Comp Pick Predictions

by ct17 on Mar 11, 2011 2:21 PM EST

It looks like AdamJT13 has abandoned his excellent work in predicting compensatory picks. Since I want to start working on my final 7-round mock now, I decided to look at slotting comp picks myself. I claim no credit for this work, as I did nothing original. I shamelessly used AdamJT13's publicly posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs are not counted.

2. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

3. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the total value of the contract signed.

I will first list the comp picks awarded and then provide the related team free agent activity at the end. I am not explaining teams that did not get comp picks to save time. But if you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, let me know. I also need your help. If you know that one the players listed in the explanation section was cut by his previous team or was an untendered restricted free agent, please let me know. They should not be in the comp pick analysis. I relied on what information I could find.

I awarded 19 normal comp picks. I am fairly confident in this number, but less confident in their round placement, because I am not sure how much the amount of playing time alters the placement by salary. AJ Feeley did not take a snap, maybe that knocks him back a round. Kampman and Vanden Bosch had the same contracts, but Kampman missed significant time. The order of picks inside the late rounds is a mystery to me; AdamJT13 seemed to indicate playing time was more of a factor. I awarded 2 net value picks (value difference between player lost and signed). Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 11 additional picks at the end, which follow the first 11 picks of the first round.

Compensatory Picks Awarded (round - team - player)

3 - Carolina - Julius Peppers

3 - Tennessee - Kyle Vanden Bosch (possibly a 4)

4 - Green Bay - Aaron Kampman (possibly a 3)

4 - Seattle - Nate Burleson (possibly a 5)

5 - Baltimore - Justin Bannan

5 - New York Giants - Fred Robbins (possibly a 6)

6 - Miami - Nate Jones

6 - Minnesota - Chester Taylor

6 - San Diego - Brandon Manumaleuna

6 - Minnesota - Artis Hicks

6 - New York Giants - David Carr

6 - Carolina - AJ Feeley

6 - Kansas City - Wade Smith

7 - Philadelphia - Sean Jones

7 - Philadelphia - Jason Babin

7 - San Diego - Kassim Osgood

7 - New York Jets - Jay Feely

7 - Tampa Bay - Jimmy Wilkerson

7 - San Francisco - Arnaz Battle

7 - New Orleans

7 - New England

7 - Carolina

7 - Denver

7 - Buffalo

7 - Cincinnati

7 - Arizona

7 - Cleveland

7 - San Francisco

7 - Tennessee

7 - Dallas

7 - Washington

7 - Houston

Explanations (with contract signed):

Baltimore - Lost: Bannan (5 yr $22 million), Edwards (4 yr $18 million)

Signed: Redding (2 yr $6 million)

Carolina - Lost: Peppers (6 yr $91.5 million), Feeley (2 yr $6 million)

Green Bay - Lost: Kampman (4 yr $26 million)

Kansas City - Lost: Smith (4 yr $12 million)

Miami - Lost: Taylor (2 yr $13 million), Jones (4 yr 13.6 million)

Signed: Dansby (5 yr $43 million)

Minnesota - Lost: Taylor (4 yr 12.5 million), Hicks (3 yr $9 million)

New York Giants - Lost: Robbins (3 yr $12 million), Carr (2 yr $6.2 million)

New York Jets - Lost: Alan Faneca (2 yr $5 million), Feely (2 yr $3.5 million)

Signed: Taylor (2 yr $13 million)

Philadelphia - Lost: Babin (1 yr $1 million), Jones (2 yr $3 million)

San Diego - Lost: Manumaleuna (5 yr $15 million), Osgood (3 yr $6.675 million)

San Francisco - Lost: Pashos (3 yr $10.5 million), Battle (3 yr $3.9 million)

Signed: Carr (2 yr $6.2 million)

Seattle - Lost: Burleson (5 yr $25 million), Redding (2 yr $6 million)

Signed: Hamilton (1 yr $2 million)

Tampa Bay - Lost: Allen (3 yr $6.25 million), Wilkerson (1 yr $1 million)

Signed: Jones (2 yr $3 million)

Tennessee - Lost: Vanden Bosch (4 yr $26 million), Crumpler (2 yr $2.4 million)

Signed: Babin (1 yr $1 million)

Net Value Explanations:

New Orleans - Lost: Fujita (3 yr $14 million)

Signed: Wilkerson (1 yr $1 million)

New England - Lost: Watson (3 yr $12 million)

Signed: Crumpler (2 yr $2.4 million)

Other Interesting Tidbits:

New York Giants and Seattle saved their comp picks by signing players (Bulluck and Pitts) after the end of the free agency period on July 23.

