NFL Draft Q&A with NFLMocks.com: Change of Colts' defense will affect draft plans

by Dan Kadar on Feb 13, 2012 9:01 AM EST in 2012 NFL Draft

Since during the college football season, NFLMocks.com lead editor Jesse Bartolis and I have been tossing questions at each other. This week, he answers my questions.

1. Of the teams who have changed philosophies on defense, which do you think has to use the draft to make the new scheme work?

I think the team right now that has the worst fit for the new schemes they are going to run is the Indianapolis Colts. Assuming they are going to move to a 34 they have a lot of players who need to make conversions. Can Dwight Freeney play 34 OLB, do they have anyone who can play 34 DE? They've preferred smaller, faster players up front, but if they play a lot of 34 that's not going to work. Even their cornerbacks were "system" type cornerbacks. I think they have a lot of work to do in the next two off-seasons.

2. What players need to have a big Scouting Combine and why?

For this question I'll stick with the potential first round prospects and I'm going to stick with the drills. Obviously any player with character concerns (Jenkins for one) has to do well with interviews, but we don't get access to the interviews. And it's always better for OL and DL to have long arms so we'll assume that's part of the answer as well.

Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama

There are a lot of questions about whether or not Donta Hightower has the athletic ability to play 43 ILB and whether or not he can play outside linebacker in some 43 systems. He has legitimate questions about his speed and a slow time could really hurt him. Last year Akeem Ayers was considered a first round prospect by many leading up to the combine and ran really slow and hurt himself. Hightower could also benefit from looking more fluid in drills than the reputation that proceeds him.

Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

He has put out a lot of good tape this year, but I think he has to do two things: first he has to measure in around 5'10. Right now that's his listed size, but if he comes in under 5'10 I think that could hurt his stock a bit. He would also benefit from running as fast and people think.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

The only question about Jefferey seems to be his straight-line speed. He has terrific size, if he runs a lot faster than people are expecting his stock could rise again.

Whitney Mercilus, DL, Illinois

This might just be me. I don't think he has enough athleticism to, play in a 34 defense. If he can prove me wrong and looks athletic and fluid maybe there are 34 teams who now consider him in the first round which would really help. If I am right he might not go in the first round a tall.

Vontaze Burfict, LB, ASU

Burfict has to be as fast and as athletic as most of us think he is. He really just had some terrible moments in during the season even getting benched towards the end of the season. Burfict looks out of shape or comes off as less athletic than people have claimed braced with his penchant for dumb plays on the field he could see his stock take plummet.

3. Keeping on the Combine talk, should Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin II throw there?

I would advise them not to if I was in a position to do so. There is absolutely no upside for Luck to be throwing at the combine. He has already locked up the #1 spot. Why throw? Maybe Griffin III wants to try and wow a fan base and put pressure on the General manager of a team to trade up and make him the second pick, or try to surpass Luck as the first pick, but he'd probably be better off just waiting until Baylor's pro-day (conveniently schedule the same day as Luck's Pro day) to t hrow because I don't think either player is going to change any minds with an impressive throwing display. What's more important for Griffin III is to ace the medicals.

4. Notorious for making trades, what do you expect the Patriots to do with their first two first-round picks?

Maybe it's just my own "in the moment" thinking creeping in, but at some point they have to relaize Brady's window is closing and cash in their chips right?

I could see them moving up for a WR if they can't find one in free agency, but they will probably do the same thing they do every year. Use one first round pick and trade back and stock pile second round picks. The Pats real problem has been that they aren't hitting any home runs with their early round picks.

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New England will...

…use the 27th pick to grab either DT/DE Fletcher Cox or DE/OLB Nick Perry before Green Bay has a chance. I see them going for C Peter Konz or WR Mohamed Sanu otherwise, followed by Chase Minnifield. The Pats need to get younger at DT/DE and WR, but they could also use a starting-calibre Center and competition for starting the DE/OLB roles.

With the 31st pick they’ll try to trade back into 2013. That’s important to them. BB will also try to get a 2nd or 3rd rounder for 2012. Last year, Pats traded 28th overall to NO for their 2012 1st rounder and 2011 2nd rounder; I could see that play out again, especially with 31st looking like the best spot to lockup Dwayne Allen. I’d be shocked if they used both 1st rounders and both 2nd rounders.

Pats will I think look for 2 WRs in the draft and 1-2 in FA.

It is what it is

by Middlesex on Feb 13, 2012 9:31 AM EST reply actions

Don't presume you're going to see a whole lot of 3-4 from the Colts next year.

While Pagano’s known for the 3-4 schemes he’s run at Baltimore, he’s on record as talking about roster and personnel dictating scheme, plus he also noted that he’s run 4-3s and 4-2-5 type setups in the past. On top of that, he’s talked about the number of 4-3 looks the Ravens ran this year.

Also: GM Grigson noted that the new DC, Greg Manusky, was “versatile within the scheme, 3-4, 4-3.” He went on to say “It’s part of the philosophy of not trying to put a square peg into a round hole.”

