2011 NFL Draft: Taking ends early a gamble

by Dan Kadar on Apr 4, 2011 1:00 PM EDT in 2011 NFL Draft

Following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 20th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, as many as six college defensive ends could be taken.

That would be Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson), Robert Quinn (North Carolina), Aldon Smith (Missouri), Cameron Jordan (California), JJ Watt (Wisconsin) and Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue). If they're all picked, that would be more than any year going back to 2006.

Although it could probably be said for any position, the success rate of college defensive ends taken since 2006 in the top 20 has been poor. They're especially spotty when you look at ends who remain in a 4-3 system.

After the jump, see which ends have been picked that high. (Players who have predominantly played linebacker have an asterisk)

2010
10th overall: Tyson Alualu | Jacksonville Jaguars
13th overall: Brandon Graham | Philadelphia Eagles *
15th overall: Jason Pierre-Paul | New York Giants
16th overall: Derrick Morgan | Tennessee Titans
Notes: It's probably too early to judge last year's rookies, but Alualu certainly looks like a good pick. Graham was uneven in six starts, finishing the year with three sacks and 12 tackles. Pierre-Paul is still a work in progress, but had 4.5 sacks. Morgan landed on injured reserve in October with a torn ACL.

2009
Third overall: Tyson Jackson | Kansas City Chiefs
11th overall: Aaron Maybin | Buffalo Bills *
13th overall: Brian Orakpo | Washington Redskins *
16th overall: Larry English | San Diego Chargers *
18th overall: Robert Ayers | Denver Broncos *
Notes: Jackson was a surprise pick third overall and is merely part of Kansas City's line rotation. Maybin has been a colossal bust. Orakpo has made two Pro Bowls and vowed on Twitter that "im gonnadestroy the league next season." OK. English rarely sees the field for San Diego and has five sacks in two years. Ayers only has 1.5 sacks in two years and has been a below-average contributor.

2008
Second overall: Chris Long | St. Louis Rams
Sixth overall: Vernon Gholston | New York Jets
Eighth overall: Derrick Harvey | Jacksonville Jaguars
Notes: Following a 33-day holdout, Harvey's career has never taken off. In three seasons, he has eight sacks. In 2010, he made more than $1 million per tackle. He reportedly earned $12.36 million last season for 12 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Gholston is widely regarded as the biggest bust of the last decade. Long has finally seen his career start to go upward moving to the left side.

2007
Fourth overall: Gaines Adams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Eighth overall: Jamaal Anderson | Atlanta Falcons
13th overall: Adam Carriker | St. Louis Rams
17th overall: Jarvis Moss | Denver Broncos
Notes: Adams, Moss and Carriker didn't even last three seasons with the teams that drafted them. Moss nearly retired in 2009 after being switched to linebacker. Carriker has found new life as a 3-4 end, probably his most natural position. Anderson has shifted from end to tackle.

2006
First overall: Mario Williams | Houston Texans
13th overall: Kamerion Wimbley | Cleveland Browns *
20th overall: Tamba Hali | Kansas City Chiefs
Notes: At times, Williams has been a terror and ordinary at others. He has the ability and size to be a superstar. How he'll be able to do that in Houston's new 3-4, though, remains to be seen. Wimbley struggled often with the Browns and never got into a groove as a pass rusher. He's played a little better for Oakland, but hasn't lived up to the expectation of being the next DeMarcus Ware. Hali has been a star for Kansas City, recording 41.5 sacks in five years. A move to linebacker has been especially beneficial for Hali. He was arguably the league's best pass rusher in 2010, finishing the year with 14.5 sacks.

Tweet Comment 14 comments | Add comment | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Very good idea for an article Dan.

But is it fair to include players who are actually being asked to be 3-4 Rush OLBs?
That is what Maybin, English, Ayers, and Gholston were all doing. I think the success rate of guys who stayed in the 4-3 DE is higher, than where they are asked to switch to the 3-4 OLB position.
The 4-3 guys are [ignoring last year as it is way too early for most of them] Orakpo, Long, Harvey, Adams, Anderson, and Williams. That is a 50% success rate which is probably pretty normal for any position in the first round.

I think the lesson here is not to beware of DEs, but be very careful about matching the player to the right scheme. Oh, and be patient.

"I read one article, I said, 'This guy doesn't know what he's talking about,' " Mayhew said. "Then I read another one, and I thought, 'Wait a minute, they're all saying the same thing.' -Martin Mayhew 2011 regarding Draft Gurus.

by NorthLeft12 on Apr 4, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

At the time I think the Bills were running a 4-3

That may have been one of the reasons the Bills switched

I'm getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.

"It would be tough for me to care less about their opinion, to be honest with you." Mike Tomlin

by Steel in FL on Apr 4, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

So does this mean the Redskins are ruining Brian Orakpo by switching to a 3-4?

by 8vechkin on Apr 4, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I could be wrong...

but I’m fairly certain he played a lot of 3-4 at Texas. Personally I think he would be very food at either position. It’s more a question of how can the Skins put talent around him better.

by polodude017 on Apr 4, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

He seemed to do real well as a rookie in the 4 - 3.

I just think he will not make the best use of his skills as a 3-4 OLB vs a 4-3 DE. He appears to be a good enough player to do real well in either scheme.

by NorthLeft12 on Apr 4, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Orakpo

I’m not sure if it was 3-4, but Texas definitely at times used his athleticism to drop out and cover space. Might just have been giving a different look to the offense.

Rookie year Orakpo played SAM on normal downs and moved up to LDE on obvious passing downs. I thought it was genius.

"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

by ct17 on Apr 4, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions