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A letdown season after very nearly making the playoffs last season led to a new GM, Head Coach and Starting Quarterback for the Cleveland Browns going into next season.

So who is to blame for the 2nd least productive and the least efficient passing offense?

Well for once "blame the quarterback(s)" isn't a gross oversimplification. 4 QBs threw 25+ passes for the Browns, each one performed below replacement level (including an impressively awful -192.5% DVOA for Gradkowski) and they combined for -626 DYAR. They did this while receiving some of the best protection in the league (7th least sacks allowed, 8th in FO's adjusted sack rate). They didn't get much help from the wide receivers who combined for 22 drops (16 of them from Braylon Edwards), but even added the drops to the receptions, half of the passes to WRs were neither caught nor dropped. Brady Quinn didn't light the world on fire in his first run as a starter, but QBs rarely do, he's their guy. A surehanded #2 WR would be a big help to the offense to compliment the explosive Edwards and star TE Kellen Winslow.

via cowboysblog.dallasnews.com

The run game was the better half of the offense, but was still sub-par and featured the unfortunate combination of being among the worst in the league in both short yardage success and runs of 10+ yards. FO's numbers implicate both the OL and Jamal Lewis. Lewis was below average, but above replacement level and the OL ranked 21st in adjusted line yards. The bright side is that the 3 other Browns to carry the ball 20+ times did so very well. Jerome Harrison, Josh Cribbs and Jason Wright were all above average per carry, Cribbs and Harrison especially, Harrison ranked as the 2nd best RB per play (minimum 20 carries) this season. The Browns need to replace Jamal Lewis, but they have at the very least a great change of pace back.

via www.clevelandbrowns.com

Cleveland's D was middle of the pack against the pass despite an anemic pass rush and was below average, but not awful against the run. The Browns recorded the 3rd least sacks in the NFL this year, so for the total pass D to rank 12 spots higher than the pass rush, the secondary and the LBs in coverage had to have been pretty good.

Despite the addition of Shaun Rodgers, the Browns DL was blown off the ball against the run (though they remained one of the best against short yardage runs). They ranked dead last in adjusted line yards and rarely stuffed run plays.

via images.bigcatcountry.com

Browns have the 5th pick, but they have a great chance of one of the top 3 players (each of which fill a need) dropping to them since an offensive tackle is a priority for 3 of the 4, teams ahead of them and the Lions might go QB #1.

1. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State, 6'0, 200

2. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech 6’3, 214

3. Aaron Curry OLB, Wake Forest, 6’2, 246

Dan's pick for Cleveland,

5. Cleveland Browns
	Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest: Cleveland needs leadership and playmaking ability in it's linebacking unit, and Curry is arguably the most talented player in the draft. The Browns could also look to cornerbacks Malcolm Jenkins or Vontae Davis, but linebacker is a greater priority.

What are the fresh off the presses Mock Drafts saying about the AFC North's picks? Here are the picks from the 25 most recent mocks on HailRedskins Mock Draft Database. 

Browns, #5 Pick

By far the strongest consensus in the division. Curry was the only player taken by the same team over half the mocks by one of the 5 teams I looked at.

6 of the 25 mocks included a second round

Bengals, #6 Pick

here it is sorted by position

With the #6 pick the Bengals will likely have their choice of a few top OTs, which will be hard to pass up for a team that struggled to pass protect and run the ball.

and the 2nd rounder...

Ravens, pick #26

and sorted by position

no player was repeated in the 6, 2nd round mocks for the Ravens. WR Derrick Williams, DT Evander Hood, CBs Mike Mickens, Coye Francies, Darius Butler and Jarius Bird all appeared as the Ravens pick once.

Steelers, pick #32

and sorted by position

No consensus on a second rounder for PIT. Guards Herman Johnson and Andy Levitre, T Dallas Reynolds, OLB/DE Connor Barwin and CBs Asher Allen and Victor Harris were given as Steelers 2nd rounders.

The 2007 Bengals were as close to an average team as it gets, 7 wins, gave up 5 more points than the scored and registered a -0.1% DVOA. The 08 Bengals were suppose to build on that.

The defense actually did, giving up 3 TDs less against a much more powerful lineup of offenses and rising from 24th in 15th in DVOA. They were able to stop the run reasonably well (7th in Run D), but despite two big money DEs, Cincy's pass rush topped only the historically bad Cheifs, recording just 17 sacks (league average was 33). Given the performance of the pass rush a 21st ranked pass D is a pretty impressive performance from the back 7.

via stripehype.com

On the bright side the massive regression on offense is a bit easier to explain and correct. The Bengals dropped from the 6th ranked offense, to the 29th. The passing game dropped from 6th to 27th, as franchise QB Carson Palmer threw only 14 passes this season. Career backup Ryan Fitzpatrick with 135 attempts (all in 2005) in his career took over and passed the ball 372 times with disastrous results. By Football Outsiders stats only Marc Bulger performed worse among QBs to get 250+ attempts. Let's not dump all the blame on Fitzpatrick though. The Bengals allowed the most sacks in the league (51), FO's opponent and situational adjustments soften the ranking to 27th, but the pass pro was terrible. The re-addition of Palmer will go a long ways, but the pass pro needs to be addressed.

