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Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft

The excitement is building as we inch closer and closer to the draft.  Mocking the draft is going to bring you a new mock draft every week.  This latest attempt has some interesting developments with Cam Newton jumping into the top spot.  I really want to stress that this is my prediction on how the draft will go and not where I value players.  You can check out my Big Board HERE and our Scouting Reports HERE.  Also look for my 2nd round coming out tomorrow.

1. Carolina (2-14)- Cam Newton- QB- Auburn

- As much as I hate to do it, I have a strong feeling that Newton will be the #1 overall pick.  Newton is a once in a life time type talent and the kind of player that could lead your franchise to several Super Bowls.  However, he is also the type of player that may never develop and set you back several years.  I think either way the potential will be too much for Carolina to pass.

2. Denver (4-12)- Marcell Dareus- DT- Alabama

- Denver will likely be starting two undersized defensive ends in Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers which means they need bulk in the middle.  Dareus is a better run stuffer than Fairley and that will impact the Broncos decision at #2.  I still feel that Bowers will be in play at this selection depending on Fox's true feelings on Ayers.

3. Buffalo (4-12)- Patrick Peterson- CB- LSU

- In my opinion, the Bills will be targeting Dareus but in this mock he is already off the board.  The next move for the Bills is taking the best athlete and playmaker available and that is Peterson.  Buffalo gets a first hand look at how a shutdown corner can help a defense by playing the Jets twice a year.

4. Cincinnati (4-12)- Blaine Gabbert- QB- Missouri

- It appears to me that Carson Palmer is dead serious about never again playing for the Bengals.  If this is the case, Cincinnati needs to make a move to ensure their future at the quarterback position.  I don't feel the can afford to gamble and wait see if they can get a quarterback later in this draft or next season.

5. Arizona (5-11)- Von Miller- OLB- Texas A&M

- Both Gabbert and Newton are off the board so Arizona needs to move on from the quarterback position.  Miller is the type of player that can have an immediate and major impact.  His ability to get to the quarterback has the potential to change games like Clay Matthews Jr.

Star-divide

6. Cleveland (5-11)- Da'Quan Bowers- DE- Clemson

- Cleveland is in a good position here to take the best player available and still have it fill a position of need.  The Browns are making the move from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense and they don't have a true pass rushing threat at defensive end.  Bowers can be the corner stone of their defense for years to come.

7. San Francisco (6-10)-  A.J. Green- WR- Georgia

- Wide receiver is not a major need but Green represents great value.  The trio of Green, Davis, and Crabtree will give defensive coordinators nightmares.  If San Francisco wants to go in a different direction I think Prince Amukamara is the next logical option.  

8. Tennessee (6-10)- Nick Fairley- DT- Auburn

- I still feel that Fairley remains in competition for the #1 overall pick but if he falls here Tennessee will be thrilled.  Fairley gives the Titans a disruptive force at the interior of their defensive line.

9. Dallas (6-10)- Tyron Smith- OT- USC

- Smith's stock continues to rise and the Cowboys are in need of an upgrade at the tackle position.  Smith shows the best technique and balance of all the tackle prospects.  His age and athletic ability give him a ton of potential.

10. Washington (6-10)-  Julio Jones- WR- Alabama

- The Redskins are very thin at the wide receiver position so the Jones selection seems like logical choice.  Jones has great size and speed giving him the ability to be a true playmaker.  He knows how to use his body in traffic and make the tough catch.

11. Houston (6-10)- Prince Amukamara- CB- Nebraska

- Amukamara will join a much criticized defensive backfield in Houston and hope to right the ship.  He is a technically sound corner with the potential to shutdown his side of the field.

12. Minnesota (6-10)- Anthony Castonzo- OT- Boston College

- This is a little high for Castonzo but the Viking offensive line was a major weak point last season.  Whoever the quarterback is next season they will need protection in order to be successful.  Minnesota could look to upgrade their pass rush with a guy like Robert Quinn but I am not sure how adding another undersized defensive end will improve their overall line play.

13. Detroit (6-10)-  Nate Solder- OT- Colorado

- Left tackles are routinely taken earlier than expected especially those with the potential of Solder.  I am not high on Solder but his athletic ability is through the roof.  Someone is going to take a chance to develop him and hope he ends up being a Pro Bowl caliber tackle.  The Lions might be a good fit because he learn behind their current tackles and take his time to develop.

14. St. Louis (7-9)-  Robert Quinn- DE/OLB- North Carolina

- The Rams have other needs but Quinn is a potentially game changing pass rusher.  At this point, the Rams just go with the best player available.  Coach Spags knows how to use talented pass rushers like Quinn.

