Over the past 3 seasons, only 4 teams have had fewer draft picks than the New Orleans Saints.  This trend is going to continue, with only 4 picks in 2009, as they've decided to build their team more through trades and Free Agency.  I'm not sure that's the best way to build a team, but they were in the NFC Title game just 3 years ago, so it can't be that bad.

I took a look at the last 3 drafts for the Saints, to try and see if they had any tendencies, which may help shape where they will go in 2009.  Here's a list of their picks from the first 3 rounds, as well as the number of games played by those picks:

Some notes:

• Only 7 of their 21 picks over the past 3 seasons have been in the first 3 rounds.  Reggie Bush is the best player of the bunch, although it's a little early on Sedrick Ellis.  Bush's games would have been higher without injuries.
  
• The Saints have drafted 3 players in the secondary early in the past 3 years, and 2 of them are pretty good players.  Harper has only missed 1 start in 2 years, and Porter was the starting CB this season before being lost for the season due to injury.
• Andy Alleman was pretty much a wasted pick.  He was active for only 1 game his rookie season, and was waived just before the 2008 season.  As it often happens in the NFL, Alleman caught on with the Dolphins, starting at G in 5 games, including the playoff game.
  
• These 7 guys have played in 135 of a possible 224 games, which is 60.3%.  This is lower than the Lions number, which I thought was already low.  Alleman definitely plays a part in this, as do injuries.  Teams must be successful with their high draft picks.
  
• Of the 22 starters in Week 1, only 10 of them were drafted by the Saints.  This is again lower than the Lions, which I can't say is a good sign.  It also proves my point correct that they like building their team through free agency and trades.
• The best player drafted by the Saints in these 3 years was taken at #252 overall, Marques Colston.  Was this really good scouting, or just dumb luck?  Either way, the Saints got a really good player only 3 players from "Mr. Irrelevant".

Lastly, here's a chart of what positions the Saints have picked over the past 3 years.  This should give us a glimpse into what the Saints could do in 2009:

Here's what I see:

• The Saints have drafted at least 1 player at every position on defense over the past 3 years, and I'm going to guess they'll go with at least 1 LB, and 1 S this season. 
  
• They haven't taken a QB, but they don't need to.  Same goes for TE, as they invested 2 draft picks already in Jeremy Shockey. 
  
• They drafted a Kicker last year, cut him before the season, signed him when Martin Gramatica got hurt, then cut him again when he missed an Extra Point.  I'm guessing they won't do that again.
  

The 2008 Panthers accomplished something that had never happened in NFC South history:  Win the division after not finishing in last place the previous year.  They held off the Falcons by 1 game, who would have made it 6 straight years, after they finished 4-12 in 2007.  This stat is probably only exceeded by the fact that the NFC has won the Super Bowl coin toss the past 12 years.

The Panthers had a very good year, before completely falling apart in the Playoffs.  Well, the whole team didn't fall apart, just their Quarterback.  5 Interceptions and a fumble will do that to you.  He started pressing after the first couple, and it was all downhill from there.  Easily the worst game in Delhomme's career, and it had to come at a pretty bad time.

The Panthers will use its 5 draft picks in 2009 to hopefully get further in the playoffs.  Their first pick isn't until pick 59, as they lost their 1st round pick to the Eagles when they moved up in the first round last year and selected Jeff Otah.  With pick 28 being the one traded, I'd say that was a pretty good move on the Panthers part.  Otah looks to be a very good player, and is much better than any OT that will be around at 28 this year.  They also lost their 7th round pick when they traded it to Miami for Josh McCown.  

I've combined rankings for the Panthers based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Panthers stacked up this season:

The FO numbers look like a team that finished 12-4: only 1 category out of the top 10, which is probably right on.  It makes it really easy to figure out where the Panthers will be looking in the draft (DT, LB).  I'm actually surprised they finished 3rd in Rush Offense, as Williams and Stewart are the best RB duo in the NFL. 

