2011 Draft Bust: Blaine Gabbert
by SuperHorn on Mar 4, 2011 10:39 AM EST
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PrintThis is copied and pasted from my original post over at Music City Miracles. We had a good discussion in that thread, but I'm really looking for some additional feedback. Specifically, I have yet to hear a good reason why Blaine Gabbert is a legitimate draft prospect other than, "Mike Mayock says so."
I cannot understand where this national recognition for Blaine Gabbert has come from. Lately, there are even comparisons to Sam Bradford popping up. I find myself watching NFL Network at night, and as Mike Mayock continues to pimp Gabbert I can't shake the feeling that Ashton Kutcher is just waiting to pop out and tell me I've been Punk'd.
Let me first start with a little background here. My family has ties to Missouri, and, while I didn't attend the school, I have been following the football program for some time now. And, as I developed an unhealthy obsession for the game of football over the past 5 years, I've watched a lot of their games. So, this shouldn't be taken as a dislike for Gabbert, or anything of that sort. I'm a fan of the kid, and really hope he pans out in the NFL. That said, I still don't "get it".
All of this stems from the fact that I don't get sold on the hyped combine metrics. Big Arm. Good 40 time. Huge vertical. Those things are great, but I need production before any of that matters. Without production, these "measurables" mean nothing.
Gabbert doesn't have that production. To further that point, follow me through the jump. We'll take a look at two examples: Chase Daniel, as it gives us some comparison within the same system, and Sam Bradford, to illustrate the gigantic disconnect in production between the two players.
| Completion % | TD% | INT% | YPA | |
|
Sam Bradford (So.) |
67.9 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 9.77 |
| Chase Daniel (Jr.) | 68.2 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 7.65 |
| Chase Daniel (Sr.) | 72.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 8.21 |
| Blaine Gabbert (So.) | 58.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 8.07 |
| Blaine Gabbert (Jr.) | 63.4 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 6.71 |
*Before we begin this first exercise, let's make one thing clear. This is not, and should not, be an argument for the superiority of Chase Daniel as a college QB (even though the statistics would support that argument). Rather, this is meant to illustrate a) The type of production that is to be expected in the Mizzou spread offense and b) the disconnect between the idea that 4" in height and worse production should be the difference between a first round grade and being undrafted. I'd also like to note that in both of Daniel's season outlined above he attempted more than 500 passes (563 as a Junior, and 528 as a Senior). Gabbert never cracked 500 attempts (445 as a Junior, and 475 as a Senior). With more attempts, you'd expect per play statistics to drop off, however that is not reflected in the data.
Watching Mizzou over the past 5 years, I've come to discount their gaudy statistics. With the insertion of Southlake Carroll product Chase Daniel, Missouri increasingly began to put up inflated passing numbers. Just as one would write off others production to the system (Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan), I began to do the same for Chase Daniel at Missouri. So, it came as a bit of a shock when, as the college season progressed in 2010, Blaine Gabbert's name started moving up draft boards.
Not only was Gabbert not thriving in Mizzou's system, he actually regressed as a Junior. His TD% as a Junior isn't even half that of Daniel's as a Senior. Translated to the NFL, Gabbert's Junior Season 6.7 YPA would have been good for 24th in the NFL, tied with Chad Henne. By contrast, Sam Bradford, who is compared to Gabbert more and more each day, had a YPA of 9.77 in his last full college year. That's not even the worst of it, Gabbert's TD% would be 25th in the NFL. His INT%, really the only highlight of his statistics, would just crack the top 10.
The first reaction to this many will have is that college isn't the NFL. However, that's precisely the point. Gabbert, if he were a top talent in a pass happy system, should be putting up statistics that are out of this world. Instead, he can't even surpass his predecessor who was deemed undraftable. And, now we're supposed to believe that he'll be able to step into an NFL system and suddenly be more productive than he was in a system that is designed to inflate production? Excuse me if I'm a little skeptical.
