
John Morgan
Feb 12, 2008 Sep 07, 2008 848 3249
I once watched Mandrills do it at the zoo. My wife was fascinated, couldn't look away. Before coitus, the male was manic, vocal and bashing the shit out of a monster truck tire. After, he sat against the back wall scratching his belly. He attempted to walk towards the throng but only got a few steps before collapsing on his ass again. The female climbed the feux-forest lattice works and hung her ass out to dry.
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Quick Cap: Bills 34 - Seahawks 10
I'm not the smartest guy in the world. I sure as shit ain't anything else. And when you kinda suck, you bust your ass `cause that's all you got. That's what no one can give you and no one can take away.
But when you're talented, and skilled, and deep and you've sailed atop your success wondering why no one notices you - you're my enemy. You're the scum of the earth.
I hope that's exactly how Seattle feels right now. Like the worst Goddamn team in the NFL, because it's going to take the determination of the born loser to recover from this utterly shameful performance.
One unit showed today - and GODDAMN RIGHT they were still laying hits in the 4th. Seattle's defense is fine. Good job, you're excused.
Seattle's offense deserves the three headed rancor of Mike Ditka, Vince Lombardi and Joe Paterno. To be so easily solved by the simplest and oldest tactic in the defensive playbook, the blitz, and to not make adjustments until game over in the fourth quarter is proof of lax preparation and an attitude of defeat. Let's face it, once again Mike Holmgren was overmatched and outcoached by a young defensive coordinator. Watching Buffalo's defense stand and mill about the line presnap and Seattle incapable of responding, it was Pittsburgh all over again. Modern tactics defusing a now ancient offense.
But it was special teams that lost today's game. My expert analysis: I think firing Bruce DeHaven is perfectly justifiable. Should Seattle and will it fix their special teams? Probably not. Probably. But all the long snappers in the world can't fix bad angles on coverage, complete obliviousness on a Pop Warner fake field goal, and stupid, greedy, game deciding return play. Josh Wilson returned the ball like he could win it all with another five yards.
And yet...
I'm not the least discouraged about this team. I know they are better than this. And I believe, Goddammit I have to believe, that every ounce of arrogance and entitlement just got beat out of them. And come next Sunday they will play as hard as the worst team in football.
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Game Thread: Seahawks @ Bills 2
First Half Cap:
Seattle is winning important matchups but is losing badly on play calling. Second half adjustment will decide this game.
Mike Holmgren must anticipate blitzes. The Bills have gotten free defenders with ease and working from a lead, have little reason not to continue blitzing. The adjustments are simple. First, keep Julius Jones in on most touches. Morris has been largely responsible for allowing two separate sacks on Hasselback and has not progresses in his blitz recognition. Get John Carlson more involved over the middle. Keeping a tight end in is a natural blitz retarder and, today, Carlson is Seattle's most consistent receiver. Further, Poz has not shown good recognition in coverage and with Whitner playing close, Seattle needs to attack the deep-middle. Draws, outside runs and screens must be involved in a healthy 2nd half attack. Seattle must stop ineffectually pounding the middle.
The defense is keeping Seattle in this. The front four is getting excellent pressure. Seattle has shied away from blitzing, and I think that's the right read. Trust the defense, it can't help the field position that the offense and special teams have burdened it with. Bryant needs more looks at the 3. Though limited and rough, the team cannot afford Craig Terrill seeing so many snaps, especially not in the second half, when the Bills will look to run often and unrelentingly.
Seattle has played very poorly. They look uncoordinated and sloppy, but they are winning the talent game - mostly. Again, adjustments decide this game.
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Game Thread: Seahawks @ Bills
Bills Annotated Depth Chart
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Reed 2007 Catch% |
2007 Catch%
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Langston Walker 2007 ALY:LT |
Dockery 2007 Starts: 4 |
Fowler |
Butler 2007 Starts:2 |
Chambers Career Games |
2007 Catch% |
Lee 2007 Catch% |
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Edwards 2007 |
Lynch |
Defense after the bump.
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Field Gulls Podcast: Seahawks @ Bills Game Preview
I played it a little loose in the preseason, but today we step it up. The Field Gulls podcast will be info packed as we discuss scenarios, matchups and what to watch for to get a feel for this team's potential. Podcast starts at 1 PST. Call-ins are always welcome.
Phone Number: (724) 444-7444
Call ID: 23576
Can you feel it? Less than 24 hours. My life is in turmoil and all I can think is Seahawks, Seahawks, Seahawks. Must be the mono-mania. Let's show our championship stripes. Let's slaughter Buffalo.
For some reason it didn't like my intro music and I don't come in for like ten seconds. I mean, The Walkmen might be overblown, but The Rat is a hell of a song.
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Matchupalooza: Seahawks @ Bills: From The Franchise To New Money
Walter Jones versus Aaron Schobel
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| If Jones keeps him square and his left shoulder in, Shobel won't show bull. |
In 2007, Jones sat out the entire preseason. He would record his six worst quarters of football to start the season. In 2008, Jones saw extensive, terrifying action in August. He should be in game shape and moreover at game speed. That's good, because in many ways Schobel is exactly the type of end that gives Jones fits. As a pass rusher, Schobel is part edge rusher, part Kerney-esque hustle until the lineman quits. Jones doesn't quit - unless you can get outside his left shoulder. In 2007, Jones' sacks allowed occurred when pass rushers, through sheer quickness or an aggressive outside move, positioned themselves outside his left shoulder. Jones, 34, incapable of taking strong pain medication and plagued by chronic shoulder problems, protectively disengages his pass blocking when pass rushers can leverage their body against his outstretched left arm. For Jones to succeed against Schobel, he must be in midseason form mirror sliding, thereby keeping Schobel square. He must also overpower Schobel, disorient him enough on his initial pop to keep Schobel from hustling outside left on longer developing plays.
The other half of this matchup is Jones' ability to dominate Schobel run blocking. Schobel is well known for his ability to contribute run tackles, but that ability and the ability to hold the point are not one and the same. Seattle should attempt to attack the Bills on the edge, away from their (on paper) stout defensive tackles and outside Paul Posluszny's range. If Jones can bully Schobel in, use him to pick Kyle Williams and John McCargo, Mike Wahle can pull without fear of losing inside containment. If Jones doesn't bully Schobel, Chris Spencer/Steve Vallos may not be able to single block Willams/McCargo, and the Seahawks will shy away from potentially aborted sweeps and off tackle rushes.
Leroy Hill versus Marshawn Lynch
This matchup challenges Hill to take on what could be one of the better pass blocking backs in the NFL. A combination of an ankle injury and the loss of Jason Peters had the Bills keeping Lynch in more late last season, and with Peters out they may do likewise on Sunday. Like most rookies, Lynch wasn't a great blocker to start, but with a strong reputation at Cal and an emphasis on improvement in the offseason, I expect Lynch to make that jump this season.
This matchup is not of the "this guy's taller than this guy, so this guy will win the jump ball" crayon stuck in brain simplicity. Instead, it's dynamic and dependent on many variables. For one, Lynch may not even be the man to block Hill. Seattle frequently uses Lofa Tatupu as a kind of fullback on blitzes, punishing the lead blocker and blowing a hole for Hill to explode through. Second, Hill winning this matchup is as much about Hill's quickness and Lynch's read as Hill's strength and Lynch's blocking. John Marshall loves discordant blitzes that attempt to get a man free to the quarterback. Hill may win this matchup without even encountering Marshawn. Doing so will mean execution by the team and execution by Hill. On a veiled blitz, Marshall often attempts to hide Hill, not blitzing him until the last moment. This is one of Hill's greatest strengths and one way he should still be able to beat the inexperienced Lynch. That is, fool Lynch into reading wrong, blocking right (typically) and then outsprinting Lynch to the quarterback.
John Carlson versus Donte Whitner
Like Bob Sanders, Donte Whitner likes to start plays close to the line. And like Bob Sanders, Whitner can do that because he has rare speed and athleticism. Whitner sitting underneath is a recipe for a stunted running game and a broken wide receiver corps. In a Tampa 2 style defense, the flashpoint is deep-middle, between the safeties. High functioning Tampa 2s feature a middle linebacker who can supplement coverage between the safeties. For all his in the box prowess, Paul Posluszny was not a great pass defender at Penn State, and playing in just his fourth game in the NFL, will not singlehandedly remove the deep-middle on Sunday. Instead, Buffalo, suddenly debilitated at linebacker and facing a team determined to establish its running game, should keep Poz shallow and lean on Whitner to do the heavy lifting in coverage.
Seattle needs John Carlson and to a lesser extent Jeb Putzier to threaten the middle and keep Whitner from sitting on routes underneath. Purely from a geometric standpoint, deep-middle is also Matt Hasselbeck's best chance to complete deep passes. Beck is a maestro on short and intermediate passes, setting the tempo, cueing his soloist and shaping Seattle's passing attack. Beck is a meatball on deep passes, chucking ducks and hoping for busted coverage. But the deep middle, bearing no horizontal length, is one place Beck can get the ball 30 yards downfield with authority. An early completion to Carlson up the seam will do wonders for catch and run receivers Nate Burleson and Courtney Taylor. Allowing them to efficiently carve up the underneath and interior. The plodding, relentless almost zombie-like amassing of pass yards that make up the backbone of the Bill Walsh offense is essential to the explosive, phenomenal almost roman candle-like runs that make up the color and life of the Mike Holmgren offense.