The Passing DVOA number is interesting as well, especially in light of the playoff performance of Delhomme.  Overall he had a pretty good season, and they finished higher than both the Cowboys and Steelers, who have "elite" QBs.  Delhomme will be in the last year of his contract in 2009, and it doesn't look like the Panthers are moving quickly to lock him up long term.  Will they draft a QB this year?  I'll let the readers of Cat Scratch Reader tell you what they think:

While I agree that teams should draft "value" players if they fall in their lap, this almost never happens with a QB.  Almost every QB goes higher than they should, so I don't think they should take one this year.  Here's my plan:  If Delhomme plays well again this year, he'll certainly earn himself an extension, so it works out for the Panthers, and they didn't waste a pick this year (especially when they only have 5 of them).  If he fails, the Panthers will fail, and pick higher up in the draft.  There will be 2 elite QBs in next year's draft (Bradford, McCoy), as well as Tim Tebow.  Much better prospects than this year's crop.

The biggest change in the coaching staff this year was Defensive Coordinator Mike Trgovac decided not to come back next year.  He later gave some reasoning for his decision, which you can decide for yourself whether you believe him.  Taking Trgovac's place is former Indianapolis DC Ron Meeks.  Meeks brings lots of experience working for Tony Dungy, and will most definitely run the Tampa-2 defense.  Jaxon, head writer at Cat Scratch Reader, hopes Meeks can bring some much needed creativity to the Panther's defense:

The big question Panther fans have is whether Meeks can inject some life into a defense that became too predictable in the last half of the season. If Polian is right then Meeks is at least capable of bringing some creativity and spirit to the defense

The Panthers had 2 big name Free Agents-to-be this offseason, so there was much speculation as to who they would franchise, when the time came.  The Panthers took care of OT Jordan Gross, signing him to a long term deal, and immediately slapped the franchise tag on DE Julius Peppers.  Oh what a saga it's been with him.

Peppers has proclaimed he doesn't want to play for the Panthers anymore, and wants to play in a 3-4 defense.  He then said he only wants to be traded to 4 teams, 3 of which in the NFC.  We know Dallas is one, and rumor has it the other 2 NFC teams are the Falcons and Buccaneers.  Tampa I see, although they don't play a 3-4 defense.  Atlanta I just can't see happening.  It just doesn't seem right.

As far as the AFC team goes, Jaxon speculates it is the Dolphins, which is a definite possibility.  I also think Baltimore (3-4 Defense), Denver (3-4 Defense), or Tennessee (4-3 Defense) could be this 4th team.  Tennessee obviously had a very good year, and have a very good defense.  They'll also have loads of cap space once Haynesworth signs somewhere else.

If I were the Panthers front office, I'd make Peppers make the decision to play, unless the Panthers get what they want out of it (think Jared Allen deal).  This would be great for the Panthers, as they'd get back in the first round, and get a top DL prospect.  However, I would not force a trade either, just to get a disgruntled Peppers out of the organization.  If he really doesn't want to play for the Panthers, make him sit out the season, devaluing his worth.

The Panthers had a very successful season last year, but do have some holes, and could have a very large one at DE.  While not having a first round pick (for now) hurts, they should be able to fill their needs through the draft.  Although I'd bet against a repeat division title, since it hasn't happened yet in the NFC South.

There are few teams that ended the year in a more disappointing fashion than Tampa Bay.  Heading into Week 14, a Monday Night showdown with division rival Carolina, they were 9-3, tied for first with the Panthers.  They had lost their 3 games by a combined 11 points, and were looking to take a strangle-hold on the division.  Then the season fell apart in front of a National TV audience.

I remember thinking at the time that NFC South teams had only lost twice at home up to that point, so it would be tough for Tampa to win in Charlotte.  DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart ran all over the Buccaneers defense, en route to 301 yards and 4 TDs.  Tampa Bay then lost on the road in Atlanta, got blown out by the Chargers, and lost to the hapless Raiders in Week 17, where a win would have still gotten them into the playoffs.