Last, but not least in my mind, the kid struggles when it matters. With the Big 12 South Title in their control, Gabbert laid a huge egg against one of the worst defenses in the Big 12, Texas Tech. 12/30 95 Yards 0/0. To his credit, he had a big game the week before against Oklahoma, but the wheels really fell off after that, culminating in a 1 TD/2 INT game in a loss against Iowa in the Insight Bowl. Gabbert struggled similarly in his bowl game year before against Navy, completing less than 50% of his passes, and, again, throwing 1 TD and 2 INTs. Are these really the types of performances you'd be willing to risk a top ten pick on?
Before taking the blind leap onto the Gabbert bandwagon just because Mike Mayock or Todd McShay says to, do a little research. Watch the tape. Look at the statistics. Impressive interviews and 40 times are great, but none of that matters if it can't be translated to the gridiron.
As we wrap this up, I'll leave you with some final numbers to digest. Below are how Gabbert stacked up against the rest of the nation this year in passing categories.
QB Rating: 64th
Yards/Game: 25th
Yards/Attempt: 78th
Completion %: 32nd
TDs: 57th
INTs: 41st
Yards: 21st
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I don't see him panning out either.
I really hope the Bengals don’t draft him. He has way too many red flags.
"I bet that sex Bengals fan is really pissed now." -DT3428
I don't get..
How you mention people write off QB’s like Harrell and Brennan but yet give Comparative stats at the end.
Bryant Moniz of Hawaii is ranked pretty high in some of those stats. I don’t want him under center for my team.
Blaine isn’t a human highlight reel like Newton, but he’s a solid QB. I’m personally a fan of him and unlike the the guy above. I really would support the Bengals drafting him. (but that won’t happen because our FO is retarded.. questionable.
1st round draft wishes.
Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fairley or AJ Green!
Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving and Harrison Barnes!
Re:
How you mention people write off QB’s like Harrell and Brennan but yet give Comparative stats at the end.
I don’t follow.
Blaine isn’t a human highlight reel like Newton, but he’s a solid QB.By what metrics? Height, and golden locks? His Senior year stats are a stinky pile of dog shit, despite operating out of one of the most QB friendly systems in the entire country. He’s ranked 8/12 in the Big 12 by QB Rating. How does he just get a pass for this?
Just as one would write off others production to the system (Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan)
But then give stats that compare to players like that.
The stat’s don’t justify his games.
He has great pocket mobility, overall pretty good accuracy and his intangibles are off the charts.
(This isn’t an insult). But before the draft time how many times did you honestly watch Blaine Gabbert? It just seems like you haven’t watch much on him, but are very familiar with his stat page.
1st round draft wishes.
Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fairley or AJ Green!
Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving and Harrison Barnes!
Did you actually read my post?
I watched probably 6 full games of his this year and last.
The stat’s don’t justify his games.What does that even mean? In my experience, Gabbert apologist love to make sweeping generalizations, without actually specifically addressing the issue. The reason for this is that there is no reasonable way to address his amazingly average college career.
Do you really have a grip on just how bad a 3.3% TD percentage is? That’s piss poor even by NFL standards. Yet, I’m supposed to be led to believe that will increase when he makes the jump to the pros? Does no one else recognize this backwards logic?
I'd like to add to this a little more.
Cam Newton has gotten a lot of flack this year for being in a one read system. Conversely, Gabbert gets a little praise because he was in a multiple read system (though, he, like Cam, also gets a deduction for running the spread).
Will someone explain to me in what universe this makes sense:
50 Total TD’s in a one-two read system < 21 Total TDs in a multiple (2-3) read system
This isn’t support for Cam. He has enough red flags of his own. But, he has more total TDs in one year that Gabbert does in his entire college career. And save me the “system” argument. Chase Daniel threw 39 Touchdowns in Gary Pinkel’s offense in 2008. That’s more than double what Gabbert put up this year.
