with a high likely hood of not developing and being labled a bust. The Bust-O-Meter will return later this week and I would like some suggestions in the comment sections. This is a great time to start these articles because a ton of hype is generated by the Scouting Combine.
The articles take a lot of things into consideration but I generally look at the player position, rumored draft position, and the potential for bust. Generally, busts are labeled after being selected high in the draft and never live up to their potential. If you select a quarterback in the top 5 of the draft you expect him to be among the best in the league so if they are just average they could be considered a bust. Some of the bigger busts of the last few years are names like JaMarcus Russell, Vernon Gholston, and Aaron Maybin. While players like Gholston and Maybin still have some hope they have failed to make the impact expected. Busts can set a NFL team back several years in the rebuilding process and again show us why it is so important to have good people in the front office.
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Mallett, Locker, Kaepernick, Ponder
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Feb 28, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Mallet-2nd Round
Locker- 2nd Round
Kaep-3rd round
Ponder- 2-3 round
Not a Bust really
Kenny Powers is back!
I guess it depends on your idea of a bust and where QBs will land
I think we’ll see at least 3 QBs go in the 1st round. I also think that a 2nd or 3rd round pick that isn’t a starter for a couple of years is a bust.
by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Feb 28, 2011 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
A 2nd rounder can definitely be a bust, even 3rd to an extent
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Mar 1, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed on Auburn guys
Just don’t think they’re well-coached, especially in pro-style systems. Fairley and Newton will be 1 year wonders and fail in the NFL IMO…
DEs and QBs
DEs, all of them. I wouldn’t risk it on any of them unless they run a 4.4 and weigh 260, just not worth it this early in the draft. Give me those 4th rounders, 2nd at very earliest. Look at the hit rate of DEs over last 10 years, it is seriously around 50%, and that is just for players who stayed with their teams, not pro bowls.
Just to make sure I understand you correctly,
you wouldn’t pick a DE in the 1st round unless they weigh 260 and run a 4.4 forty?
I could make an argument for practically every position that a success rate runs close to 50%. DL prospects rarely run 4.4. And unless they’re 3-4 pass rushing OLBs or play the old George Siefert Elephant role, 260 is too small to play DL in the NFL. Flat out too small.
by jacobstevens on Feb 28, 2011 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Ryan Kerrigan
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." Martin Luther King Jr.
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
as long as he doesn't go to a 3-4 team
because some one out there will think he can drop into coverage.
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." Martin Luther King Jr.
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Mar 2, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think
hes over hyped, and if he goes right into the starting lineup will most defined bust, but if he can sit on a warm bench, he may blossom.
"Don't go away Mad, Just go away."
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000348972710
by rhettchrystal on Feb 28, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely
I really don’t like how he was nowhere to be found on scouts radar during the season, and then after the season, POOF! he’s a top QB. Doesn’t add up to me. Looked at his film, and I just don’t see it…
I would like to say
that Vernon Gholston may not be a bust, if he can play his natural 43 Defensive End spot, he’s out of position in the 3-4.
"Don't go away Mad, Just go away."
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000348972710
for the Jets
but if they do cut him, he can be picked up by a 43 team, and blow up, making him not a bust.
"Don't go away Mad, Just go away."
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000348972710
by rhettchrystal on Feb 28, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
So if Derrick Harvey
tears it up for another team he’s not a bust? Wrong!
The team should wear the BUST label as much or more than the player.
A lot of the busts were because teams reached or failed to check the guy out fully. My own Lions, Matt Millen that is, ignored failed drug tests of Charles Rogers and went ahead and picked him at # 2.
There were all sorts of flags about Jemarcus before the draft that the Raiders ignored. Gholsten was picked by the Jets at # 6 to play a new position in a different scheme. Foolish. As someone said, he might have a chance to succeed at his proper position.
"A lot of people have stayed 3 minutes in the ring with the bear, and they didn't do it by going at the bear. They did it by getting on their bike and running around. - Jim Schwartz 2011
by NorthLeft12 on Feb 28, 2011 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
This I totally agree with
Rec NorthLeft
"We feel very strongly that our best policy is to draft the best player. This isn't fantasy football." - Ted Thompson
I like this
Organizations will get the pass, the player gets killed. In some cases the player should be crucified. I just wish there was more balance when failures occurred too.
Tyron Smith
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
by Rorschach44 on Feb 28, 2011 7:41 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Bowers/Newton/Fairley/Clayborn/Heyward
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on Feb 28, 2011 7:48 PM EST reply actions
Cam Newton, Nick Fairly, and Da'Quan Bowers
Notice something in common?
Nick Fairley, Cam Newton, Julio Jones
Fairley because he’s only had one productive year to date, and he had some pretty talented players around that allowed him to excel this year.
Cam Newton because he will be drafted higher than he should be drafted, therefore he’ll never be able to live up to expectations.