So where does a team go after failing down the stretch?  The Bucs have 8 total picks in the draft, 1 in each round and 2 in the 7th round.  Their 6th and 7th round picks have moved around a little.  They moved up 1 spot in the 6th round, trading Dan Buenning to the Bears, after they had given up their pick in round 6 to the Bears for Brian Griese.  They also moved up in the 7th round from last year's draft day trade with Jacksonville, so they could draft Quentin Groves, but traded away their 7th rounder to the Steelers for Sean Mahan.  They also picked up a compensatory pick from Baltimore for Marques Douglas.

I've combined rankings for the Buccaneers based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Bucs stacked up this season:

Football Outsiders was dead on with the Pythagorean Wins total.  The defense was top-notch, as has been the norm for the last decade in Tampa.  Their offense, while putting up a decent number of yards, was not very good when looking at the DVOA numbers.  Without delving deep into the numbers, my guess is they had lots of yards on lots of attempts (low averages), or had a lot of gain 8 yards on 3rd and 9.  Either way, the offense struggled.

For a while, it looked like Jon Gruden was going to save his job after the 9-7 season.  Buc's fans got a little excited when Mike Shanahan was fired, hoping that they could hire him.  Here's a poll on Buc' Em from the day Shanahan was fired:

Well, Shanahan wasn't hired, but Gruden and GM Bruce Allen were fired, and head writer at Buc' Em JScott was a little surprised about Gruden:

To say the least I'm pretty shocked. At the onset I agree with Bruce Allen going, Gruden? Not so much. We went to the Post-Season three times (in seven years) under Gruden and he actually had a winning record here, BUT he was stubborn in his play calling and in his dealings with players. At this point, I'm sorry to see him go, but I'm happy to see the Owners Buc' Up if you will and prove they aren't satisfied with mediocrity. Bruce Allen wasnt able to bring in the necessary talent to make this franchise a consistent power house and Gruden to some extent has to be held accountable for that as well...

I think this was a much needed change for Tampa Bay.  Gruden did have a winning record (57-55), including a Super Bowl, but I think he would have had a mutiny on his hands next year, as many players had very strong feelings towards him.  Gruden will be able to win somewhere else; he just needs a change of scenery.

The Buccaneers wasted no time promoting freshly promoted Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris (he'd only been on the job 3 weeks, replacing long-time DC Monte Kiffen) to head coach.  Morris was the Secondary coach for the Bucs for the past 2 seasons, and seems to be a very good choice amongst Tampa Fans.  It also is scaring the competition.  From Dave the Falconer, head writer at The Falcoholic:

You've just added a couple wins I believe

And if the new guys go in the right direction, you’ll have a young quarterback to groom and some new playmakers on offense. Given that your defense was already hellish, I can’t imagine that’s a good thing.

Also joining the new coaching staff are former BC Head Coach Jeff Jagodzinski as their Offensive Coordinator, and hiring former Denver assistant Jim Bates as Defensive Coordinator.  Jagodzinski is a pretty good hire, as Matt Ryan made him look pretty good this season.  Bates I'm not a fan of.  MTD writer BigBlueShoe shares my opinion on the Bates defense:

Denver's system, designed by former-Dolphin defensive coordinator Jim Bates, relies on big, fat, slow DTs to take on two or more blockers and quick, fast, and tall DEs to shoot upfield. It requires heavy d-line rotation, but QBs like Manning, Brady, and Palmer kill these defenses because they simply don't allow you to substitute.

Along with the promotion of former Pro Personnel Director Mark Dominik to General Manager, the Bucs went young at all the key positions on the coaching staff/front office.  I'm not sure why they didn't do the same with Bates.  This also means they'll (most likely) move away from the Tampa 2 defense, which is kind of named after the team.  I'm not sold on this move, as the defense did not need fixing, and hasn't needed fixing for 10 years.  Why change things up?  The only way this makes sense? Go get this guy.  Otherwise it's a completely unnecessary move.