Daniel also had NFL quality receivers to throw to
Gabbert has had one…last year….
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
actually that was 2 years ago
with Alexander.
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
you're ignoring how bad
his receivers were, with the exception of Moe
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
Plus Gabbert falls well short of the 37 games started mark....
Which by itself seems to be a good predictor if a QB will have success in the NFL. And he’s barely over the 60% completion mark (61 % career).
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
this is a much better write-up about something I touched on in January when I asked if Chase Daniel and Brian Brohm are to blame for the lack of confidence in Gabbert and Mallett?
You can see how Gabbert only threw for 16 TDs his last yr, while Chase threw for 100 in his last thee seasons (notice the yardage difference too).
I think thats concerning, but I acknowledge the WRs there are not up to recent standards.
I was pretty high on Brohm comming out whose lowest completion percentage was 63.6 , while Mallett (with one less year) only broke 55 in his last yr.
I finally conduded:
I think that both Gabbert and Mallett simply have a better arm and better size than those that came before them.
I think they will both be drafted high, top 10, and will have good, but not great careers.
@ superhorn
I am going to look at this just from a film stand point
Blaine Gabbert video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5nGYHLeB2g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9BB0mwOBMg&feature=related
what i see here is a quarterback that throws a ton of screens and dink and dunk passes. Mixed in with his happy feet and lack of pocket presents and to me this just seems like a very scary prospect to claim is a projected number 1 overall.
Cam Newton video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE_fYORFXa8&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvpZyJvmupM&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm6Vmg-tACc&feature=player_embedded
I only linked Newtons video because what is alarming to me is that it almost seems like Newton is what some claim Gabbert is…and Gabbert is what some claim Newton is. To me i strongly suggest sports fans to do their own research because guys like Mike Maylock have their on perspective and does that mean he is right? (don’t see these draft experts calling every pick right including hall of famers that go undrafted)
Also note in the Videos how many balls are just dropped my Auburn recievers it is a alarming amount of drops. Gabbert may not have had the recievers to really excel as well..but considering what Newton did with his poor group of pass catchers the video and the stats are alarming.
If you just watch Video of Gabbert i can’t see how anyone can buy into him being projected number one. Prior to Luck saying he was staying in college Gabbert wasn’t even talked about as a first rounder….now he is projected as number one? I mean most number one draft picks have a signiture game or a play or SOMETHING that propells them forward…..all Gabbert had was Luck deciding he was staying in school…this sound like alot of fans are victoms of the Gabbert Hype Train.
Detroit Lions Mock Draft
1. Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
2. Nate Irving LB NC State
3. Ahmad Black S Florida
4. Austin Pettis WR Boise State
5. Stevan Ridley RB LSU
7. special teams coverage demon
by Shankdiddy on Mar 4, 2011 12:44 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
I agree with you here rec'd
when I sat down and watched tape on him, I saw everything you did. While he’s accurate on short passes, he doesn’t place the ball very well. He has incredible happy feet and only looks for one, maybe two receivers before taking off. Occasionally he makes a great throw but other then that I see a low 1st round pick. A guy with great potential but needs alot of coaching.
Unforunately, I think he is going to excel in his pro day which will lead to the Panthers drafting him 1st overall. It’s coming get ready for it.
And now for something completely different
Rec'd
It’s the old bait and switch scouting technique. I don’t get it.
Nice analysis
Thanks
"It’s easy to lie with statistics, but it’s easier to lie without them." -Fred Mosteller
by John Stephens on Mar 4, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
DUDE.
that is exactly what I’ve seen. Gabbert really is a 6,4 version of Clausen with better character. I see his physical upside but he is innately inaccurate and lacks poise. Cam has that poise for a one read guy that’s very impressive and has made some breathtaking throws.
I don’t see how anyone is ranked above Cam in terms of talent and NFL compatability except for his ‘character concerns’.
