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6 months ago: FILE - In this Nov. 8, 2008 file photo, Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford throws a pass during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Kentucky in Lexington, Ky., Stafford is a top prospect in the 2009 NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke, File)

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From Steve Wyche at NFL.com:

The Lions are in negotiations to finalize a contract with Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, who would be the No. 1 overall draft pick Saturday.

...

An accord could be reached as soon as Wednesday night. Lions officials have been negotiating with Tom Condon and Ben Dogra, who not only represent Stafford but also Baylor OT Jason Smith. Smith is believed to be an option for the Lions should a deal with Stafford not materialize. Detroit also is considering Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry, whom many consider the most complete player in the draft.

The negotiations with Curry could be a bluff by the Detroit Lions to get Stafford and his reps down to a more manageable contract. The Lions do NOT want to pay Matthew Stafford a contract like the one JaMarcus Russell got from Oakland a few years ago. Curry is their possible bluff because Curry stated this week that he'd be willing to take less money than last year's #1 overall pick, Jake Long.

Selecting Stafford will not sit well with Detroit fans, and Mocking Dan has already stated he thinks Curry is the smart pick. However, from a pure dollars-and-sense standpoint, it does not make financial sense to give a linebacker like Curry #1 overall pick money, even at a bargain basement price. That would mean the Lions would have a substantial amount of their cap locked up in linebackers who do not rush the passer (Detroit will likely play Cover-2 in 2009 under new head coach Jim Schwartz because Schwartz ran a Cover-2 variant in Tennessee).

#1 overall money is usually reserved for QBs and OTs, and if the Lions feel Stafford has the tools to succeed in this league, then it makes sense to draft Stafford #1 overall.

Over the past 3 years, the Green Bay Packers have had the most draft picks in the NFL, with 32 picks.  It then makes sense that the Packers are the 2nd youngest team in the NFL, based on Age and Years of Experience.  This won't be changing in 2009, as they have 9 more picks this year.

I took a look at the last 3 drafts for the Packers, to try and see if they had any tendencies, which may help shape where they will go in 2009.  Here's a list of their picks from the first 3 rounds, as well as the number of games played by those picks:

Some notes:

• The Packers 2006 top of the draft was fantastic.  They got a top 5 LB, a very good WR, and 2 starting Interior Lineman.  A 3rd starting Interior Lineman, Tony Moll, was also taken in the same draft.  Not many teams, if any at all, can have that good of a draft.  Makes you also wonder how they missed so badly with Abdul Hodge (who's now with Cincinnati)?
  
• Did you know the Packers had taken a WR high in the draft in each of the past 3 drafts?  The best thing for them is that all of them have contributed as well, led by Greg Jennings.  If you look at the whole draft, they've taken 2 each year since 2006.
• These 12 guys have played in 314 of a possible 432 games, which is 72.9%.  This is the highest we've seen yet.  I'm gonna guess this is one of the better percentages in the league, especially with how well they did in 2006.
  
• Of the 22 starters in Week 1, 14 of them were drafted by the Packers.  They've done a good job developing their draft picks, while filling key roles (especially on defense) through free agency.

Here's a chart of what positions the Packers have picked over the past 3 years.  This should give us a glimpse into what they could do in 2009:

Interesting tidbits:

• These numbers confirm what I said earlier:  The Packers like drafting on offense rather than on defense.  This year, I see this trend changing, as you can't focus on one side year after year. 
  
• Also, with the switch to the 3-4, they are going to need some depth at DE and LB, which I fully expect them to take 2 of each this year. 
  
• They are pretty low on OT as well, so I expect them to take at least 1 big guy. 
  
• I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they won't take a QB, as they took 2 last year.  I'll also bet they take at least 1 WR.  They just can't help themselves.
• They've taken 3 CBs since 2006, but none have gotten higher than Nickel CB, thanks to Woodson and Harris.  They are probably set there as well.

We all know the running joke in the league is that the Lions only take Wide Receivers in the first round, especially when they are in the top 10.  Thankfully for Lions' fans, Matt Millen is no longer drafting for them, even though I think he had learned from drafting the same position in the top 10 3 years in a row.