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Aaron Schobel's sacks dropped last season. At 31, it wouldn't be surprising if the once great edge rusher has simply lost a step. How did he look to you? Does he project to rebound? And can you tell us what he does well and what doesn't do well.
Schobel looked like Schobel last year - strong at the point of attack, made strong reads, was easily the best defender on the team. His trouble last year was that opponents finally figured out that they could get away with double-teaming him, because the Bills certainly weren't going to get a consistent pass rush from the rest of their defensive linemen. The result was that Schobel was the one defender that opponents game-planned for, leading to plenty of attention and very little help for Buffalo's highest-paid player. Clearly, the team is expecting the arrival of guys like Marcus Stroud, Spencer Johnson and rookie end Chris Ellis to deepen the line and take some pressure off of Schobel. I don't expect a return to 2006 form, when he registered 14.5 sacks, but double digits is certainly not out of the question.
Schobel's a good edge rusher, but he doesn't have a huge array of pass rush moves - he picks up most of his sacks on sheer effort. That's not a bad thing, but he's never been the dominant force that his numbers say he is. Even though he weighs just 243 pounds, he's excellent against the run because he plays with such good leverage. The older he gets, the smarter he gets - and though I don't think he's lost a step, he should still be a pretty good player when he does. Basically, he does everything well, but nothing well enough to make him a truly dominant player. -Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings
2 days ago
John Morgan
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Seattle @ Buffalo: Losing Up The Middle, Winning On The Edges
"Adrian Beltre has been awful."
I have this friend at work. Cool guy. Studying to be a math teacher. We talk sports when we can. Today, I mentioned that I thought the Mariners were run a bit like Nintendo: Esoteric, not overtly competitive but ruthlessly profitable. He brought up some of their stupid free agent signings. I thought: Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, Richie Sexson, but no, Adrian Beltre.
It then occurred to me, not only can I refute that claim, but it's provably false. Think about that. Provably false.
That ability doesn't exist in football. Even a player as unproductive as Alex Smith has semi-legitimate excuses. I cannot prove Alex Smith hasn't suffered from playing under multiple offensive coordinators. I can't. I can be skeptical. I can consider that fact as relatively minor, but inevitably I'm making a judgment.
That's what I love most about football. Anyone above the dregs of the bell curve can read a chart and know the value of Albert Pujols or Adrian Beltre. It, then, requires no critical thinking. It's literal. A player hits a homerun or not. A player walks or not. Projecting future performance is a little harder, but not much. Marcel has proven how far simple regression can go, and how little advanced models improve accuracy. But how valuable is Marcus Stroud? Does anyone know?
What then can we say about Statapalooza? Is it really instructive to list the Bills' DVOA against #1 receivers when I'm not even sure who Seattle's #1 receiver is? Much less, why the Bills play well against #1 receivers. I realized late last season that any accuracy found within Statapalooza was incidental. What's that logical fallacy? Proof by verbosity? So I retired it. Instead, a holistic approach, considering personnel, statistics and scheme.
So here's my admission of ignorance. I don't know if the Bills will be good against the run. I do know that according to a pretty reliable tool, they ranked 13th last season. How will they play against the Seahawks? Let's see if I can make an educated guess.
We start with a 13th ranked unit. We add Paul Posluszny and Marcus Stroud. Because of injury, we subtract Angelo Crowell. What do those players contribute?
Posluszny is considered a great run stopping linebacker that has trouble shedding blockers. One way that might be expressed is lots of tackles, but few successful tackles. In just 2+ games, Poz recorded 20 tackles against the run, 11 were after successful rushes, 9 were after unsuccessful rushes. Though a small sample, that's in line with the above: active run stopper; often chasing the rusher. In that sense, Poz plays a bit like Lofa Tatupu did his first two seasons.
A big part of masking Tatupu's early problems shedding blockers was getting a big body in the middle that could absorb blocks. Stroud replaces recent Seahawks cut-ee, Larry Tripplett. The 2007 Jaguars, though a poor overall rush defense, did allow runs of 10+ yards on only 7% of all plays. The Bills, a better overall rush defense, but saddled with the easily blocked Tripplett, allowed runs on 21% of all plays.