15. Miami (7-9)- Mark Ingram- RB- Alabama

- No matter who the quarterback is in Miami they  will need to depend on a solid running game.  Both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are declining so adding Ingram would help rejuvenate the running game.

16. Jacksonville (8-8)- Justin Houston- DE/OLB- Georgia

- Jacksonville is still looking to solve their pass rushing struggles and Houston is a pass rushing specialist.  The fact that he weighed in at 270lbs and showed a strong lower half has me feeling comfortable about him playing defensive end.

17. New England (from Oakland 8-8)- Cameron Jordan- DE/DT- California

- Jordan is a great fit for New England's defensive scheme at the 5 technique position.

18. San Diego (9-7)- J.J. Watt- DE- Wisconsin

- There are more than a handful of teams looking to upgrade at the 5 technique position and San Diego is among that group.  Watt possesses the ideal skills to fill that role and contribute early in his career.

19. New York Giants (10-6)- Mike Pouncey- C/G- Florida

- The Giants were the most successful when they had a good running game and great offensive line.  That offensive line success started in the middle with Shaun O'Hara.  Recent struggles with injures and age have limited O'Hara's playing time and abilities.  Pouncey can come in and learn behind O'Hara and also be insurance in case of injuries.

20. Tampa Bay (10-6)- Ryan Kerrigan- DE- Purdue

- Tampa Bay's defense will benefit greatly from a consistent pass rush and Kerrigan can bring the pressure.  He is a bit undersized to play defensive end in a 4-3 but his pass rushing skills make it worth the gamble.

21. Kansas City (10-6)- Phil Taylor- NT- Baylor

- The Chiefs have been adding pieces to their defense line for a few years and Taylor represents the final piece to the puzzle.  His ability to clog the middle as a nose tackle is something 3-4 defensive teams covet.

22. Indianapolis (10-6)- Corey Liuget- DT- Illinois 

- The Colts decision makers have shown that they will take the best player available and it just so happens this time it fills a position of need.  Liuget's ability to play strong against both the run and pass will immediately upgrade the interior of the Colts defensive line.

23. Philadelphia (10-6)- Brandon Harris- CB- Miami

- I can see the Eagles going in any number of directions depending if there is a free agency period and how it shakes out.  Either way the cornerback position is an area of need and Harris represents a player with high upside.

24. New Orleans (11-5)- Adrian Clayborn

- Clayborn represents a player of value at a position of need.  The Saints will be looking for an upgrade over Alex Brown and Clayborn is the same type of player with more potential.

25. Seattle (7-9)- Ryan Mallett- QB- Arkansas

- The Seahawks are looking very closely at every available quarterback option.  If a new CBA is not in place by the draft they may need to use their first pick on a quarterback.  Mallett possesses a big arm and Pete Carroll isn't the type of person to be scared off by some personality question marks.

26. Baltimore (12-4)- Jimmy Smith- CB- Colorado

- Smith has both great size and speed which is something the Ravens covet in their secondary.  Baltimore has shown in the past they don't get scared away by rumored character red flags.

27. Atlanta (13-3)- Aldon Smith- DE- Missouri

- John Abraham is starting to wear down but his pass rushing presence has been a major factor in the Falcons success.  All the teams that sustain success do so by planning ahead.

28. New England (14-2)- Akeem Ayers- OLB- UCLA

- Ayers has seen his draft stock take a major hit after his poor showing at the combine.  However, his tape still shows his ability to make plays and cover ground.  New England is always on the lookout for talented linebackers and Ayers will fit nicely in their scheme.

29. Chicago (11-5)- Gabe Carimi- OT- Wisconsin

- I am among the few that feel Carimi can excel as a left tackle in the NFL.  Landing in Chicago might be his best chance to get an early shot at left tackle.  Also, he would have to be thrilled to have the opportunity to work with a talented coach like Mike Tice.

30. New York Jets (11-5)- Muhammad Wilkerson- DE/DT- Temple

- The Jets might be hoping that Phil Taylor is available at this spot because they need to find someone to solidify their nose tackle position.  However, the also have a need at defensive and and Wilkerson fits that need.

31. Pittsburgh (12-4)- Ben Ijalana OT- Villanova

- Ijalana is a bit of a project but projects at either tackle or guard.  Pittsburgh seen this past season that depth and versatility along the offensive line is very important.

32. Green Bay (10-6)- Cameron Heyward- DE/DT- Ohio State

- Heyward's stock has taken a hit due to an injury but that doesn't mean it isn't a talented player.  Heyward is strong against the run and can create pressure off the edge.

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No love for Aldon?

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Mar 22, 2011 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I think a few teams will be concerned about his bulk and strength. Also he is a man w/out a true position.

