Drafting QBs is ALOT easier than it used to be??

by durst on Mar 3, 2011 10:48 AM EST

Much has been made of the high BUST rate for 1st round picks in general, and especially for QBs....Jamarcus Russel, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, and Alex Smith...... teams around the NFL are littered with busts at the most important possition.

But is it possible that finding a QB in the first round has become easier?

It may be early to judge, but it sure looks as if both of the 2008 1st round QBs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are franchise QBs.

Same can be argued for Matt Stafford (if he can stay healthy), Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman from the 2009 Draft.

Sam Bradford just won Offensive Rookie of the year, and even fellow 2010 1st round draft choice Tim Tebow looked good in limited time.

Many of us projected Clausen as a top 10 pick in 2010, but the NFL GMs may have correctly identified him as a product of the Charie Weis system and the next Brady Quinn.

Further analysis :

St Louis Rams drafted Alex Barron, Tye Hill, Adam Carriker, Chris Long, and Jason Smith in the 5 yrs prior to drafting Bradford. The first three were busts and a pair of 2nd overall picks seem pretty average.

The Falcons hit gold in 2005 with Roddy White, but in the years between the 2001 selection of Michael Vick and the 2008 selection of Matt Ryan they also drafted TJ Duckett, Michael Jenkins, DeAngelo Hall, and Jamal Anderson. Although Jenkins remains a starter, and DeAngelo has had his moments with three different NFL teams, it becomes apparent that the Falcons find it easier to find a franchise QB than just about any other possition.

The NY Jets and Baltimore normally drafted well at most possitions (except Gholston) and are the exception.

The Detroit Lions have recently done real well sith Suh, and Calvin Johnson, in addition to Stafford, but look at every other pick since Herman Moore in 1991. It doesn't look pretty.

Looking to the future.....

With Andrew Luck being concidered the best QB prospect to come out since Peyton Manning, it would be a huge surprise is he were a BUST ( unavailable until the 2012 draft)

However, the 2011 QB crop of Mallett, Locker, Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Christian Ponder have less certain futures.

As we continue to debate which QB we like the best, and vote for who might be a bust, I offer this:

Am I alone in sensing the trend, that NFL QBs are becoming LESS of a bust risk?

Poll

Is it becoming easier for NFL scouts/GMs to identify who is likely to have success in the NFL?

yes

21 votes

No, the NFL draft is a crapshoot

65 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I think with a rookie wage scale we will see a lot more busts.

I think teams have just gotten scared to take risk on 1-st round QB’s. The cap hit for an early round QB is going to limit your team for years. I think with a pay scale teams will be more willing to risk a high pick on a QB, but on the flip side there won’t be the high pressure to play them right away since they are not the highest paid player on the roster.

by Pirate25 on Mar 3, 2011 11:19 AM EST reply actions

Baltimore not so great

Kyle Boller, Mark Clayton, Adam Terry, Yamon Figurs, Dwan Edwards, Musa Smith, etc.

As to your point, I think teams are doing their homework more now than ever. Nobody wants to draft the next Ryan Leaf.

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Mar 3, 2011 11:22 AM EST reply actions

I should have explained....the Jets and Ravens generally draft well in the FIRST round...

In my rough draft, I did make mention of Kyle Boller but edited it out, and the Ravens can’t seem to draft WR well

by durst on Mar 3, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

Systems

There is also alot of talk about system. Many people, including myself, don’t think Aaron Rodgers would have been successful had he started as a rookie. Having 2-3 years to learn to make NFL reads and playing at NFL speed really helped. Further, because the spread offense is less demanding on a QB than the pro-style system with regards to reads, total routes required ot know, and deep balls, the stock of QBs has depreciated a little because they now tend to require a little tutalage time.

by TrueBlue87 on Mar 3, 2011 11:37 AM EST reply actions

Impossible to say for sure whether or not Rodgers would have been successful out of the gate

One thing we do know is that the packers were quick to send Favre packing in favor of Rodgers no matter how much heat they way they handled that situation.

Another thing is that Rodgers made some amazing plays in his first year as a starter. I also don’t think any other city in NFL history has forgotten their HOF QB (Favre) as fast as Green Bay has.

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Mar 3, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

*no matter how much heat they took for the way they handled that situation.

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Mar 3, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

considering Jake Locker was slated to be the 1st or 2nd QB taken

if he declared last year…i still think its a product of getting lucky and like TrueBlue87 said, getting into the right system

2011 Dream Draft

1) Mike Pouncey, C
2) Mikel LeShoure, RB
3) Ras-I Dowling, CB
4) Mark Herzlich, OLB
5) >:(
6) Henry Hynoski, FB
7) Alex Henery, K

by BigBlueIntervention on Mar 3, 2011 1:39 PM EST reply actions

I dunno that it's getting easier,

and I dunno that you can find measurable results in the draft picks themselves but I think there is more success and I think teams have gotten better at drafting QBs. It’s not easier but they’ve gotten better. Mayock’s said this as well. It feels right.

by jacobstevens on Mar 3, 2011 4:20 PM EST reply actions