I took a look at the last 3 drafts for the Lions, to try and see if they had any tendencies, which may help shape where they will go in 2009.  Here's a list of their picks from the first 3 rounds, as well as the number of games played by those picks:

Some notes:

• After a few years of really struggling in the draft, the last 3 years have been pretty good.  I'd consider Calvin Johnson the best player drafted in that time frame, and I credit the Lions organization for taking the PR lumps, taking another WR, and ending up with a fantastic player.
• The Lions had 5 picks in the first 3 rounds last year, which is the same as 2009.  They went 3 on defense, all up front.  I'm guessing they'll take at least a Safety this year, as they've brought in 2 CBs since Friday.  They'll probably stay away from a RB as well, especially with the signing of Maurice Morris on Friday.
• These 12 guys have played in 231 of a possible 352 games, which is 65.6%.  I don't know what the league average is, but this seems pretty low.  Only 3 players have played in every game of their career, with 2 others being just 1 game short.
• Of the 22 starters in Week 1, only 11 of them were drafted by the Lions.  Again, I don't have any stats from other teams, but I'm guessing the more successful teams are in the 15 to 16 range.  They'll need to work on drafting and retaining their talent to get back to competing for the playoffs.

With the Lions choosing #1 overall, here are a few interesting notes:

• The last time the Lions had the #1 overall pick was 1980, and they took Heisman trophy winner RB Billy Sims.  Had 2008 Heisman winner Sam Bradford decided to come out this year, I think the Lions would have selected their 2nd Oklahoma Heisman winner.
• Over the past 20 years, there have been 11 QBs taken #1 overall, but only 5 have turned out to be NFL quality QBs (Aikman, Bledsoe, Manning x 2, Palmer).  The Lions should tread wisely when contemplating taking Stafford #1 overall.
• The last 2 times the Lions have taken a QB with their first pick, they've come away with Joey Harrington and Andre Ware.  Again, there's no need to take the QB #1 just because everyone says you should or will.

Lastly, here's a chart of what positions the Lions have picked over the past 3 years.  This should give us a glimpse into what the Lions could do in 2009:

From a sheer numbers look, the Lions have drafted heavily on defense the past 3 years.  I expect them to focus a little more on offense than in the past, but still get at least 3 or 4 defensively, as that's where they really struggled last season.

The Minnesota Vikings won their first NFC North title in 2008, and their first division title since the 2000 Central Division title.  The Vikings had been the "sexy" pick to win the division for a couple years, and it finally came true this past season.  They unfortunately ran into a hot Eagles team in the Wild Card round, ending their season sooner than expected.

The Vikings have 7 draft picks in 2009, with no pick in the 6th round (went to Eagles for Kelly Holcomb), and an additional 7th round pick (from Washington for Erasmus James).  See the chart on the right to see all the picks.  The Vikings did not pick until pick 43 last year, trading away their first rounder, as well as a couple 3rd rounders, in the Jared Allen trade.  I'd say the Vikings did quite nicely in that deal.

I've combined rankings for the Vikings based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Vikings stacked up this season:

The Vikings, for the third straight year, were the #1 rush defense, in terms of yards in the NFL.  Obviously having Williams x 2, along with Jared Allen in your front 4 will cause the great numbers.  They also seemed to give up a lot of passing yards, but FO says they had the 5th best Pass defense in the league.  Why?  See my Bears profile, as I'm sure these are the same reasons for the Vikings.  Overall, I'd say their defense is very good, and the main reason they had such a successful season.

The Offense, however, did not fare so well.  While piling up loads of yards on the ground, FO does not like the Vikings rush attack.  Biggest reason?  DVOA rewards consistency over "Boom or Bust".  Adrian Peterson is the ultimate "boom or bust" running back.  He certainly can take off for 50 yards on every play.  However, he has a lot of 0, 1, or 2 yard gains, probably too many for a RB of his caliber.  He also fumbles a lot (9 times on 384 touches, or 42.7 touches/fumble), which causes the DVOA to go down as well.

