Rookie Outlook based on Current ADP (Top 200) for PPR Redraft Leagues
by JDub15 on Jul 25, 2011 11:56 AM EDT
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PrintAs the league year gets closer, we take a look at the incoming rookie class at their current ADP’s (PPR) and recommend whether they will outperform or under-perform their draft status.
Mark Ingram, RB (New Orleans)
Current ADP: 61 Overall (RB 24)
Where you can get him: Early 5th
Verdict: Outperform
I guarantee Ingram’s ADP will skyrocket once we get closer to the season; grab him for a discount while you can. The Saints didn’t give up a king’s ransom in the draft to let Ingram sit idle on the bench. Reggie Bush will be cut; Pierre Thomas simply doesn’t have Ingram’s talent. Ingram should quickly assume the feature back role in one of the league’s most prolific offenses, don’t be surprised if he finishes in the top ten at the end of the year.
Daniel Thomas, RB (Miami)
Current ADP: 67 overall (RB 27)
Where you can get him: Mid to Late 5th
Verdict: Under-perform
The effectiveness of the Miami ground game has waned; I’m skeptical that Mike Pouncey is the panacea the Dolphins are hoping for. One of Ricky or Ronnie may be back, and if not, the Dolphins have already been linked to several backs in free agency, including Reggie Bush and Ahmad Bradshaw. Thomas will be in a time share in a middling offense, spend your 5th round draft capital elsewhere.
Julio Jones, WR (Atlanta)
Current ADP: 77 (WR 30)
Where you can get him: Mid 6th
Verdict: Outperform
Atlanta achieved their goal of becoming more explosive on offense by trading all the way to number six overall to snag Jones. Jones should have no problem dominating number two cornerbacks while Rhoddy White draws the majority of the coverage. The pertinent question is, will Mike Smith open up the offense enough to allow for big production? Given how well Matt Ryan played last season, we have to believe that the answer is yes; look for Jones to finish inside the top 30 wide receivers.
A.J. Green, WR (Cincinnati)
Current ADP: 86 overall (WR 34)
Where you can get him: Early 7th
Verdict: Outperform
A.J. Green has the kind of transcendent talent that will make him an instant number one in Cincinnati, but does he belong on your fantasy roster? The answer may depend on what you think of fellow draftee Andy Dalton; count me among the faithful. Dalton is cerebral enough to know his best chance at success is feeding Green, who should outperform his 7th round draft status.
Mikel LeShoure, RB (Detriot)
Current ADP: 83 (RB 33)
Where you can get him: Late 6th
Verdict: Under-perform
LeShoure is an excellent talent, but where he fell on draft day is disappointing from a fantasy perspective. His value will be capped by the explosive Jahvid Best and one of the poorest offensive lines in the NFL.
Making the decision to draft LeShoure might depend on how you view the Lion’s this year - if you think they will win their share of games, then LeShoure is a good bet to grind out yards in the 4th quarter as they kill the clock. If your outlook is pessimistic, then LeShoure is unlikely to get enough work to justify pulling the trigger on him the in the 6th.
Ryan Williams, RB (Arizona)
Current ADP: 97 (RB 37)
Where you can get him: Early 8th
Verdict: Under-perform
Williams is a superior talent with another unfortunate landing spot. His fantasy value is submarined in the short-term by the fact that he’ll be in a time share on one of the league’s worst rushing teams. The QB situation remains desperate and nothing has been done to improve an atrocious offensive line.
Be ready to change your outlook if Arizona ends up with a competent QB and one or two free agent acquisitions along the OL. Chris Wells’ proneness to injury is reaching the level of absurdity; if Williams gets in the field in a feature back capacity, Wells may never win the job back.
Roy Helu, RB (Washington)
Current ADP: 123 (RB 46)
Where you can get him: Early 10th
Verdict: Under-perform
In a somewhat head-scratching move, Helu was the first back chosen by the Shannan regime in the 2011 draft. While Shannan has a long history of turning middling talents into fantasy superstars, Helu does not appear destined for the same fate. The Washington backfield is extremely muddled and no one will be surprised if they add Daren Sproles or another contender during free agency; there are more attractive options in the 10th.
Shane Vereen, RB (New England)
Current ADP: 131 Overall, (RB 48)
Where you can get him: Late 10th
Verdict: Outperform
Vereen is simply the most talented back in a prolific offense; he should get every opportunity to take a sizable piece of the New England workload. Even though the odd tandem of the Law Firm (BJGE) and fan favorite Danny Woodhead performed admirably, actions speak louder than words; Belichick didn’t spend a second round pick on Vereen if he was satisfied with his current backfield. The Cal product is well worth a roll of the dice in the 10th.
Greg Little, WR (Cleveland)
Current ADP: 136 (WR 52)
Where you can get him: Early 11th
Verdict: Under-perform
Some view Little and see a high-upside prospect who has the athletic talent to dominate in the NFL. I see a lazy route runner who will need to work incredibly hard to refine his game. I don’t see Little advancing enough to warrant becoming more than the number 3 or 4 target on a run first team. He’s one to keep your eyes on in dynasty but let someone else take the risk in redraft.
Delone Carter, RB (Indianapolis)
Current ADP: 142 (RB 51)
Where you can get him: Late 11th
Verdict: Outperform
Carter was drafted to add some much needed physicality to the Indy backfield. It’s not hard to envision a scenario in-which Joseph Addai leaves town, and Donald Brown succumbs
to injury or ineffectiveness, leaving Carter as the primary ball carrier in a Peyton Manning led offense. He’s well worth the gamble in the 11th or 12th, and he’s a must have handcuff to Donald Brown if Joseph Addai is allowed to walk in free agency.
Demarcco Murray, RB (Dallas)
Current ADP: 147 (RB 53)
Where you can get him: Early 12th
Verdict: Under-perform
Jerry Jones considered pulling the trigger on Murray in the second round, which tells us that the Cowboys were very high on him. Marion Barber being cut is a foregone conclusion, but even if Murray wins a piece of the starting job from Felix Jones or Tashard Choice, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he gets enough of the workload to warrant an every week start in your fantasy lineup.
Kendall Hunter, RB (San Francisco)
Current ADP: 174 (RB 61)
Where you can get him: Mid 14th
Verdict: Under-perform
A must-have handcuff for Frank Gore owners, but nothing more.
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