Mallett is a grade A bum who couldn’t do anything vs a good defense. He’s also half as mobile as the least mobile fat guy in the NFL.
Locker is innacurate but has the physical upside, just don’t see the poise either.
Overall I’d only give Cam a top 10 grade due to his upside and confidence and poise, as well as his being a ‘winner’ and I don’t put stock in that phrase, but I’ve seen him lead come backs and if I’m picking in the top 10 I want a QB who has the mental fortitude to never give up.
Bradford to Onobun!
by Infemous on Mar 5, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Very interesting post.
While I don’t really see it as the smartest possible pick, I could get myself excited about my team drafting Newton. I would be really pissed about the Bengals drafting Gabbert that high, though, and I couldn’t talk myself into being happy.
"I bet that sex Bengals fan is really pissed now." -DT3428
furthermore about "system" QBs:
I guess have heard for years that QBs for Purdue don’t translate well, then along came Drew Brees and Kyle Orton.
Then I heard the Ted Tedford theory, (after Kyle Boller) but Aaron Rodgers seems to be disproving that one too.
After reading this
I sure hope the Rams draft Sam Bradford. He’s the best available.
Wolf. Wolfgang Wolf
by dbcouver on Mar 4, 2011 1:18 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Please come over to CatScratchReader and talk some sense into Panther fans...
They are desperately drinking the Gabbert kool-aid. Very worrisome!
Yeah boy!
I was over there. There are drinking the Blaine Gabbert kool-aid by the barrels over at Cat Sratch Reader. I’ve heard of fandom, but damn.
The biggest knock on Gabbert is his inaccuracy with throws over 10-15 yds.
However, he was good at getting the ball in his playmakers hands. He had a heck of one in 2009 in Danario Alexander. Unfortunately, he had none in 2010. The Missouri system uses the dink and dunk, high percentage, multiple screen offense, similar to what OU runs. Now I’m not comparing Gabbert and Bradford and their future NFL careers, but they do come from the same system, and have similar attributes in terms of arm strength, accuracy in the short range, and above average decision making. OU players cannot even be considered to be compared to MU players, as clearly OU brings in much higher rated prospects, therefore Bradford benefited greatly from having NFL caliber players around him, (as did Chase Daniel), while Gabbert had very few.
Bottom line is that if Bradford can be a #1 draft pick, then so can Gabbert.
With the 21st pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select:
-Torrey Smith, WR Maryland - Akeem Ayers, LB UCLA
-Phil Taylor, NT Baylor - Stefen Wisnieski, C Penn St.
I'll take it!
@FalconMF27
I am sorry but i really don’t get any of your points here.
1. Gabbert had poor targets to throw too? you restated what i said in my post about Gabbert throwing dink and dunk passes only with a positive spin. And you can’t compare Gabbert to Bradford because Bradford displayed the instincts in the passing game that they could project into a pro offence. And this had nothing to do with what current offence both qb’s played in. Bradford was rated high throughout the draft process where as Blaine Gabbert wasn’t even meantion till after Luck decided to return to school.
2. You point out that bradford had poor targets. Yet i find it hard to fault his targets for his decisions with the football as a passer. As displayed in my post above Newton with far worse recievers displayed the type of instincts in the passing game to allow for throwing down the field. Where Gabbert really doesn’t display that he is instinctive in the passing game…doesn’t trust the pocket…wants to take off and run….and rarely throws a pass you would have to consider a NFL caliber pass.(main reason NFL teams really have to study spread quarterbacks). Again this isn’t a post about Newton but in these videos that i linked he displayed skill in feeling the pocket and keeping his eyes down field and making plays with his arm. Even though he didn’t have the volume of attempts he was still effective. And the theory that Newton is a one read and run quarterback is spread by people that don’t watch film or just read a scouting report for their data. As Newtons last 169 pass attempts he ran 15 times from designed passing plays…which = 9 percent of the time that he decided to take off and run…….which is 1 percent more than what Aaron Rodgers this season.