Even if Stroud is incapable of reaching his former level, he should improve the Bills' ability to prevent long runs and help Posluszny make more successful run tackles. That's a net positive and I think Buffalo will greatly improve its ability to stuff runs up the middle. I don't foresee much success for Seattle at running up the middle. Draws are a possible exception, relying largely on surprise, the success of a draw can be tough to predict. But on runs behind center and both guards, I think Buffalo will more than holds its own.
What Stroud won't affect, at least not on Sunday, is the Bills ability to stop rushes to the outside. Looking at the Bills last season, they were remarkable at stopping runs around left end. First in the NFL, allowing only 1.5 adjusted line yards per rush. I don't buy it.
Aaron Schobel mans their right defensive end spot. Schobel, just 243 pounds, is decidedly of the light/fast edge rusher profile. Now 31, a player so reliant on his quickness, it's reasonable to think Schobel is firmly entrenched in decline. His 6.5 sacks in 2007 tie with his rookie season for lowest of his career. Though much has been made of the Bills defensive decline, the unit was almost on par with the 2006 unit, and was head and shoulders about the 2005 unit. On each, Schobel recorded double digit sacks.
For Seattle, the offensive left is almost exclusively their "weakside". Therefore, the Bills should line Kawika Mitchell over Schobel. Mitchell, on his third team in three years, is a good run stopper, but more in a downhill vein. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris rushed 34 times in the preseason, 11 to the end or tackle, 9 to the left end or tackle. I expect Seattle to attack the edges with sweep rushes, pulling Mike Wahle and using Walter Jones' ability to seal off Schobel to get Morris and Jones a free release to the outside. From there, Mitchell will attempt to stunt or shed Wahle, retard Morris/Jones and hope Posluszny or Donte Whitner will be able to shoot in and tackle the rusher.
Now we talk about Crowell. The drop from Angelo Crowell to Keith Ellison is complete. He's a worse run stopper, worse in coverage and worse blitzing. The easiest way to hide Ellison is give him support. Given that Ellison will be playing on the strong side, the team should simply instruct Whitner to "stay at home". That is, keep "strong" to protect against cutbacks and screen passes and lean more on Mitchell. I think that will, to an extent, minimize his contributions on the strong side. That leaves Wahle to stop Mitchell from tackling Jones/Morris and more importantly, Wahle to stop Mitchell from retarding the rush and allowing Posluszny to track down Jones/Morris from the backside.
It's an early test for Wahle. Last season, his pull blocking contributed to Carolina's 3rd ranked run blocking on rushes off the left offensive end. It's a test I think Wahle will pass, and I think running outside, especially the outside left, will power Seattle's rushing attack.
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Buffalo appears to have a young, talented but anonymous defense. What is its potential and who are its stars?
That's a very fair assessment. My problem with this defense is that I think they're young at the wrong positions - their defensive line is very veteran, with only a few young players with potential. They're not very fast, either, which is a necessity in a Cover 2 defense. As they stand right now as a unit, however, this defense is playoff caliber. They've got a deep nine-man rotation on the defensive line, big, tough, active linebackers, and a heck of a young secondary. This unit has the potential to be a Top 10 unit in 2008, and could be dominant in another year or two if, unlike 2007, they can stay healthy.The biggest defensive star right now is obviously Marcus Stroud, the elite defensive tackle the team acquired from Jacksonville via trade in March. His impact has been immediate, as Buffalo's first-team run defense was superb during the pre-season. Buffalo hasn't ever had a defensive tackle of his caliber or type - he's in the best shape of his life, and it's showed. But as you alluded to, Buffalo has a young defense, and young defenses generally produce stars. The guy on the cusp of becoming elite is strong safety Donte Whitner. Built in the same mold as Bob Sanders, he's not as physical, but can still lay a hit. He's versatile, with the ability to play either safety position or line up in the slot, and he's without doubt the leader of not just this defense, but the entire team. He's a good young player who hasn't produced much in his first two seasons. I expect that to change in a big way in 2008. - Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings
3 days ago
John Morgan
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Hawks @ Bills Game Preview by Doug Farrar
Doug Farrar will be contributing game previews this season for the Seattle Times. You can find his first here. Before I move on, this line kills me.
They're the folks that predicted a precipitous drop in Shaun Alexander's production after the Super Bowl season, the ones who pointed out that all the numbers pointed against a bounce-back season in 2007 and the guys who found that it would be a minor miracle if Marcus Pollard could contribute given his age.
So that would make them 1 for 3?
Anyway, Doug is the man and it's good to see something smart penetrating the mainstream. Now, I have my quibbles with a LOT of this, paramount that this article is essentially comparing last year's Seahawks with last year's Bills. But that's okay. I'll exorcise my quibbles in this afternoon's Statapalooza - The Return!
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