Houston lost their 3 (from Dunta Robinson) by signing Wade Smith and Neil Rackers.

Arizona led the league in qualifying free agency transactions and prediction difficulty. They lost their 3 (from Karlos Dansby) by signing more players than they lost.

If you think I made any errors or omissions, please let me know.

If it's deemed spam, it gets deleted.

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Comments

The Chiefs signed

Thomas Jones, Casey Weigman, and Ryan Lija. I was told that would cancel out the loss of Wade Smith, since it is players signed vs players lost

"We feel very strongly that our best policy is to draft the best player. This isn't fantasy football." - Ted Thompson

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 11, 2011 3:56 PM EST reply actions

All those guys were cut by their former teams

Players cut do not count. The theory is it’s your fault for losing them. Comp picks are sort of a small market-big market evening out. You compensate the small market teams for not being able to afford to resign their guys.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 11, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

And you picking up Urban from Arizona did not count because he was untendered RFA.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 11, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

We actually argued about this on AP :)

I have to admit I do not know the correct answer. What was stated was the team that cut a player was no eligible for compensation. The signing team was signing a player which counts against losing players in the formula. Sooooo, the Chiefs lost Wade Smith but signed 4 players which negates their loss of one player. No comp pick as I understand it.

"We feel very strongly that our best policy is to draft the best player. This isn't fantasy football." - Ted Thompson

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 12, 2011 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

Well, I did some additional checking

Reread AdamJT13’s blog for theory comments, and researched all of the players he listed as qualifying signs for the 17 teams that got comp picks last year. None of the qualifying players were cut by their previous teams. So I still believe a qualifying player is a qualifying player, it does not change from the team that lost them to the team that signs them.

I also worked my way through his complete list of potential qualifying players, and my interpretation seems to still hold true.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 13, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions

test case

Gibril Wilson. Cut by Oakland. Signed by Miami. Not listed by AdamJT13 as qualifying for either team. Salary not an issue.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 13, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

Cool ct

Thank you Houston :)

"We feel very strongly that our best policy is to draft the best player. This isn't fantasy football." - Ted Thompson

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 15, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

no thank you KC

Wade Smith was a big part of Arian Foster beating out Jamal Charles for the rushing title…… and Bernard Pollard did well for us in ’09 as well… cant say the same for ’10 however.

by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 18, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Pollard didn't cost you a dime to KC

Wade Smith was probably going to stay in KC till you totally overpaid.

Again Thank You Houston

"We feel very strongly that our best policy is to draft the best player. This isn't fantasy football." - Ted Thompson

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 18, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

We paid starting money to our starting guard

and improved our running game from 30th overall to 7th and churned out a rushing title, and Pollard didnt cost you anything but a quality football player, just like the Smith deal.

So, no really… thank YOU, KC.

by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 21, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

This is great ct

I’ve been waiting for adamjt13 to rear up and do this again but, as you said…. I was wondering where you were able to procure the data for each teams gains and losses in the way of free agency. I’d like to become self sufficient in the predicting of comp picks my own self.

Wolf. Wolfgang Wolf

by dbcouver on Mar 11, 2011 4:21 PM EST reply actions

It's madness

Many places have the info, but it’s often incomplete. I’ll give most credit to www.kffl.com. I found the best list of free agents there. In addition, when you scroll through the News section on their player pages, they were very good about listing whether players were cut, RFA or UFA status, who was tendered, etc. This is the hardest info to easily find, and the most relevant to comp pick eligibility.

The contract amounts are the hard part, because in this age of twitter, everyone is reporting signed players before they get the contract info. The original news leak always appeared first in my searches, no matter what terms I used. So it takes work. Kffl was not as reliable on the money amounts.

If there was one lesson I learned, it’s to start keeping track of this now for next year.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 11, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

Rotoworld is usually a pretty good place to find contract info

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Mar 11, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

Best site Ive found

if anyone has something better let me know

Winning

by Foilhat on Mar 20, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks man

i know it’s time consuming sheet. You’re right it would pay to keep a doc on current signed FAs and there amts.