via d.yimg.com

The run game is a bit more concerning. In 2007 a Kenny Watson/broken down Rudi Johnson combo made for a mediocre run game (with Watson the far more effective of the pair. In 2008 Watson sat behind Chris Perry and new addition Cedric Benson. Perry was historically bad, averaging under 3 YPC and fumbling 5 times in just 103 carries. Benson continued to be the bust he was in Chicago and was only a slight upgrade from 07 Rudi Johnson. The pair led the Bengals run game to the very bottom of the league. The backs maybe not be totally to blame though (well Perry's fumbles are certainly his fault) The Bengals OL ranked dead last in FOs adjusted line yards.

via cache.daylife.com

The advanced stats, the simple stats and the eyeball test come to the same conclusion, that OL was bad, awful, terrible, not at all good at their jobs. The pass rush is also lacking, but Cincy Jungle head writer Kirkendall has discussed why the Bengals are unlikely to invest heavily in another DE.

The Bengals problems start on the lines, but they may be able to go without an elite tackle by sliding young guard Andrew Whitworth outside and promoting promising backup Anthony Collins to a starting tackle spot. If the Bengals feel that's a viable option at the tackles they could add another piece to their improving defense or replace Cedric Benson with a top rookie RB.

Bengals head writer Kirkendall gave a game ready center as a major need. Likely one, maybe both of the classes top centers (Alex Mack and Max Unger) could be available with the Bengals second round pick.

The Bengals will need to bolter the offensive line that killed any chance of an effective offense under Fitzpatrick, but may use the #6 pick on a defensive star.

Favorite picks for the Bengals at #6 are defenders MLB Rey Maualuga, DE Brian Orakpo and DT B.J. Raji, offensive darkhorse pick RB Chris Wells and tackles Micheal Oher, Andre Smith and Mocking Dan's pick in his first mock draft...

6. Cincinnati Bengals
	Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: After allowing 51 sacks in 2008, the Bengals are desperate for help along the offensive line. Even if left tackle Levi Brown and right tackle Stacy Andrews are healthy, Monroe has the ability to start ahead either of them.

The Ravens shocked the world (minus Ravens fans and the fine statgeeks at Football Outsiders) with a 6 game turnaround taking them from a top 10 draft pick to the AFC Championship Game.

A return to greatness by the D (9th to 2nd in DVOA) with a offensive boost from a much improved running game (26th to 9th) and a once again respectable passing game (25th to 19th) spurred on the improvement.

The D's improvement was almost entirely against the pass (hard to improve from the #1 run D). The Ravens pass D struggled in 2007 with Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle missing a combined 15 starts and now #4 CB Corey Ivy being pushed into the lineup as a 13 game starter. In 2008 the Ravens again saw about a full seasons worth of games missed by it's starting CBs (10 by McAlister, 6 by Rolle) but were better prepared this time with the acquisition of Fabian Washington from the Raiders. They also got more from Rolle in both total games a quality of play as Samari has come out as one of the league top CBs in Football Outsiders measures this past season.The Ravens run D remained as one of the stoutest in the league.

via www.nflgridirongab.com

On offense the Ravens turned their 1st round pick into an instant upgrade at QB (from awful to competant). The QB play rejuvenated Derrick Mason making him prolific and effiecent instead of just the recipient of 100 McNair dumpoffs. While the rookie QB got more of the attention it was the running game that really got the Raven O moving. The addition of free agent fullback Lorenzo Neal and 1st round guard Ben Grubbs along with the emergence of Le'Ron McClain as a (very good) ball carrier turned the offense into on of the elite short yardage running teams (3rd best) and let them run 10 more times a game with the same per carry average.

via blog.cleveland.com

The Ravens have 4 starters plus 5th key role player and their both their kicker and punter hitting free agency. Defensive stars Terrell Suggs (the youngest player in the top 35 in sacks among active players), Ray Lewis (the face of the franchise), and (06 Pro Bowl and author of the greatest penalty reaction ever) Bart Scott are unrestricted free agents. Center Jason Brown and Fullback Lorenzo Neal also will hit the market.

As currently constructed (before 08 contracts expire) the Ravens D is pretty well set in the front 7, a bit old and injury prone at the CBs but deep at safety, the offensive line is reaping the benefits of 3 first day OL picks in the 3 drafts before last years (and they could replace Jason Brown from within by shuffling the line when Marshall Yanda returns from injury). They have their QB in Flacco and a 3 headed RB comittee, so it comes to targets in the passing game. Derrick Mason is still productive, but hits 36 this year. Todd Heap doesn't appear to be the Heap of old, but is still productive and shows flashes of what he was, Mark Clayton was a solid deep threat (41 catches for 17 yards per) and there wasn't much after that. Adding targets to continue to build on their newfound (or newly re-found) offensive success is a primary concern.

via graphics8.nytimes.com

The Ravens needs are to replace any front 7 starters lost, add a CB to back or replace the older starters and to add targets to improve the passing game.

Popular picks for the Ravens at #26 are hometown WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Hakeem Nicks, and CBs Sean Smith, Vonte Davis, Alphonso Smith, and Darius Butler. 

Mocking Dan's Ravens pick in his initial mock draft:

26. Baltimore Ravens
	Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest: This pick is dependent on what the Ravens can do with linebackers Ray Lewis, Bart Scott and Terrell Suggs. If two out of the three can be re-signed, Baltimore will have to find the eventual replacement for either Samari Rolle or Chris McAlister, two players who just can't stay healthy.