A disappointing finish caused a huge shake-up in the Tampa organization, which, as a whole, will be a good thing for the Bucs.  Some help in the draft at some key areas will definitely be needed, especially with a (possibly) new defensive scheme.  Expectations won't be as high in 2009, but they could have a pretty good team.

(With many thanks to DaveTheFalconer from The falcoholic.com who provided the framework for us to start with.  Most of the information in this article is from him.)

2008 was a good year for Atlanta.  NFL fans who aren't close to Atlanta had a few things running through their minds at the start of 2008:

1. This team was recently abandoned by their coach,

2. This team was recently abandoned by their QB,

3. This team had some locker room issues (see Hall to Oakland).

Those fans might have thought Atlanta would be visiting the basement.  But the team featured a star young QB, and played their hearts out.  Having dodged what could have been a terrible year, Atlanta has placed themselves in a position where they can approach the draft needing a few key players instead of blowing up the roster.

Let's take a look at the construct as it currently stands: 

Continue reading this post »

I'll start my NFC South profiles with the team who finished in 4th place, the New Orleans Saints.  The Saints finished at 8-8, tying the Redskins for best record of a team finishing in last place in their division.  Let's take a look at the Saints' upcoming draft picks (table on right).

The Saints have the fewest draft picks in this year's draft, with only 3 4.  They spent their 3rd Round pick for Jonathan Vilma, which would convert to a 1st if they re-sign him before he becomes a free agent (which they won't be doing). UPDATE: The Saints will get back a 4th rounder from the Jets, that the Jets got last season.  Thanks to MtnExile for the info. They traded their 6th round pick to the Packers last year for their 7th round pick (Adrian Arrington).

That brings us to their 2nd and 5th round picks, which were traded to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey.  To put it nicely, this was an awful trade for the Saints.  Shockey only played in 12 games, had less than 500 yards receiving (with a QB who threw for over 5000 yards), and 0 touchdowns.  Doesn't sound like a guy who's worth 2 draft picks, including a 2nd rounder.  But don't just take my word on it:  Here's what Saintsational, head writer at Canal Street Chronicles, had to say about the trade:

Shockey was a waste this season and Dr. Baden could take him or leave him. The Saints offense would have been just fine without him and the second and fifth round draft picks the Saints gave up to get him would be much more valuable to the team right now moving forward.

I've combined rankings for the Saints based on game stats, and from Football Outsiders.  Here's how the Saints stacked up this season:

It's clearly obvious that the Saints don't have too many problems on offense, as they have the best offense based on DVOA, as well as Passing Offense, Total Offense, and Scoring Offense.  A lot of these great rankings come from 2008 Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees.  They also did this without 2007 leading receiver Marques Colston for a majority of the year.  The Saints' #9 ranking in Total DVOA was the highest for a non-playoff team as well, beating out divisional rivals Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

The struggles for the Saints came on the Defensive side of the ball.  There wasn't one specific area that struggled, but there wasn't one area where they were better than average either.  With so few draft picks, I'm guessing they'll use them all on defense.  They actually did improve defensively from 2007, but it still wasn't good enough to get them to the playoffs.

They have already taken the first step in trying to improve the defense, firing Defensive Coordinator Gary Gibbs (complete with a Saved by the Bell reference).  I think the fans are happy, and maybe had a part in it.  From Saintsational again:

Holy crap I can't believe they really did it. The Saints actually fired Gary Gibbs...I am freaking out! This is like one of those things that you dream about and always wish would happen but you never actually think it's really possible. It's like we, the fans, willed it to happen. Kinda feel bad actually.

Gibbs' replacement?  Former Redskin and Jaguar Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams.  I'm not entirely sold on this choice.  The Jaguars didn't like him very much this season, and he was passed over in '07 to be Joe Gibbs' replacement with the Redskins, even though he had a "hand-shake" deal to become the head coach after Gibbs retired.  Saints fans seem to like the choice, but I think they could have done better. 

The Saints have lots of improving to do on the defensive side of the ball, and have to continue their dominance on offense.  I won't have too many picks to screw up for them over the next couple months.