Wolf. Wolfgang Wolf

by dbcouver on Mar 11, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

http://www.ninercaphell.com has contract info for everyone on the 49ers. i don’t know if there are similar sites for other teams.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Mar 13, 2011 1:57 AM EST up reply actions

Best sig ever

Free earl.

World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.

by Drizzzy on Mar 11, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

ct, yer a boss

2011 Draft - NY Giants

1) Akeem Ayers, OLB
2) Mikel LeShoure, RB
3) Jake Kirkpatrick, C
4) Curtis Brown, CB
5) ( ._.)
6) Henry Hynoski, FB
7) Ricardo Lockette, KR/PR

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 11, 2011 5:14 PM EST reply actions

good stuff

by Captain who on Mar 11, 2011 8:00 PM EST reply actions

nice post man, cleared alot of things up. thanks

"If only Flacco could put up numbers similar to Matt Ryan, or maybe just improve his stats year-to-year, he wouldn’t seem like such a wasted draft pick. It’s as if a young quarterback needs to put up better stats in his first three years than nearly every other quarterback to play in the NFL to justify a first round pick." - Amp

by Mr MaLoR on Mar 12, 2011 2:03 AM EST reply actions

so you expect SF to get 2 comp picks in the 7th?

excellent. that would give us 6 picks in the last 2 rounds. that should keep the late rounds interesting.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Mar 13, 2011 1:59 AM EST reply actions

Remember, comp picks come at the end of the round

So those 7th round comp picks could end up being Mr. Irrelevant (or their runners up).

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Mar 15, 2011 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

i know, it's still cool.

just to know that UDFAs won’t be the only thing i have to focus on while the draft is winding down.

We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.

by these3words on Mar 15, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

True

Some UDFAs end up being recruited by a bunch of teams after the draft.

by Greetings from the Lord Humongous! on Mar 16, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Jaguars?

We lose MSW, Durant, Morrison, or will that be for next year?

"Don't go away Mad, Just go away."

Follow Me On Twitter

by rhettchrystal on Mar 13, 2011 7:11 PM EDT reply actions

That would be next year

Without spending an hour trying to be 100%, I did find an article on your team blog that MSW and Durant were not going to be tendered. If they were not, you get no comp pick for them. And if they were not, WTF? Teams should be tendering every player that is not a complete waste of a roster spot.

Morrison should be a natural UFA, so he would count.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 13, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Post

I was also waiting for this to come out. Thanks for all your hard work.

by AKinn15 on Mar 14, 2011 2:06 AM EDT reply actions

I miss these early projections too.

Seahawks may have 2 others that qualify. I don’t know what the minimum contract is to qualify for compensation(as both are likely less than 1 mill). Lance Laury was a UFA signed by NY Jets and Justin Griffith was a UFA signed by Houston.

by bp42810 on Mar 14, 2011 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

Both those guys are too low

They are both at minimum contracts in the $600,000 area. Need to make ~50% more.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 14, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Antrel Rolle

How does he not factor into the Cards and Giants comp picks?

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Mar 17, 2011 8:51 AM EDT reply actions

He was cut by Arizona. Cut players do not count. They do not reward teams for jettisoning players, and they do not punish teams for taking guys whose team does not want them back.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 17, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Forgot that he was cut.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Mar 17, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

So the MONSTER contract ATL gave Dunta Robinson wont come into play more?

even though we signed Wade Smith and Neil rackers?

by theSpaceCityKid on Mar 18, 2011 5:08 PM EDT reply actions

Yep

Your only chance might be a 7th round net value pick because of the huge contract discrepancy. However, there has never been a net value pick awarded so far where a team signed more players than they lost. I don’t know all the background data behind this, so maybe it is possible.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Mar 20, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Great job ct17

Extremely well done.

Winning

by Foilhat on Mar 20, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions

Friday is the big day CT

good luck on your evals!

Might have a new Guru on MTD

"We feel very strongly that our best policy is to draft the best player. This isn't fantasy football." - Ted Thompson

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 24, 2011 11:40 PM EDT reply actions

I just found this update

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2011/03/note-about-2011-comp-picks.html

So maybe Adam will say something about the picks after they are made. Seems a perfectly plausable explanation as we are all fed up with the NFL Labor situation.

"We feel very strongly that our best policy is to draft the best player. This isn't fantasy football." - Ted Thompson

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 24, 2011 11:49 PM EDT reply actions