What is the trade value of Darren McFadden?

by durst on Feb 3, 2012 4:18 PM EST

Oakland Raider Beat writer Steve Corkran suggested last week that McFadden could be dangled as a trade chip for new GM Reggie McKenzie. - per Rotoworld.com

This after, ESPN's John Clayton suggests the Raiders will have to decide whether to re-sign free agent Michael Bush or trade McFadden this offseason.

McFadden was considered a bust, at least until his breakout 2010 season, when he had over 1600 yards combined rushing and receiving.

In early 2011, he was perhaps the best RB in the league (along with McCoy) until once, again he got injured.

So the question is, what is Darren McFadden's trade value?

Certainly we have seen a decline in value of running backs in the draft.

Trades in the NFL are rare. It seems like a distant memory since the Champ Bailey - Clinton Portis deal, and the Emmitt Smith trade IS a distant memory!

Despite the injuries, I still would give a 2nd round pick. (something I am sure Reggie McKenzie would love since currently the Raiders only have a 5th and 6th round pick)

First round: Traded to Bengals (Carson Palmer)

Second round: Traded to Patriots (Joseph Barksdale and Taiwan Jones)

Third round: Used in 2011 supplemental draft (Terrelle Pryor)

Fourth round: Traded to Redskins (Jason Campbell)

Seventh round: Traded to Seahawks (Aaron Curry)

Poll

What is McFadden's value?

1st round

28 votes

2nd round

38 votes

3rd round

36 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

A 2nd round pick

If he could show that he can stay healthy a full season, then maybe a first. He’s no doubt a very, very talent RB but his running style unfortunately lends itself to injury. In fact, I might have trouble convincing myself (if I were a GM) to even send a 2nd rounder for him. You can find RBs in the later rounds of the draft these days, most of them without serious injury concerns.

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by browne14 on Feb 3, 2012 4:33 PM EST reply actions

+1 Agree I had the same Answer similar to yours as well

by Touhue Cha on Feb 3, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

a 3rd round pick

that’s conditional on performance. he has the skills but he is more injured the not. it’s a risk for any club. I’d say a definite 3rd with conditionals based on playing time and performance.

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by Talon Talent on Feb 3, 2012 5:25 PM EST reply actions

Agreed here

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by BAMFSpecialOps on Feb 3, 2012 6:09 PM EST up reply actions

1st round pick

he was a top 5 pick you dont go and turn around and trade him for a third or second round pick no matter how injury prone he is. and when hes healthy he is a top 5 running back in the league

Cold Blooded

by Jaggaholic82 on Feb 3, 2012 6:09 PM EST reply actions

who would take him for a 1st round pick though knowing he's injury prone

To the Raiders, he could be valued as a 1st round pick kind of player (and I think his abilities would say that is true), but his inability to be healthy means his value has to go down. The backup who plays every down decently usually is more valuable than the star who plays only a couple of games a year. It reminds me of Greg Oden in a sense, who is truly not a terrible player, but can’t stay healthy to save his life

by vitzeng on Feb 3, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

no darren mcfadden is a great player when he plays oden is just average

you cant compare their value. if you have a top 5 talent at a position(which he is) you arent going to give it away for a player that will probably be a decent to above average player(2nd or 3rd round pick)

Cold Blooded

by Jaggaholic82 on Feb 3, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

when he plays....

key words right there

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by Ee Oulo on Feb 4, 2012 3:02 AM EST up reply actions

1st round pick...Yea Right

Most teams dont even spend a 1st round pick on RB’s in the draft, and teams arent going to give up a 1st round pick for a RB that has been injury prone…No way a team gives up a first for him.

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by EcERyda69 on Feb 4, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions

Agree

He’s missed 19 games in his career. Why would anyone in their right mind want to waste giving the Raiders a #1 pick for an injury-prone player?

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by Black&GoldTrain on Feb 4, 2012 2:16 AM EST up reply actions

The Raiders trade their 2014 #1 for McFadden?