The biggest surprise to me was being dead last in Special Teams.  They gave up the most punt return yards in the league (including 4 TDs), and were 4th worst in both Net Punting Average and Percentage of Touchbacks on Kickoffs.  Luckily for the Vikings, Special Teams Coordinator Paul Ferraro decided to take another job as the LB Coach with the Rams.  The Vikings promoted Brian Murphy, former Special Teams Assistant, to the Coordinator position.  Let's hope, for Vikings fans sake, that he didn't learn the bad things from his predecessor.  Gonzo, head writer over at the Daily Norseman, had this to say about the change in coaches:

So, here's hoping that Murphy can help the Vikings' special teams in 2009 and beyond.  As we've discussed ad nauseum here for the past couple of months, the special teams really can't get a whole lot worse than they were in 2008, but here's hoping that we hit an upswing now rather than sitting in a valley.

There were no other major coaching changes, which is good news for the continuity of the team.  Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier did interview for a few jobs, but did not get any offers (which is a travesty in my opinion).  The lack of change should really help out the offense, and Tarvaris Jackson in particular.

Speaking of Jackson, I think the biggest question with the Vikings going into Free Agency and the draft will be "Will they take a QB in the draft, sign one in Free Agency, or stick with Jackson?".  Those guys over at the Daily Norseman have their opinions, and most of them think Jackson is not the answer.  I don't see much talk about drafting one, however, which I agree with.  The defense is ready to win now, and elite RBs don't last forever (See Tomlinson, LaDainian).  They need a guy who can win games for them in 2009, not in 2011 or 2012.  Garcia is a good candidate, as would Kerry Collins.  We'll see what happens.

The Vikings had a successful 2008 season, but have the talent to go much deeper in the playoffs than they did this season.  With the right additions, they can be a very good team once again, challenging for the Super Bowl.

Flashback to Thanksgiving weekend:  The Bears played on Sunday Night Football at Minnesota.  They gave up a 99 yard TD pass to fomer Bear Bernard Berrian, on their way to a 34-14 loss.  It put the Bears at 6-6, 1 game behind the Vikings for the division lead.  They were also staring up at Tampa Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, Washington, Philadelphia, and tied with New Orleans for the Wild Card.  Things were looking rather bleak.

Then they beat up on the Jaguars, and won a pair of 3 point OT games against the Saints and Packers, and all of the sudden they were smack dab in the middle of the Playoff race.  They needed a win, plus some help.  Well, they got the help, but failed on the winning part.  They went into Houston, and got beat 31-24, thus ending any playoff chances they had. 

For a team with little expectations coming into the season (seems like 7-9 or worse was the norm), getting within 1 win of the playoffs is quite an accomplishment.  Even though they lost that last game, I think the momentum at the end of the season will continue into 2009, as long as they get some help at some key positions.

The Bears have 7 total picks in this year's draft, one in each round.  They do end up losing 1 spot in the 6th round, as they "swapped" picks with Tampa Bay.  They get Tampa's pick from the Brian Griese trade, and Tampa gets the Bears pick for Dan Buenning.  This will give them many opportunities to fill in the gaps.

I've combined rankings for the Bears based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Bears stacked up this season:

If I gave you these numbers, without the record, would you have guessed this team won 9 games?  It's a testament to the players and coaching staff that they overachieved this year.  I think another part of it is they gave up a lot of yards, but kept the other team from scoring.

The other thing that jumps off the page at me is the Passing defense.  By straight yardage, only the Chargers and Seahawks were worse.  On the flip side, they were ranked 11th by FO.  Why is this?  A couple theories of mine:

• The Bears finished 8th in the league on Passing 3rd down defense.  This takes a greater significance in DVOA than straight yardage.  
• The Bears played 7 games against the top 11 Passing offenses (according to DVOA).  Only three times did those offenses pass for over 250 yards.
• They gave up 407 yards to former Bear Brian Griese, which is a lot of yards.  However, it took him 67 attempts to get there, which is only 6.1 yds/att.  Suddenly, 407 yards doesn't seem so bad.  The league average was 6.5 yds/att, so I'd say it was a pretty good day.