Jon Dove
NFL Analyst at Mocking the Draft
@Jon_Dove42

by Jon Dove on Mar 22, 2011 12:12 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm no expert but Aldon looks like an explosive DE to me.

Great pass rusher and a lot stronger than you might think. He is still very young and I think I would expect him to continue to add weight as he matures. Watching some of his videos he was used effectively at Tackle at times and looks very good against the run too.

I would put him neck and neck with Robert Quinn. I think he goes in the top fifteen.

"A lot of people have stayed 3 minutes in the ring with the bear, and they didn't do it by going at the bear. They did it by getting on their bike and running around. - Jim Schwartz 2011

by NorthLeft12 on Mar 22, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm a Giant fan with no interest in DE

but I still look a little and I have to say Aldon’s ‘09 tape has me thinking on the right team this dude is a bargain.Quinn was so awesome to me at first,very flexible,but I don’t know about his motor/toughness.Aldon looks angry when he plays.

by Shaunthegiant on Mar 22, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dont get me wrong Aldon Smith has a TON of upside. I just think he needs to land on a team that will use him right and give him time to develop. I dont like him as an OLB and he needs to get stronger at the POA in order to play DE. Upside but not a finished product.

Jon Dove
NFL Analyst at Mocking the Draft
@Jon_Dove42

by Jon Dove on Mar 22, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has put on 17 pounds of muscle since the offseason began and remains at I believe 7% body fat

So i think its fair to say he can and will get bigger while keeping his explosiveness.

I come ready, when I came out the womb I was ready, tell them mama that's why you had me, you knew I was ready. -Moss

Beating your opposition physically is great and all, but confounding them mentally is sooo much more fun.

by Redwolf333 on Mar 26, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Smith has both great size and speed which is something the Ravens covet in their secondary.

If recent history is any indicator, size isn’t very important to the powers that be in Baltimore. None of our cornerbacks are 6’ (I believe they’re all actually 5’10"), and Wilson is the only one to weigh in above 185-ish pounds. We haven’t had a 6’+ cornerback since the McAlister/Rolle tandem earlier in the decade. It’ll be interesting to see if the speed-over-size philosophy changes with our new Defensive Coordinator, but Pagano was the secondary coach that found success with those types of cornerbacks over the past couple of years.

Water covers 2/3 of the Earth's surface. Ed Reed covers the rest.

by Ampallang on Mar 22, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Actually Eric Da Costa has said that team FO is looking to get bigger at CB, so taking Jimmy Smith does make some sense.

Seeing as how pretty much every 1st round pass rusher is gone, it would come down to Smith, Brooks Reed or Gabe Carimi (if we arent going to re-sign Gaither)

by drd23 on Mar 22, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Akeem Ayers @ 28??!!!!!

That dude belongs NOWHERE in the 1st! He is a late 2nd at best. If we did grab him at 28, I’d have the biggest temper tantrum ever!!

Lakers,LeBron,Yankees,Colts,Giants,Dolphins,Steelers, & Jets: These are a few of my least favorite things.

by alphilip77 on Mar 22, 2011 12:32 PM EDT reply actions  

With so many picks early in the Draft the Patriots have the luxury of taking chances.

Jon Dove
NFL Analyst at Mocking the Draft
@Jon_Dove42

by Jon Dove on Mar 22, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

No.

That’s not why the Patriots do well. They thrive by making solid draft picks, not “chances.”

by Richard Hill on Mar 22, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ayers is a player and the chance they would be taking is that he plays quicker than his numbers suggest. Watching him play you can see his explosiveness. However, I think the pats will look to move out of that 28 spot if someone wants to move up to get a QB…

Jon Dove
NFL Analyst at Mocking the Draft
@Jon_Dove42

by Jon Dove on Mar 22, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speed isn't even my main concern.

It’s just that I look at game footage and he doesn’t seem to be making plays on a regular basis. It makes me wonder why exactly he was considered a first-round prospect. Clearly there’s something I’m missing.

by Abrantes on Mar 26, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

the hell did Ayers do to drop to the end of the 2nd?

dude was always a first round pick and still is. To get him at 28 is a steal. Maybe he’s not a top 15 pick like originally thought but he’s a top 25 player.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Mar 22, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow, the third best OT at 13?

And an admitted project who will sit on the bench for a year or two? Thanks.

If everyone thinks our line sucks so much, then a t least give us Pouncy as he can start day 1 at RG and move to C after a year or two (if he learns the position better than his year at UF). Don’t give us a workout-wonder project who has a good chance of not playing for years.

by ATL Lion on Mar 22, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

There is no way that Newton is a once in a lifetime player...