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by BAMFSpecialOps on Feb 4, 2012 7:07 AM EST up reply actions

Reggie Bush got traded for Jonathon Amaya. Top 5 picks can be traded for much less than a third or second rounder.

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by Alex Swift on Feb 4, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

Well he's not disgruntled

And Lynch netted the Bills a 4th in last years draft, and a 5th or a 6th in this years. McFadden is more talented. So I’d offer a 3rd this year, and a conditional 5th or 6th next season.

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by mob16151 on Feb 3, 2012 6:53 PM EST reply actions

McFadden is a top 5 back when healthy

Lynch has never been a top 5 back, wasn’t playing too well, and was having off the field issues in Buffalo when he was traded

by Odekerk on Feb 3, 2012 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

Lynch was a top 1 back for most of this season

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by Rorschach44 on Feb 3, 2012 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

You're joking, right?

He had a pretty good year. I guess you could make a case for him having a top 5 overall season (though I wouldn’t put him top 5), but he hasn’t been anywhere close to the best.

by Odekerk on Feb 3, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

no, are you?

this year for at least half the season Lynch was the best back in the game. Its the biggest reason the Seachicks were such a pain in the ass to play.

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by Rorschach44 on Feb 4, 2012 9:42 AM EST up reply actions

Haha... no

McCoy, Foster, ADP, MJD, Rice

Then there are guys like Gore, Turner, Jackson, McGahee

Every single one of these guys had a better YPC than Lynch. In no way, shape, or form was he ever the best back this season

by Odekerk on Feb 4, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

you're naming names and acting like the Pro Bowl matters

Marshawn Lynch was teh best back in the game for at least half the season. The total season YPC means nothing.

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by Rorschach44 on Feb 4, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Everyone knows the Pro Bowl is a joke, I don't know why you brought that up.

Those players are either flat-out better backs or arguably better backs.

The point is no one should seriously think Lynch was the best back at any point in the season when there were always guys that were unarguably better than him at any point. Obviously at this point you aren’t going to agree with me, but you’re just flat-out wrong.

by Odekerk on Feb 4, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

I think you need to rewatch the season

Lynch was just a flat out beast for half this season, and there were a whole lot of people that said he’s easily the best back in the league for a good portion of the season.

You don’t have to like it, but it was true.

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by Rorschach44 on Feb 5, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

McFaddens injury problems however

make him less valuable than Lynch. Yes he’s more talented. That’s why I said a 3rd as opposed to a 4th. But he’s had 1 season where he’s played in 13 games, and just because he’s traded doesn’t mean he’s going to miraculously stay healthy.

I’m not arguing McFaddens talent,or whether or not he’s more talented than Lynch(he is).However Lynch is arguably just as valuable, because he’s so durable. But teams generally don’t give out first and second round picks for players who don’t stay on the field, especially for a position that has such a short shelf life.

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by mob16151 on Feb 4, 2012 1:08 AM EST up reply actions

Lynch wasn't even a top 30 back when he was traded.

He couldn’t keep his starting at Buffalo and was another arrest away from being suspended for a good chunk of games. If he can get a 4th and 5th/6th, McFadden definitely would get a 2nd. His injuries are what keep him from getting a 1st.

Durable or not, if a guy in a situation like Lynch can get 2 mid round picks, then McFadden can get a 2nd.

by Odekerk on Feb 4, 2012 1:25 AM EST up reply actions

But at that time

he had also played in 45 of a possible 52 games, and started 37 of those games. And averaged 4.1 ypc for his career with 17 TD’s.

McFadden so far in his career has played in 45 of a possible 64 games, with 32 games started., and has 16 rushing td’s. He averages 4.8 ypc.

Once again the market is simply not there for the raiders to get a first for McFadden. They might be able to get a second, from a team that needs a back, but with his injury history, I personally feel like the Raiders will probably get offered something like a 3rd and a 5th for him.

Sidenote: Lynch and McFadden were easy to compare, as Lynch was in his 4th season when traded, and McFadden has just completed his. (I only used Lynchs Bills numbers from his 4th season when comparing them as well, didn’t use anything from his 2010 seahawks numbers.)