An overachieving team means not much shakeup in the coaching staff.  They did replace their Defensive Line coach with former Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli, and Head Coach Lovie Smith will be taking a more hands-on approach to the defense next season.  Smith is a lot like his mentor Tony Dungy, in that he doesn't fire too many coaches.  He just stays the course.

I'd be remiss to do a profile of the Bears without mentioning former starting QB Rex "The Sex Cannon" Grossman.  He did lead them to the Super Bowl in '06 (thanks in large part to their defense and Devin Hester), but could never be counted on to not screw up, let alone win a game.  The Bears absolutely made the right decision by going to Kyle Orton, who I think is a pretty good QB.  He makes good decisions (only 12 INTs), and can be counted on to win a game (see OT wins against NO and GB).  I don't see Grossman coming back next year, as he is a Free Agent.

The Bears did hit the Jackpot last year in the draft, picking Matt Forte with the 13th pick in the 2nd round.  He was fantastic, but touched the ball 379 times, tops in the league.  He needs a right hand man.  I asked WCG, head writer at Windy City Gridiron, about the RB situation:

Forte touched the ball more for the Bears than any other player in the league.  If they want him around for 10 years he cannot continue to carry the ball 400 times a year.  The Bears are first and always a run team.  So long as they run with Orton they need a complement back who can spell Forte and be a change of pace.  I think the Bears do take a running back in the draft,  but  probably not in the first 3 rounds.

I'm going to heed his advice, and stay away from taking a RB for the Bears early in the draft, as they can get a decent back later in the draft.

The 2008 Bears surprised a lot of people last year, and are primed to have a similar 2009, riding the momentum from the end of the season.  If they can get the same production from an '09 rookie that they got from Forte, the Bears could be the team to beat in the NFC North.

BRETT FAVRE!

Ok, that's the only mention of #4, as there is plenty to talk about without mentioning the attention loving QB.  The 2008 Packers were a really tough team to figure out.  There were weeks where they looked very good (Colts, Bears, and Titans, even though they lost), and the rest of the time they played to their opponent's level, and lost most of those games.  They were 0-7 in games decided by 4 or less points, which is really frustrating to a team.  All of this led to a 6-10 record, and the 9th pick in the draft.

The Packers have 9 total picks in this year's draft, as they picked up the 3rd Rounder from the Jets for that famous QB (would have been a 2nd or 1st had the Jets not choked down the stretch), and they got the Saints 6th rounder, after they traded the Saints a 7th rounder last year.  Nine picks is second most in the draft, only behind the Eagles.

I've combined rankings for the Packers based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Packers stacked up this season:

Straight numbers wise, the Packers offense was in the Top 25% of the league.  They scored a lot of points, led by first year starter Aaron Rodgers.  He played extremely well, despite the circumstances.  Most Packers fans feel as though it was the right decision, as you can see from this poll (via Acme Packing Company):

It was painfully obvious, especially to Packer fans, that the defense was the downfall of this year's edition of the Packers.  They rode their defense all the way to the NFC Title game in 2007, but struggled mightily in '08.  They lost Cullen Jenkins in Week 4 for the season, which was a big blow to the Packers.  They also lost Al Harris for 4 games, and Atari Bigby for 9.  They were all key players in '07. They especially struggled stopping the run, ranking 29th in Rush Defense DVOA, ranking only above the Texans, Rams, and Lions.  I'm guessing they will be spending 2 or 3 picks at least suring up that run defense.

With a 6-10 record comes changes, and their was a big change in Green Bay.  Out is former Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders (no, not that Bob Sanders), and in is former Panthers and Texans Head Coach Dom Capers.  What Capers brings with him is an entirely different scheme, the 3-4.  I asked Brandon, head writer over at Acme Packing Company, how prepared he thought the Packers were personnel wise to make this switch:

The defense should be fine for the switch at linebacker and secondary, but they are going to have to do something on the defensive line. The only 3-4 NT on the roster if Ryan Pickett, and he had a forgetable 2008. Former Pro Bowl DE Aaron Kampman is 260 lbs. and too light for a 3-4 DE. He could become the next Terrell Suggs, but Kampman has never played LB. I mentioned Jenkins above [would make a great 3-4 DE]. I don't know where DT Johnny Jolly or Justin Harrell would fit in the scheme. They might need an entirely new defensive line.