Julio Jones. HIs stock will likely sky rocket after his amazing Combine workout. However, he did drop quite a few balls at Alabama, and he stuggled mightily against press coverage.
I’m not saying these guys WILL bust, they are just my candidates to bust. Did you hear that? That was the sound of a hair spliting.
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
I don't think ones stock can sky rocket when already projected top 15 by a lot of people.
Site Moderator on MockingtheDraft, AnaheimCalling, and Coltzilla.
@Travis_Tango.
Lead organizer of the annual 7-round live mock draft at MtD
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 28, 2011 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
the talk around the combine was that his workouts solidified him as a 1st rounder
Meaning that some had him as a low 1st to early 2nd rounder. With that being said, if he were to jump AJ Green and become the first WR drafted, I would say that qualifies as having his stock sky rocket.
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
Agree on Fairley and Newton
They’re not well coached. However Julio is going to be beast at the next level…
Youre probably right
But those lofty expectations are why I decided to throw his name in
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
Paea
2011 Dream Draft
1) Mark Ingram, RB
2) Mason Foster, OLB
3) Jake Kirkpatrick, C
4) Jonny Patrick, CB
5) >:(
6) Henry Hynoski, FB
7) Mario Harvey, ILB
by BigBlueIntervention on Feb 28, 2011 8:10 PM EST reply actions
Julio Jones!
No reason other than to be contrary.
by IgnatiusJReilly on Feb 28, 2011 8:23 PM EST reply actions
Gabbert, Ayers, Aldon Smith
If you reply to a comment/post/fanshot of mine, I will more likely then not respond to it, unless you come off like a d-bag.
Jets cut Gholston today
In Pat we Trust
"Sorry if everyone thought we were going to go 82-0" - Dwyane Wade
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." - Yogi Berra
The nice thing about "busts"
moving forward is teams likely won’t be breaking the bank for them.
Formerly UNFNole
Patrick Peterson
just because
"Don't turn the channel, ... no matter what the score is." -David Eckstein
by princeton11loveshalos on Feb 28, 2011 9:32 PM EST reply actions
I was hoping for the Bust-O-Meters return
I gave Jimmy Clausen a 7.5 on the bust-o-meter scale last season and I was spot on about Jimmy Clausen. I can recall it like it was yesterday (lol) and recieved heavy criticism from more than a few. One thing it tells you…….who can project well and who is doing the work (looking at prospects objectively).
Dez Bryant was a guy I thought would transition well and he did not disappoint me. Ditto, Mike Williams the Syracuse WR.
?????
Can we wait 3 or 4 years and then label them as busts? Or is 13 games all we need?
I'm just a dude who likes talking to other dudes about other dudes.........in a straight way.
by tj.hendricks on Mar 1, 2011 2:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ask the Carolina Panthers that question
Either a guy can play or he can’t. I questioned Clausen’s leadership last year and his talent. Current Carolina Panthers players have questions (Steve Smith and FO). Enough said?
no
I'm just a dude who likes talking to other dudes about other dudes.........in a straight way.
by tj.hendricks on Mar 2, 2011 1:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Lol
Don’t be surprised if the Panthers take a QB high in this draft.
Jimmy Smith
He’s afraid to hit. Also Kerrigan, Fairley, and JJ Watt
Easiest way to avoid a parking ticket: Leave your windshield wipers on high.
Torrey Smith
Mark Ingram, Robert Quinn,Jonathon Baldwin, Prince Akawumura
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
there WILL be busts. the question is, which ones?
it is hard to say which player isn’t going to gel with which team, because sometimes A) the team drafts a player not suited to their schemes, thinking they can re-coach him, B) the player had unseen issues that become a distractions, C) the injury bug.
A player can be incredibly talented, but if he gets drafted to a team that mis-uses him (say, the Lions during the Millen debacle), that talent’s gonna go to waste.
The Bust-O-Meter is as big a gamble to predict as Mel Kiper’s “I Would Marry These Guys If I Could” draft board.
The 2010 Bucs: Considering their two-minute offense works wonders... Why can't EVERY offensive drive be run like that during the other 58 minutes of the damn game?!
ok here's my list
fairley,bowers,peterson,aj green,julio jones,mark ingram,prince,quinn,jj watt,jimmy smith,mike pouncy,ayers,solder,gabbert newton……ok for real……… fairley,cam newton,solder,mallet I think julio jones will translate into a pretty decent nfl WR ayers is scary because he’s on the edge and its really scary since he might get drafted by my lions.
I'm a little late
My include Cam Newton, Jon Baldwin, and Rodney Hudson. Earlier in the year I had Julio Jones but he is growing on me.
Proud fan of Pittsburgh's professional sports teams and the Pirates too.
by Black&GoldTrain on Mar 2, 2011 10:09 PM EST reply actions
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