2012 Compensatory Draft Pick Predictions

I have again this year decided to try to predict compensatory draft picks to feed my draft obsession. Last year I did rather well, in that I was able to correctly assign picks for players with the exception of Seattle and Baltimore, where a midseason contract renegotiation with Cory Redding that I was not aware of gave Baltimore a pick instead of Seattle receiving a rather high pick from losing Burleson. I was also off by a round for a few picks, most of which I can relate to playing time differential.

I again claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original. I shamelessly used AdamJT13's publicly posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. Unfortunately it looks like he has abandoned his research. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.

2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.

3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

This year was an unusual year in that the new labor contract virtually eliminated RFAs, and does so in the future as well. Also, because of the shortened time before the season, a lot of contracts went unreported, which means that I had to spend a lot of time looking for the information. There remain about a dozen players for which I failed to find information, and this is noted where relevant below.

I awarded 28 normal comp picks. I actually am leaning towards this number being 27, but I wanted to show the possible scenarios below. I am fairly confident in this number, but less confident in their order, because I am not sure how much the amount of playing time alters the placement by salary. Last year it lowered Artis Hicks significantly, but not AJ Feeley, who did not take a snap. I awarded 0 net value picks (value difference between players lost and signed). Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 4-5 additional picks at the end, which according to AdamJT13 follows the order that would be used if there were an eighth round.

I will first list the comp picks awarded and then provide the related team free agent activity at the end. I am not explaining teams that did not get comp picks to save time. But if you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, let me know.

Compensatory Picks Awarded (round - team - player lost)

3 - Oakland - Nnamdi Asomugha

3 - Minnesota - Sidney Rice

3 - Oakland - Zach Miller (possibly a 4)

4 - Green Bay - Cullen Jenkins

4 - Minnesota - Ray Edwards (possibly no pick, see below)

4 - Indianapolis - Clint Session (possibly a 6 for Johnson, see below)

4 - Baltimore - Dawan Landry

4 - Green Bay - Daryn Colledge

4 - Dallas - Stephen Bowen

4 - Oakland - Robert Gallery (possibly a 5 or no pick, see below)

6 - New York Giants - Kevin Boss (possibly a 5)

6 - New York Jets - Shaun Ellis (possibly a 5)

6 - Indianapolis - Charlie Johnson (possibly a 4 for Session, see below)

6 - Cleveland - Eric Wright

6 - New York Jets - Brad Smith

6 - Cleveland - Matt Roth

6 - Atlanta - Michael Koenen (possibly no pick, see below)

7 - New York Jets - Drew Coleman

7 - Carolina - Jeff King (possibly a 6, it's complicated)

7 - Pittsburgh - Matt Spaeth

7 - New York Giants - Steve Smith (possibly no pick, see below)

7 - Green Bay - Brandon Jackson

7 - Indianapolis - Bob Sanders

7 - Cleveland - Lawrence Vickers

7 - Green Bay - Jason Spitz

7 - Pittsburgh - Nick Eason

7 - New York Jets - Braylon Edwards

7 - Cleveland - Jason Trusnik

And the additional picks:

7 - St. Louis

7 - Indianapolis

7 - Minnesota

7 - Tampa Bay

7 - Cleveland (if a pick is lost above)

The predictions above assume that Reggie Kelly, Devin Aromashadu, Steve Weatherford, and Maurice Stovall received minimum salaries. If Stovall received a higher salary, Tampa Bay will get a 7th round selection. I assumed that Gradkowski got a significant enough salary to be included in the calculations - this does not affect Cincinnati, but it would cost Oakland their pick for Gallery. I could not find salary numbers for Floyd Womack or Dimitri Patterson, which would only affect Cleveland, but my predictions should generally be fine unless Patterson made significantly more than Womack. The location of the pick could change - possibly Trusnik is the one cancelled out. I also could not find salary numbers for Turk McBride or Marvin Mitchell, which would only affect New Orleans, and again only if Mitchell made significantly more than McBride. Of all these assumptions in this paragraph, I am fairly confident except for Weatherford. I could see him making enough to knock out the Steve Smith pick [*UPDATE: Weatherford does not qualify, Giants get the pick]. Neither the Jets or Cleveland could benefit much from my wrong assumptions because they already received the maximum four picks. The limit on four compensatory picks cost Green Bay an additional 7th rounder for Korey Hall.