Its really just seems like Gabbert is really who some claim Newton is….and Newton is what some Claim what Gabbert is…..the tape is undeniable you really can’t deny what you see on tape unless you want to just say no ….the stats don’t lie unless you really want to believe some scouting reports.
If Luck was in this Draft Blaine Gabbert wouldn’t be rated this high….and he wouldn’t even be anywhere near talk of first pick in the draft. Jimmy Clausen was a better pro prospect (not that he worked out so well). He just doesn’t display the throws or the instincts to project as a stud NFL qb…MUCH LESS first overall.
Detroit Lions Mock Draft
1. Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
2. Nate Irving LB NC State
3. Ahmad Black S Florida
4. Austin Pettis WR Boise State
5. Stevan Ridley RB LSU
7. special teams coverage demon
by Shankdiddy on Mar 4, 2011 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you nuts bro
Sam Bradford put up 3rd best rookie qb season in history. Do you honestly believe Gabbert could do that on any team? let alone the lowly Rams?
Gabbert is barely a 60%cp QB, misses open guys, gets happy feet and has poor poise. One thing Sam Bradford has ALWAYS had was poise and the ability to stay calm under pressure. It set him in good stead and it’s one of those attributes that’s overlooked and to the detriment of a franchise. Clausen a perfect example of this…
Bradford to Onobun!
i ...am....nuts...?
hmmmm…didn’t you just agree with what i said above ? lol…you are saying what i just said. That Gabbert’s skill sets don’t match up to his hype.
Detroit Lions Mock Draft
1. Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
2. Nate Irving LB NC State
3. Ahmad Black S Florida
4. Austin Pettis WR Boise State
5. Stevan Ridley RB LSU
7. special teams coverage demon
Re:
Now I’m not comparing Gabbert and Bradford and their future NFL careers, but they do come from the same system, and have similar attributes in terms of arm strength, accuracy in the short range, and above average decision making.
Are you serious with this? Oklahoma runs a multiple spread. Mizzou runs more of an “air raid” scheme. Running the spread does not make it the same offense.
Put another way, do you think the 2007 Patriots, and the 2008 Miami Dolphins Wildcat is the same offense? They are both spread variations.
Bottom line is that if Bradford can be a #1 draft pick, then so can Gabbert.
Sam Bradford put up 50 TDs (more than 3x as many as Gabbert this year) his Sophomore season. Production isn’t even close. Not in the same universe. The correlation you’re making is, respectfully, obsurd. The two could not have been any more different in college.
Newton doesn't have a better chance of being a bust
It’s just that if he does turn out to be one, it’ll be far more dramatic- and maybe tragic, than Gabbert’s would. Newton has the talent and the athleticism to revolutionize the position. He’s poised to be what folks envisioned Terrell Pryor becoming when the recruiting battle was fought over him out of high school. He could very well be Ben Rapistoethlisberger but with a better arm and way better wheels. Meanwhile, Blaine would be fulfilling his potential as a run of the mill starter on the NFL level.
by IgnatiusJReilly on Mar 5, 2011 8:03 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You got me
I think the ultra-conservative offensive approach of Jim Tressel at tOSU may have hampered his development so much that it might take a couple years under an innovative yet patient QB coach to realize his potential.
by IgnatiusJReilly on Mar 5, 2011 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
In my opinion all the Gabbert Hype is to push Cam Newton out of the Top QB spot. I’m not even a Newton fan and its pretty obvious there numbers aren’t even close both of them coming out of the spread and Newton outshines him threw and threw.
Serously what QB in this years draft isn't a bust waiting to happen?
by PatsR18andDONEwithoutCHEATING on Mar 6, 2011 1:07 AM EST reply actions
Any QB taken after the 2nd :)
Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U
by NJD28 on Mar 6, 2011 2:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
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