This means they'll do exactly what I thought, and grab a few run stoppers along the DL.  They'll also need a good deal of technique work, meaning mini-camp and training camp will be especially important to the Packers. 

I've never been a fan of new coaches coming in, and forcing the personnel into the new coach's scheme.  It just doesn't make much sense to me.  I understand Capers is a 3-4 guy, but why not wait a year or two, until you get the right guys in there, before making the switch?  It's not like the offense is in rebuilding mode.  Hell, they were one play away from the Super Bowl just a year ago.  Good coaches should be able to coach the players they have, not only be able to coach in their scheme.

I really don't think the Packers were that far off from being a very good team in 2008.  Each week they'd find some new way of losing a close game, and were handcuffed with many injuries.  I'm a big believer in the law of averages, and losing all 7 games decided by 4 points or less won't happen again.  Winning 4 of those 7 would have put them in the Playoffs.  Drastic changes weren't necessary, but that's the way they're going.  We're going to find out in 2009 how those changes worked out.

I'm going to start off my team profiles with the team with the #1 pick in the draft, the Detroit Lions.  First thing I want to do is look at all the draft picks the Lions have, and where they fall in the overall draft (table on right).

Thanks to Jerry Jones, the Lions have 5 picks in the first 82 overall, which is great news for the league's first 0-16 team.  They will be able to fill many of the holes they have, both offensively and defensively.  I asked Sean Yuille, head writer for Pride of Detroit, how happy he was with that trade.  He said:

I was ecstatic the day the trade was made and to this day wonder how the Cowboys could be so dumb.  I'll never understand the thinking behind giving up so much to bring in a #2 receiver (since TO is #1), especially since he did very little for them after being traded.  Not only was Williams' production lacking, but he wasn't going to be a player that sends them to the playoffs to begin with.  The trade was very strange, but I'm glad the Lions were on the positive side of one for a change.

I'd feel the same way if I were the Lions.  It was a great change, and should pay dividends right away in 2009.

I've combined rankings for the Lions based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Lions stacked up this season:

My words really can't do any justice to how bad the Lions were this season, especially defensively.  Football Outsiders has been tracking DVOA since 1995, and the Lions ended up with the 2nd lowest Total DVOA ever, only beating out the 2005 49ers.  Defensively, however, they were dead last ever.  Here's what FO had to say:

On defense, however, they are on their own terrible, horrible planet. The Lions are the worst defense in DVOA history by more than seven percentage points. They are worst than any previous defense by almost eight percentage points, because in the end the second-worst defense of the DVOA era belongs to... this year's Denver Broncos.

The Lions seem to be in a little better shape on offense, if only because they have MegaTron, Calvin Johnson.  They finally got that WR pick right after 4 tries.  They also used their first round pick last year on Gosder Cherilus, who should be anchoring their OL for the next 10 years.

Finishing 0-16 brings on many changes in the front office and coaching staff, and for the most part I think they did a pretty good job (really? the Lions?) at selecting their new staff.  It started during the year when they (finally) fired Matt Millen, and promoted Martin Mayhew to GM.  He's already made a big splash by taking all those picks from the Cowboys.  They then hired Jim Schwartz, former Defensive Coordinator of the Titans, as their new head coach, which was also a very good choice.  He'll bring tougness and expertise to a team and defense who desparately need it.

They also hired former Ram Head Coach Scott Linehan to be the Offensive Coordinator, reuniting him with QB Daunte Culpepper.  Linehan was the OC when the Vikings were really good on offense back in 02-03, and Culpepper thrived under him.  Could he have his rebirth in 2009?  Will he even have the opportunity?  As for the Defensive Coordinator, they hired Gunther Cunningham, former DC of the Chiefs.  Another very good choice, as he was rumored to be a candidate for several other teams.

The Lions have many, many positions to improve on in 2009.  I'm going to lay out what I think they should do, with the help of Sean and the community at Pride of Detroit.  I promise to be better than Matt Millen!