UPDATE 1/10: Now that Sanders does not qualify, if Brandon Siler's contract with KC qualifies, then SD could get a 5th for losing Burnett.

An interesting situation comes into play with Indianapolis' highest pick. It only came to light a few years ago that compensation for 10-year veterans will not exceed a 5th round pick regardless of salary. However, it appears to be unknown whether the salary, or the adjusted 5th round pick, affects how another player is canceled out. If Kerry Collins' contract number is used, it would cancel out Session and result in a 6th round compensation for Charlie Johnson. If the 5th round value is used, it would cancel out Johnson and give Indy a 4th rounder for Session.

Explanations (with contract signed):

Atlanta -

• Lost: Dahl (4 yr $16 million), Koenen (6 yr $19.5 million)
• Signed: Edwards (5 yr $30 million)

Baltimore -

• Lost: McClain (1 yr $1.5 million), Chester (4 yr $16 million), Wilson (3 yr $13.5 million), Landry (5 yr $27.5 million)
• Signed: Leach (3 yr $11 million), Williams (2 yr $2.6 million), Pollard (2 yr $2.75 million)

Carolina -

• Lost: Moore (2 yr $5 million), King (3 yr $6 million), Marshall (1 yr $3.5 million)
• Signed: Edwards (3 yr $8.25 million), Mare (4 yr $12 million)

Cleveland -

• Lost: Womack (?), Vickers (2 yr $3 million), Stuckey (2 yr $3.5 million), Roth (1 yr $3 million), Trusnik (2 yr $2 million), Wright (1 yr $3.5 million), Elam (1 yr $2.5 million)
• Signed: Jackson (2 yr $4.5 million), Patterson(?), Young (3 yr $6 million)

Dallas -

• Lost: Hurd (3 yr $5.15 million), Bowen (5 yr $27.5 million)
• Signed: Elam (1 yr $2.5 million)

Green Bay -

• Lost: Colledge (5 yr $27.5 million), Spitz (3 yr $5.25 million), Hall (2 yr $2 million), Jackson (2 yr $4.5 million), Jenkins (5 yr $30.4 million)
• Signed: None

Indianapolis -

• Lost: Session (5 yr $29 million), Johnson (3 yr $10.5 million), Sanders (1 yr $2 million)
• Signed: Collins (2 yr $14 million)

Minnesota -

• Lost: Jackson (2 yr $8 million), Rice (5 yr $41 million), Edwards (5 yr $30 million)
• Signed: Johnson (3 yr $10.5 million), Ayodele (3 yr $9 million)

New York Giants -

• Lost: Smith (1 yr $2.2 million), Boss (4 yr $16 million), Cofield (6 yr $36 million)
• Signed: Baas (5 yr $27.5 million), Weatherford (?)

New York Jets -

• Lost: Edwards (1 yr $1 million), Smith (4 yr $15 million), Ellis (1 yr $4 million), Coleman (3 yr $7.4 million), Weatherford (?)
• Signed: None

Oakland -

• Lost: Gradkowski (?), Gallery (3 yr $15 million), Miller (5 yr $34 million), Howard (2 yr $6.5 million), Asomugha (5 yr $60 million)
• Signed: Heyer (1 yr $1.7 million), Boss (4 yr $16 million)

Pittsburgh -

• Lost: Spaeth (3 yr $6 million), Eason (2 yr $2 million)
• Signed: None

Other Random Comments:

Indy fans should not only be worried about their 4th round pick. Collins' cap number for 2012 is $11.25 million. He needs to be disposed of properly.

If San Francisco fans are disappointed in Braylon Edwards now, you should know that signing him cost you a 4th round pick for losing Baas.

Minnesota fans should be thanking St. Louis. That one year deal for $1.25 they gave Leber saved the comp pick for losing Edwards, a 4th.

Neither Kirk Morrison, Tommy Thigpen, or Brad Smith contributed much for Buffalo. But signing two of them cost the Bills a 3rd rounder for losing Posluszny.

I know the Cincinnati fans wanted their 3rd for Joseph. But he was the only qualifying free agent you lost. Plenty were signed in return, including Lawson, Howard, Gronkowski, and Scaife.

LATE ADDITION:

Just realized I should give an approximation of the annual salary ranges of picks.

3 - $6.5/$7 million and greater

4 - $5 to $6.5/$7 million

5 - $4 to $5 million

6 - $2.5/2.75 to $4 million

7 - $1 to $2.5/2.75 million

If you think I made any errors or omissions, please let me know.