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by mob16151 on Feb 4, 2012 1:42 AM EST up reply actions

He averaged 4.02 YPC in his time with the Bills

You round down, not up. He came off a season where he was suspended 3 games and had a paltry 3.8 YPC. He had 4.4 in limited playing time the season he was traded.

He was a below average back who was a huge risk to be suspended again if he got in trouble.

McFadden has gotten above 5 YPC the last two years. His potential alone is enough to warrant a 2nd rounder. He’s much, much better runner and a better receiver than Lynch was when he was traded. Yes, he is injury prone, but he is a top 5 back when not hurt. He’s a dynamic playmaker with the ability to be the face and focus of an offense, something Lynch wasn’t even close to being.

Apparently we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

by Odekerk on Feb 4, 2012 2:00 AM EST up reply actions

Apparently we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

Thats fine.

He averaged 4.02 YPC in his time with the Bills
You round down, not up

4.0+4.1+3.8+4.4=16.3 16.3/4=4.075. you round that up to 4.1

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by mob16151 on Feb 4, 2012 2:11 AM EST up reply actions

You're not taking into account the number of carries for each average.

Those averages aren’t meant to be weighted evenly.

Tally up all the yards and divide them by the total number of carries to get the true YPC.

by Odekerk on Feb 4, 2012 2:13 AM EST up reply actions

I think DMC is an outstanding player

I wouldn’t take anything less than a first for him, and if someone could get him for a late 2nd or 3rd is getting one hell of a steal.

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by Smitty89 on Feb 3, 2012 7:16 PM EST reply actions

i like DMC too.

but he’s injury prone.
and he isnt better then richardson imo.

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by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Feb 3, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

the question isn't what you would take for him

it’s what would you give for him. Big difference

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by Ee Oulo on Feb 4, 2012 3:04 AM EST up reply actions

late 2nd. maybe even early third.

no ones giving a first for a HB in this league

by Lawrence Taylor The Real LT on Feb 3, 2012 7:19 PM EST reply actions

My hope would nothing more then a 3rd round pick and out of the AFC West unless Denver can get him!

by Bron#1 Fan on Feb 3, 2012 10:55 PM EST reply actions

I wonder what kind of cap hit the Raiders would take for trading him?

Here is his deal from rotoworld …

6/5/2008: Signed a six-year, $60 million contract. The deal contains $26 million guaranteed, including a $6.4 million “log” bonus and a second-year roster bonus of $5 million. 2012: $5.65 million, 2013: $5,856,250, 2014: Free Agent

… here is his deal from spotrac …

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/darren-mcfadden/

… so it looks like a couple of mi which is less than his salary.

So the question becomes does another team want to pay him that 5.6 mil in 2012 and 5.856 in 2013?

It is hard to do since he is not durable at all.. In four years he has started 32 games out of 64. I am not sure I would want to pay his salary for that kind of performance.

Based on that I would not give up more than a 3rd round pick. I would try to get him for a fourth in 2012 and then a conditional 3rd in 2013 based on his performance.

by MarkSP18 on Feb 4, 2012 10:15 AM EST reply actions

good point. interesting to know the cap hit for Oakland, and the remaining financial for a team trading for him

or does a trade only happen if a new deal is made with the new team

by durst on Feb 6, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

Raiders fan here. I wrote up an article on S&BP saying that you don’t trade him unless it’s a second and a fifth or sixth. I honestly want him traded very badly, but not for anything less than that. Teams that would make that deal are hard to come by though.

I want him traded because a running game isn’t hard to build in the NFL. Just need a good line and a back that doesn’t fumble every play or fall down at a cross breeze. Miami ditched Brown and Williams and everyone thought they were done. Still managed a good run game with Reggie Bush, rookie 3rd rounder Daniel Thomas, and below average Steve Slaton. Raiders could trade McFadden and release Bush then just pick up Jackie Battle and BenJarvis Green-Ellis and be fine. And that’s not even looking at draft prospects.

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by KA1Z3R on Feb 4, 2012 3:35 PM EST reply actions