And last: Let’s also keep in mind that the new D-Line coach is Gary Emanuel, a coach on a 4-3 Purdue defense.

Is this to say that Indy won’t have any 3-4 looks at all? No, it won’t be that absolute. Rather, it’s merely to say that people should not presume that there will be a sudden shift, and to understand that there are almost certainly going to be a lot fewer non 4-3 looks than what everybody seems to be thinking. At best, you’ll see a hybrid defense, and I wouldn’t say that it’s impossible that there won’t be any shift at all. The coaches most responsible for the defensive front 7 are capable of handling a 4-3 with one of them (head coach Pagano) running more 4-3 looks than anyone seems to be giving him credit for, and he plus the GM have been saying over and over that personnel is the more important consideration than scheme. With a mind blowing DE (Freeney) and a damn, damn good one (Mathis) having played their careers with their hands down, it’d take a spectacularly inflexible set of coaches to change that.

Everybody seems to be excited about a sea-change in defensive philosophy, but those folks had better take a look at the situation and what Pagano and Grigson have been saying before they set that in stone. I don’t deny that a change will happen eventually and gradually, but I also don’t see it starting immediately, or even for the near future. As long as they’ve got Freeney and another excellent pass rushing end like Mathis, they actually shouldn’t change. And I think everyone concerned on the Colts staff is intelligent enough to see that.

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Then they came for the nerds, and I did not speak out because D&D IS A RESPECTABLE GAME WITH A LARGE PLAYERBASE OK MOM???
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"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

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by E.M.H. on Feb 13, 2012 9:48 AM EST reply actions

What!?!? Take a look at the overall picture and not jump to conclusions!?!?! INCONCEIVABLE!

by TrueBlue87 on Feb 13, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

Oh crap, I forgot: We're all fans here! Of sports teams.

Dammit!

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"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Feb 13, 2012 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

Agree they'll run 43 looks

But I think they’ll also transition to the 34 defense over the next two years, and that he prefers to run a 34 defense.

Even if they stay with a 43 defense I expect them to move away from the strict Tampa 2 principles they’ve used lately.

I expect them to get bigger up front and at linebacker. I also think their corerbacks won’t be guys who excel in zone only.

Whether they stick with a 43 or 34 I expect a big overhaul of their defensive system, one that I think hurt the Colts more than once in the playoffs

"I have never in my life learned anything from any man who agreed with me." Dudley Field Malone

Editor at nflmocks.com, contributor a newyork.sbnation.com

by Jesse Bartolis on Feb 13, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

I think the tight ends need to do well

there is alot of debate as to which is the best ( Dwayne Allen, Orson Charles, and Coby Fleener) and for one of them to be selected in the first round, someone needs to separate themself.

by durst on Feb 13, 2012 10:10 AM EST reply actions

Man, I'd love to see either Allen or Fleener get picked by the Colts.Tamme is at best just serviceable, and Clark won't be around forever.

I think everyone will see Allen taken at the bottom of the first round, though, so I don’t see him remaining available for Indy. Fleener seems to be the one with the best shot at being there for Indy.

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Feb 13, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

getting both Luck and Fleener would be interesting, although I don't know if you can ignore the defense until the 3rd

by durst on Feb 13, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that's a good point.

Relatively speaking, TE is a luxury when compared to defensive secondary. Clark may not be around forever, and Tamme may merely be serviceable, but at least both are present and have contributed. Whereas the secondary has been makeshift in the SS position since Sanders left. Bullitt’s good, but injury prone and nowhere near being the elite guy that Bobzilla was. And cornerback… well, I’ve maintained that the issue with pass coverage was coaching the DBs to give huge cushions, but it’s definitely arguable that Indy’s real defensive weakness was at cornerback and could use new personnel.

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Feb 13, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, and: Yes, I agree, they need to show something during the combine in order to get a first round grade.

Otherwise, people will continue to see them as good values for the second round, but not the first.

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Feb 13, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

Dan listed five players who need to have a big combine (in order to maintain 1st round status)

I would offer that the ones who REALLY need a great combine are the ones who fell during the college season (either due to injuries or poor performance) and may be able to rehabilitate their stock with a great combine.

1. Jeff Fuller (is he really a 5th rounder?)
2. Dwight Jones (can a great combine make up for poor senior bowl week?)
3. Marcus Forston
4. Andrew Datko
5. Jared Crick
6. Travis Lewis (didn’t he enter the NFL two years ago? LOL)

by durst on Feb 13, 2012 10:52 AM EST reply actions

Question is, can Dwight Jones even rise back into the second round with a great combine performance?

I see him pegged as 3rd to 4th wherever I look.

--
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Feb 13, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

Your signature is ridiculously long.

Mocking the Draft: Talking NFL Draft all year.

by Dan Kadar on Feb 13, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

That's what she... oh, wait. My signature...

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"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Feb 13, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

exactly, these six have already fallen....they NEED a great combine to recover, at least some of their status

not saying any of them are going to be first rounders, although D. Jones is the most likely, but the others are just fighting to get back into the second, some thing I feel all six have a chance to accomplish is healthy

by durst on Feb 13, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions