Tale of the Tape: Justin Blackmon vs Stanford
by UkRedskin on Feb 20, 2012 2:24 PM EST
in 2012 NFL Draft
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PrintJustin Blackmon is widely considered the top wide receiver in this years draft class. He had an brilliant season, putting up 121 receptions for 1522 yards and 18 touchdowns. Amazingly, his stats actually regressed from his 2010 season where he caught 111 passes for 1782 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Blackmon looks destined to be selected in the top ten, or quite possibly even in the top five picks of the draft in April. Now I personally don't believe he should be a top five or top ten pick. This isn't to say he's a great talent, but I don't believe a wide receiver should be taken in the top five unless they have the complete package at wide receiver. If I'm taking a receiver in the top five, I want a guy that has the potential to be special a la Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson; a guy that can out jump a defender to go up and get the ball or can just as easily run past his defender. Justin Blackmon doesn't posses elite speed (projected 4.5 40 time) or the height (Blackmon is 6'1") to out-jump everyone he comes up against.
Again, this isn't to say he can't be a great receiver, just that I'm not sure he's worthy of a top five or top ten pick. Lets have a look how he played in the Fiesta Bowl.
Blackmon runs a quick inside route. What I like about this play is that he shields the ball from the defender with his body and then catches the ball with his hands.
He secures the ball despite the attempt from the defender to knock it loose. He then uses his advantageous body position to shrug off the defender and break into the open field. He runs away from the defense and takes it all the way for a touchdown.
Here's another very similar play.
Like the last play, he positions himself so that his body shields the ball from the defender while he secures the catch.
He manages to break the initial tackle attempt before the second defender gets an arm wrapped around him.
Blackmon gets turned around, but somehow manages to keep his balance and stay on his feet. He once again breaks free and gets an extra ten yards before he's brought down.
That catch put them in the red zone, where Blackmon saw double coverage.
Blackmon runs in between the two defenders and manages to gain a bit of separation coming out of his break.
Quarterback Brandon Weeden throws a very catchable ball. I believe Blackmon goes at the ball with his hands the wrong way around. Receivers will have a way they prefer to catch the ball, but from my perspective, I feel that he should have his left hand on top and his right hand supporting underneath. That way the nose of the ball would be caught between thumb and fore finger while the rest of the hand naturally wraps round the ball. The way Blackmon attempts to catch this pass means he has to pull the ball into his body to catch it.
The defender manages to disrupt the process of Blackmon bringing the ball back into his body and the ball comes loose. Luckily for Blackmon, the drop didn't have an impact on the outcome of the game.
Later in the game, Blackmon showed how well he can run routes to manipulate the defense and get himself open.
Blackmon takes a dummy step to the outside which gets the corner to shift his weight in that directions. As soon as this happens, Blackmon cuts back inside and runs past him.
Having easily gotten past the corner, the safety is forced to come over the top to help cover. Blackmon plants his foot in the ground to cut back inside.
Blackmon cuts back against the momentum of the safety. You can see as Blackmon comes back across the middle, the safeties feet get crossed as he attempts to stop and change direction.
Blackmon makes a good adjustment to come back to the ball as it's thrown slightly behind him. He catches it with his hands instead of with his body and has lots of space and time to turn and run into the end zone for a touchdown.
This last play shows Blackmon's ability to gain more yards after the catch.
Blackmon runs a slant route and gets in front of the defender. Like he did on the dropped touchdown pass, he gets his hands the wrong way around, but this time he manages to catch the ball.
He breaks the arm tackle of the initial defender, managing to keep his balance before the next defender can get to him.
He gets a good stiff arm on the defender and gets past him to pick up as many yards as he possibly can.
He eventually is brought down from behind, but he had already managed to get a first down and crossed midfield into the Stanford half of the field.
Blackmon had a huge performances in one of the biggest games he played in college. His stat line read eight receptions for 186 yards and three touchdowns. What are your thoughts on Justin Blackmon? Is he worthy of a top five pick? Is he even the best receiver in this class?
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I think he will be great in the NFL
He reminds me so much of TO minus the headache. I also think he has better hands and plucking ability than TO
I wanna be the very best, like no one ever was
He's got a much better rep than TO in terms of personality
but TO had some pretty great build-up speed when he was in his prime, something I think Blackmon lacks.
I like Blackmon's game
but he ain’t the top guy in this class. Blackmon excels at physically dominating DB’s, something he’ll still be able to do sometimes at the NFL level, but not to the degree he did it in college. Since he lacks the vertical explosiveness and some of the size of guys like Fitz and Mike Irvin, he’ll make his money by running great routes. He’s already catches and breaks tackles like a pro. I’d compare him more to Anquan Boldin, a valuable move-the-chains kinda guy but a bit of a luxury pick.
I disagree with the hands placement fundamentally for a WR turning toward a ball.
If the ball is coming over the top, maybe, but when it’s coming on a bead it has to be inside hand up. That’s the way receivers are taught from early on.
Wolf. Wolfgang Wolf
Just noticed the typo I had there.
In the picture, his right hand is on the top, and his left had is underneath whereas it should be the other way round (which is what I originally meant to type, and have now fixed).
Much is made of Blackmon's height 6"1
but not of his weight, which is about 220-230lbs. You don’t need to be tall if you’re wide enough to get position on the DB.
Blackmon reminds me of a Dez Bryant (quick twitch athlete) and Hakeem Nicks (large ass, gigantic hands, wide body and deceptive breakaway speed) combo, which basically any team in remote need of a WR would be ignorant to pass on. Not only is he worthy of a top 5 pick, but he’s a #1 overall pick worthy player. He no doubt can outjump anyone, just cuz he can.
Blackmon can run all the routes, make all the catches and has that nose for the end zone only a rare few have.
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He's listed in most places at 215
rather than the 220-230 lbs that you’re suggesting. Will definitely be interested what he weights at the combine.
215, 220, 250
doesn’t matter, he’s a big dude. He’s not 190lbs. To just say he’s not a big WR due to his height is asinine. He’s bigger then any DB he’ll go up against, that’s for damn sure.
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No way
Blackmon just doesn’t have the length or deep speed of those two guys you mentioned, though he’s got the same or better strength at the catch point.
I wouldn’t spend a top five pick on anyone short of Calvin/Andre Johnson – a WR that’s dominant in every phase of the game. Blackmon is probably gonna be an all-pro if he stays healthy and works hard, but he’s just not in that top-most tier.
the reason why I mentioned those two is cuz he matches them
he’s got Bryant’s speed and raw power and Hakeem’s everything else. THose two are top 5 picks for me, so a combo of both sure as shit would be a top 5 pick as well. He’s got plenty of deep speed and length.
There’s no mold to a top WR. Its only if you do it. Blackmon’s done everything in college to point to that.
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The combine will give us some solid measurables to look at
for comparison’s sake. And I agree that WR1’s come in all shapes and sizes, but they also come in nearly every round of the draft. When you’re looking at the top five picks, there has to be a lot of scarcity there (QB, LT, pass rusher, and now shutdown CB). I just don’t think that’s the case with WRs of Blackmon’s type.
I’d take Kendall Wright over Blackmon, and I think Blackmon and Michael Floyd are about equal, all things considered. OKST’s system had DB’s playing 8-10yds off the LOS, and Blackmon caught a lot of 8yd curl routes and slants against off-man. I’m not knocking the kid, like I said I think he’ll be a very good WR in the pro’s, but he’s not the world-beater people are making him out to be.
you'd take Wright over Blackmon?
welp…wow. I wouldn’t take Wright before the 4th round, so I guess we’ll see.
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really?
dude as Wright over Blackmon and this is the one you want?
Anywho, small, not as fast as made out to be, product of elite QB, questionable route running.
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Well, I've seen other people say Wright over Blackmon
Not seen anyone say Wright is a 4th rounder.
Yes he’s small, but there are a lot of good receivers of similar height.
Some people may make out that he will run a 4.1 40 or something, he may ‘only’ run a 4.3/4.4 but that’s still pretty fast.
Blackmon had Brandon Weeden who’s not exactly the worst QB in the world.
As for the questionable route running, that’s your opinion I guess. Could his route running improve? Absolutely, every receiver coming out of college can and needs to improve route running. Is it bad? Not in my opinion. I really like Wright, I think you could put him outside, move him into the slot, whatever. He’s good enough (in my opinion) to get open against NFL defenders and is quick enough to force teams to get help over the top of him.
I've never seen anyone say Wright's better then Blackmon
or at least anyone that wasn’t just saying it just to say it.
Joe Adams is no worse then Wright. He’s a 3-4th round guy.
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Josh Norris on twitter (@JoshNorris) has Wright as the top WR in the class and Floyd as 2nd over Blackmon. He was an intern for an NFL team scouting department for last year’s draft.
for who, the Rams?
obviously he hasn’t made it for a reason. Reading his stuff, it appears he’s awfully full of shit.
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Joe Adams does not have Wright's ball skills
Wright is no smaller (5’10", 190) than Steve Smith (Panthers), who I think we can agree was undervalued as a 3rd round pick. Like you said, there’s no physical template for WR1’s.
Look at Wright’s production late in the year (last 4 games), when teams were explicitly trying to stop Baylor from throwing downfield: 28 catches, 601yds, 4TD. He did this running the whole route tree; in fact, his short area quickness/elusiveness was a real benefit on shorter routes and screens. He’s a much more complete receiver than a straight burner like Adams or DeSean Jackson.
Disagree
I will give you that he projects similarly to Nicks, but Bryant he is not. Dez Bryant is a physical freak and somewhat of a project at WR. He is a bit taller but far more athletic than Blackmon, making his upside much higher. They might run similar times in the 40, but Bryant is just faster and can elevate better. Blackmon is more polished in his route tree, but he will never be able to match Bryant’s athleticism. Aside from build and alma mater, these two really don’t have much in common.
Blackmon's athleticism is no doubt on par with Bryant
and I don’t think people realize how well Blackmon can elevate. He can reach a point as high as anyone, including players 3-6 inches taller then him.
They have a lot in common. Just cuz they played for OK State has nothing to do with it, this comparison is still there regardless.
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by Rorschach44 on Feb 20, 2012 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
Blackmon is athletic no doubt
But he is just not on par with Bryant. Bryant’s vertical leap is any where from 3-6 inches higher than Blackmon, depending on which measurements you take. Also, Bryant is dynamic in the open field and returned two punts for TDs his rookie season, but has been limited in punt returning duties this past year because of injury concerns. I am pretty sure Blackmon won’t be returning punts in the NFL.
Like I said before, the Nicks comp. is fair and I think Blackmon has similar upside. But Bryant has the upside of Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, who you referenced earlier. He is not as tall as those two, but he is incredibly athletic and if he can improve his route running, Bryant could top 5 WR in this league.
by shastamasta on Feb 20, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
punt returns doesn't say how athletic you are
actually it says how dumb your team is, considering Bryant always gets hurt on punt returns.
Blackmon has almost a 40 inch vertical. Its funny how no one even cares to look at this , its not everything and its ESPN, but it does say that he’s more athletic then certain people want to believe.
Hakeem Nicks is right up there with Johnson and Fitzgerald anyway, so if that’s the comparison you feel like letting go through, he’s up there.
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SportScience: neither sport nor science
That video you posted listed J’s vertical as 33", but that’s neither here nor there. The guy is a helluva athlete and I don’t think anyone’s disputing that; he adjust fantastically to bad passes, and can definitely go up and get the football.
The question with Blackmon is can he push the top of the coverage? Does he mandate safety help over the top (even against good cover corners)? This isn’t just about track speed, but acceleration and short-area quickness. IMO, based on the games I’ve seen, most good NFL DB’s will be able to run with him in man coverage, though he’ll win his share of jump balls. Like I said, a guy with Blackmon’s skills is very valuable but when you’re talking top 5 overall there are too many guys who can approximate Blackmon’s value at a lower cost.
so a 6"1 guy able to get to a ball 2 inches higher then a 6"5 guy
and the 6"5 guy is Plaxico? Its not the ideo of science, its the idea that he can out leap Plaxico.
And I’ve seen plenty of times where Blackmon blows the top off the coverage. He does it all the time actually. Maybe the idea is that there’s terrible QBs on the teams in the top 5, so they’d be scared to trust a guy like Blackmon with the ball…I dunno.
But he’s a top 5 WR no doubt on the same par as AJ Green, Julio Jones, etc.
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by Rorschach44 on Feb 21, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Nicks is not up there with Fitz and Johnson (Andre/Calvin)
Those are the 3 top WRs in this league with an unmatched combination of size, speed, strength, body and ball control. They are in a tier by themselves. Nicks is not quite on that level. He is still one of the best, so comparing Blackmon to him is not a slight.
Dez Bryant has that top tier upside. He is like a shorter Calvin Johnson. Now he has yet to put it all together, but we have seen flashes. And he was returning punts because he was the most dynamic player on his team and gives him team the best chance on punt returns. I agree it is risky but you can’t fault the Cowboys for wanting to use a talent like Bryant in as many ways as possible.
Like someone said earlier, there is no standard size/speed for a WR1 in this league. But when it comes to athleticism, there are measureables and standards to use. They are a great indicator of whether that WR has the ability to stretch the field or be a possession WR. And in terms of athleticism, Blackmon does not have the same upside as Bryant, let alone the top 3.
by shastamasta on Feb 21, 2012 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure what you're seeing
Blackmon showed the exact sort of athleticism that Bryant did. Better body control, less of a nipplehead. Yeap, top 5.
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by Rorschach44 on Feb 21, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
I am seeing an unpolished Hakeem Nicks
Blackmon has dominated smaller college DBs by using his strength and wide body. Bryant, though not consistently yet, has dominated NFL DBs and special teams players with sheer athleticism. I am excited to see what Blackmon does next year, though it will largely depend on which team drafts him, as he could become a safety blanket for a young QB, or he could become a field stretching WR2.
can't really compare or say that one WR has dominated college or pros
and the other hasn’t, since one is in the pros and the other is not.
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Top 5 or 10?
What’s always missing from these conversations is who is better. Weak draft at the top, no elite pass rushers. Don’t tell me Blackmon is a 15 until you can justify why Nick Perry is top 10 in his place.
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by ct17 on Feb 20, 2012 3:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
That's true.
That’s why he will most likely end up being a top 10 pick. But I’ve seen things claiming he’s better than Jones or Green last year, which simply isn’t the case. If those two were in this class, they’d both go before him.
Yep.
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by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Feb 20, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think he's better than Jones
I would put Green a notch above, but not much
I wanna be the very best, like no one ever was
Jones wasnt even a top 15 pick until he blew up the combine
He;s not bad, but i think Blackmon is better overall
I wanna be the very best, like no one ever was
Scarcity
NFL teams have a much better track record of drafting WR1’s in the later rounds and developing them into productive starters. This has not been the case with positions like LT, QB, and pass rusher (esp. 4-3 DE). It’s possible that the new rookie wage scale encourages teams to draft more for need in the first 15 picks, but I doubt we’ll see that sort of paradigm shift this year.
I'm with you on this...
He may not be top 5 elite, but you would be hard pressed to name 15 guys in this draft who could have a bigger impact on a team. I say don’t get so caught up in measurables with Blackmon because he is good several things needed to dominate his position. Body positioning and the ability to shed tacklers is a big deal. He’s not falling out of the top 10 and it would be sweet if he falls to the Panthers.
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by carolinapillpusher on Feb 20, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
I think the problem with the Fiesta Bowl is Stanford has no defensive backs at all
So congratulations to Blackmon for a great performance.
I wonder what your review (which they are excellent by the way) would be if you looked at his performance vs Iowa State where Leonard Johnson did one heck of a job on him.
I think that performance is what type of play you will see from him in the NFL because many of the CBs in the NFL are like Johnson.
