Will at TE go in the first round in the 2012 NFL draft?

by durst on Jan 30, 2012 11:59 AM EST

Prior to last year, there has been at least one TE selected in the first round every year since 2000, but rarely more than one. Last year, the top TE prospect was Kyle Rudolph, but he suffered a season-ending injury during his last season at Notre Dame, and wasn't drafted until the Vikings picked him # 43.

Entering this season, it looked as though it could be two years in a row without a first round TE. During the season, a pair of juniors have emerged, with Clemson's Dwayne Allen, and Geogia's Orson Charles joining Stanford's Coby Fleener as possible 1st round prospects.

This year, the NFL has seen an emergence of what is being labeled the "Mismatch Tightend", lead by New England's dynamic duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, New Orleans' Jimmy Graham, and San Fransisco's Vernon Davis.

Currently, draft Guru Wes Bunting has Charles going to the Broncs with the 25th pick in the first http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Mock-Draft-Version-20.html&page=2, while Rob Rang has Flenner going drafted by the Giants http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfldraftscout-RobRang. Finally, Walterfootball has the G-men taking Allen http://walterfootball.com/draft2012_1.php, while NFL.com's Charles Davis has Allen going to the Browns with the 22nd pick http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts/charles-davis/65030

Will Allen, or the others become a first round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft?

FIRST ROUND TE's SINCE 2000:

2010: Jermaine Gresham

2009: Brandon Pettigrew

2008: Dustin Keller

2007: Greg Olsen

2006: Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis

2005: Heath Miller

2004: Kellen Winslow, Benjamin Watson

2003: Dallas Clark

2002: Jeremy Shockey, Daniel Graham, Jerramy Stevens

2001: Todd Heap

2000: Bubba Franks, Anthony Becht

When examining previous first round TEs, two facts stand out:

First, of the 16 first round TEs drafted since 2000, four came from the University of Miami (and that doesn't count Jimmy Graham).

Second, first round TEs has one of the LOWEST bust rates. Certainly, some of these TEs have had seasons of disappointment, but only Jerramy Stevens could be called a bust. Historically, TE has proved to be one of the safest positions with which to spend a first round pick.

Conversely, many of the best TEs in the NFL were NOT drafted in the first round.

Many consider Rob Gronkowski to be the best TE in the NFL today. Much like Rudolph, Gronkowski was not drafted until the second round due to injury concerns. Gronk missed the entire 2009 season at Arizona, and the first 3 games during the 2008 season. Reports had surfaced Gronkowski was suffering from spinal stenosis, a potentially career-threatening condition.

Jimmy Graham fans could reasonable argue that he is the best TE in the game today. Graham - like Antonio Gates before him - was a college basketball player. He played on the University of Miami basketball team from 2005 to 2009. Graham graduated from Miami in May 2009, but had one year of eligibility left in which he could play football. He finished college with only 17 career receptions, but had such a great performance in the NFL combine that he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2010 draft.

Additionally, the Dallas Cowboy's Jason Witten, and Green Bay Packer's Jermichael Finley were also drafted in the third round. Finley had bypassed his last two seasons of eligibility at the University of Texas.

New England didn't stop with Gronk, two rounds later they drafted Aaron Hernandez (4th round, Florida), who had slid in the 2010 draft, reportedly due to multiple failed drug tests.

The Washington Redskins currently have a pair (for now) of quality TEs in Chris Cooley (3rd round, Utah State) and Fred Davis (USC, 2nd round) as do their neighbors to the north, Baltimore's Ed Dickson (3rd round, Oregon) and Dennis Pitta (4th, BYU).

Tony Moeaki (3rd round), Owen Daniels (4th round), and Zach Miller (2nd round) although not stars, have each proved to be of great value in the later rounds.

In addition to Rudolph, the 2011 draft brought us several WR/TE hybrids, lead by the Ram's Lance Kendricks, and Green Bay's DJ Williams. Trying to find the next Gates/Graham, both the Browns and Broncos drafted former college basketball players - Jordan Cameron, and Julius Thomas respectively.

Poll

Would you spend a first round pick on a tight end in 2012?

Yes, Allen

95 votes

Yes, Fleener

39 votes

yes, Charles

8 votes

yes, more than one

16 votes

no

219 votes

377 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Gronk is simply a hard act to follow

I think standards will have to drop before someone likes a TE in the first again. I’m thinking Eifert next year. Not many TEs really featured in college like they are in the NFL.

Wolf. Wolfgang Wolf

by dbcouver on Jan 30, 2012 3:29 PM EST reply actions

I tried to scout Eifert this year

ND would not throw him the ball.

2012 NYG mock - 1: Janoris Jenkins CB, 2: Kevin Zeitler G, 3: A.J. Jenkins, WR, 4: Neiko Thorpe S, 5: Vick Ballard RB, 6: Rishard Matthews WR, 6: some random LB, 7: BPA

by ct17 on Jan 30, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldnt but somebody will

I like Allen but dont think he has enough all round game to be a 1st round quality player but someone will go for one of the TE because of threat that some of these guys could potentially be.

"The Holy Writ of Gloucester Rugby Club demands: first, that the forwards shall win the ball; second, that the forwards shall keep the ball; and third, the backs shall buy the beer." - Doug Ibbotson

by SteveUK on Jan 30, 2012 3:48 PM EST reply actions

I would if I absolutely needed a TE

But only if that

Success With honor

by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Jan 30, 2012 4:20 PM EST reply actions

Most teams can wait for a TE or have one already

"You play to win the game!"
"There are two ways to deal with pressure. You feel it or you apply it."
"I'm not a loser"
"When you win, nothing hurts."
"I'm the one who's supposed to throw like Vince."

by Empirestatesportfan on Jan 30, 2012 4:58 PM EST reply actions

I think it's a smart move

First, tight end is one of the few positions where you can usually get the first or second prospect near the bottom of the first. If you are at the rear end of the first, why take the 5th best tackle or wide receiver when you have access to better talent?

Second, tight end as a position is becoming more valuable. With the rules becoming more strict on how you can hit a receiver and how soon you can hit the receiver after the catch these 6’6" 260 guys are getting very hard to cover because it’s very hard to make them pay for going over the deep middle without giving up a 15 and a first down.

Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.

by Ougadas on Jan 30, 2012 5:07 PM EST reply actions