…and when was the last time a mobile quarterback like Newton won the Super Bowl? And don’t say Ben Roethlisberger because they have completely different games.

by Richard Hill on Mar 22, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Dou Williams

I'm getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.

"It would be tough for me to care less about their opinion, to be honest with you." Mike Tomlin

by Steel in FL on Mar 22, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rodgers just did this year

I come ready, when I came out the womb I was ready, tell them mama that's why you had me, you knew I was ready. -Moss

Beating your opposition physically is great and all, but confounding them mentally is sooo much more fun.

by Redwolf333 on Mar 26, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

By the way I really don't appreciate reaching for Solder at # 13.

I guess the good news is it makes everyone else behind us in the first round have a better pick.

The Lions will take the best value available which would be one of the available DEs, like Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, or Aldon Smith.

"A lot of people have stayed 3 minutes in the ring with the bear, and they didn't do it by going at the bear. They did it by getting on their bike and running around. - Jim Schwartz 2011

by NorthLeft12 on Mar 22, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I hope your right! I am not high on Solder but the rest of the world seems to be. This mock is what I predict might happen and not who I think they should select.

Jon Dove
NFL Analyst at Mocking the Draft
@Jon_Dove42

by Jon Dove on Mar 22, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jon, If you know that Mayhew takes the best player that fits, then go with that.

Mayhew does not reach in the first round. All his first round picks so far have been pretty conservative if you consider where those players were ranked by most. Stafford, Pettigrew, Suh, and Best. You might make a case that Best would have lasted to the Lions at # 34, but for the minor cost the Lions paid to move up it was worth getting him then.

"A lot of people have stayed 3 minutes in the ring with the bear, and they didn't do it by going at the bear. They did it by getting on their bike and running around. - Jim Schwartz 2011

by NorthLeft12 on Mar 22, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Carimi @ 29

Would be great for Bears, but most mocks have top 4 OT gone by the time Indi drafts, leaving the Bears to take Sherrod or a DT.
Interesting idea floated on WindyCityGridiron would be for Bears to trade down their 1st round to Raiders (who don’t have one) for a 2nd and 3rd.

Encouraging professional football in Israel

by BearDownIsrael on Mar 22, 2011 2:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I think if the top OT’s and Pouncey are off the board when the Bears pick they could trade down and get a decent guard in the 2nd round. If your going to move down you have to have more than a few guys you like in the 2nd round range… maybe an orlando franklin or danny watkins

Jon Dove
NFL Analyst at Mocking the Draft
@Jon_Dove42

by Jon Dove on Mar 22, 2011 2:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Carimi can be picked up by Steelers

then this could be the way it falls out:
2 48 OG/C Stephan Wisniewski
2 62 DT Marvin Austin/Drake Nevis
3 81 OT Orlando Franklin
3 93 WR Austin Pettis
4 125 CB Shareece Wright
5 157 LB Doug Bogue

Encouraging professional football in Israel

by BearDownIsrael on Mar 22, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Liuget seems better suited for the 3-tech than the 1 where they need to upgrade

but he could probably play it well and I could see the Colts not liking Carimi or Sherrod

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"Man is still the most extraordinary computer of all and women are even cooler" JFK

by shake n bake on Mar 22, 2011 2:23 PM EDT reply actions  

I just don’t see Polian taking ANY DT in the first round, esspecially in a deep DT class like this. If the Colts don’t like Sherrod or Carimi, I see them trading out.

by TrueBlue87 on Mar 22, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Liuget is better suited for the 3 tech but he uses his hands well and has a good anchor

Jon Dove
NFL Analyst at Mocking the Draft
@Jon_Dove42

by Jon Dove on Mar 22, 2011 2:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Justin Houston at 16 is interesting to say the least.

Aye, business is business and money is money i never said we were friends.

by 4QB on Mar 22, 2011 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed.

Wilkerson’s stock is rising, and I want no part of Heyward after the Vernon Gholston debacle.

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by Steck It Out on Mar 22, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tyson Alualu was BAP last year, I find that hard to believe.

Aye, business is business and money is money i never said we were friends.

by 4QB on Mar 22, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

He was on their board

Mocking the Draft’s value board is absolutely not the same as an NFL GM’s value board. Assuming he wasn’t the best available player on their board simply because he wasn’t that high on yours or Mel Kiper’s or MtD’s is asinine.

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by CaliforniaJag on Mar 23, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Love to get Pouncey

just hope the recent “lock” of him in every mock doesn’t make him go before the Giants or them pass on him for someone stupid like Tyron Smith or Nate Solder.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Mar 22, 2011 8:51 PM EDT reply actions  


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