I think that Blackmon is definitely one of the top WRs in this draft in not the top WR. My Vikings need one badly but I would not take him top 5. He needs to run in the low 4.4s for me to justify that pick. I just think that there are too many WRs in the draft with similar physical characteristics that can be had later in the draft.
Now that can prove to be a big mistake over time but one that could be overcome.
I've been told about the Iowa State game
But I’m yet to find any footage of it, or I would review it.
Hey UK
tell Kevin and them to reinstate me…thanks
Vikes do need a WR
but they need a LT worse. Ideally STL trades down and Kalil falls into their lap, but being stuck with a choice between Reiff or Jonathan Martin isn’t too bad.
They should target a guy like Marvin Jones in the 2nd/3rdRd to fill their WR spot.
I really like Marvin Jones too.
I’ve simulated him lasting past the 3rd. Do you think he’ll go that early?
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by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Feb 20, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Depends
I think he’ll test out very well overall at the combine. I’ve only seen one game of his, and he was used in their offense as a safety valve usually because he’s a reliable hands catcher and adjusts well to poorly-thrown balls. From the chatter I heard during the Senior Bowl he flashed some good skills down the field as well, and if that stuff translates to the combine/pro days or if scouts find more of it on tape I think he’ll rise.
Once you get past the top 3 guys this WR class is pretty muddled. A lot of underclassmen and some guys with skills that played in bad offenses. We’ll see how it shakes out.
I watched a few Cal games last season, but didn't focus on him.
I guess his hands are the least of his worries.
I just don’t understand why he wasn’t more prolific in college. Reports out of the Senior Bowl said he had good agility with superior burst out of his cuts. He’s fast and routinely separated. He’s got 10-inch hands and the wing span of someone who’s 6’3.
I don’t understand why there so much inefficiency surrounding the rating of this kid. I guess it’s all about production.
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by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Feb 21, 2012 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
I think scouts are still sorting out these early/mid round guys
and WR productions is tough to separate from QB quality/overall health of the offense. Cal’s QB Zach Maynard was a transfer from Buffalo and had a better rapport with his brother, WR Keenan Allen. Also Maynard kind of stunk overall, very much a single-read and scramble QB. Although production is definitely a plus, it’s difficult to get a sense of a WR’s ability to get open without watching the all-22.
One guy whose stock I think will drop as the process goes on is Mohammed Sanu. Tons of production, but poor short-area quicks. Will have a hard time getting open at the next level.
I agree on Sanu.
I can’t believe some mocks have him going in the first round. He won’t be able to separate in the NFL.
That’s what I find so interesting about the ongoing discussion of receivers. Many characterize this draft class as being top heavy with a huge divide between the elite prospects and those who are merely good.
I disagree with this assessment and believe the continuum of talent in the receiver group is more uniform. Marvin Jones exemplifies this. How people are rating Marvin Jones below Sanu confuses me and supports your statement above that it’s difficult to tease out a wide receiver’s contribution from the scheme and their quarterback’s play.
I expect to see the receivers increasingly bunched together as the draft approaches. Dwight Jones’ fall is the first of many. Shine the spotlight on these guys and it becomes clear no one stands apart.
One exception might be Michael Floyd. I hate Notre Dame with a passion, so this has been difficult for me to admit, but I’m starting to think he might be the only special receiver in this group. I’m still trying to assess his quickness and agility, but his hands are incredible. And I’m still not convinced that we’ve scratched the surface with him. Anyway, I’m rambling…
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by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Feb 21, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
If Floyd has a good combine
I could see him rising up to the top 15. And by good combine I mean running well AND knocking some team interviews out of the park. I think the main thing holding him back is attitude/commitment concerns; physically he’s a very well-rounded WR with a track record of production despite tons of attention from the defense and rather shaky QB play.
I think everyone knows were I stand on Blackmon
overrated-product of the combination of mature QB and excellent offensive system, but still a first round pick? = of coarse
His ceiling would be Reggie Wayne or Roddy White (thats pretty good) top 15 = yes
He may end up with similar stats, but he will never beat the top CBs or double teams like Fitz, Calvin, Andre J. top 5 = no.
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