1972 was a special year for the NFL. It was the third season after the merger between the AFL and NFL and the electricity of competition was everywhere. No parity, no free agency, just emerging dynasties and an awaking fan base. The Miami Dolphins were marching through everyone on their way to the only undefeated season. The Dallas Cowboys were awakening, and the Pittsburgh Steelers and Oakland Raiders were emerging as new powerhouse teams. Their Steeler/Raider bloodbath of a playoff game that year still remains unresolved. John Madden still can’t believe that Franco Harris touchdown was allowed to stand. He wanted his shot at the Dolphins and that 1972 Super Bowl. Just ask Pete Banaszak, he was there. But 1972 was special for one other reason; it marked the return of Lou Saban to the Buffalo Bills.

 If you think Nick Saban walks away from teams, his cousin Lou was much worse. He could and did walk away from teams in a heartbeat. He is still hated by Ralph Wilson, owner of the Buffalo Bills. Lou Saban coached Buffalo from 1962 through 1965 and was the only coach in the AFL to deliver back to back championships. He believed in basic football, "run the ball, stop the run". His 1964 team featured Jack Kemp as quarterback, Daryl Lamonica as backup and Cookie Gilchrist at fullback running for 1,000 yards in a 12 game season. His shut down defense, running attack and the ability to send Daryl Lamonica in to throw deep is still the winning formula. Ralph Wilson and the city of Buffalo were still celebrating their second AFL Championship in 1965 when Lou Saban announced his resignation to go coach the University of Maryland. Ralph Wilson was set to make him the highest paid coach in the AFL but instead was left feeling betrayed and furious. The city was broken hearted. But now it was 1972, the long losing spell had washed away the hard feelings and he was back. Hope had returned. Lou Saban immediately began building the greatest running attack ever unleashed on the NFL.

When he arrived in 1972, he found little of the championship team he left. The team had been horribly mismanaged gaining only 13 wins in the previous 5 years. He found OJ Simpson on special teams running back kickoffs and barely used in the offense. "I believe in running the ball, basic, hard-nosed football," Saban said. "We have a great runner, a game breaker, who is a big-play athlete. I intend to use him." Lou called Jim Ringo, an offensive lineman from the Lombardi era Packers, to come and coach the line and then went off looking for talent. He called the NY Jets and traded for Dave Foley a former 1st round draft choice with three years experience. He drafted Reggie McKenzie in the second round and put him immediately in the lineup. OJ Simpson gained over 1,200 yards in 1972 and the Bills managed 4 wins. That season showed the possibility to Reggie McKenzie who began proclaiming a vision of a season no one had ever seen. Lou Saban and Jim Ringo volunteered to coach the Senior Bowl to get a firsthand look at the draft prospects. They drafted Joe DeLamielleure in the first round. They traded with the New England Patriots for guard Mike Montler and told him he was the new starting center. Jim Ringo gathered the new offensive line, McKenzie, Foley, Montler, DeLamielleure, and tackle Donnie Green, and had them hit the blocking sled until they dropped every day. Training camp was brutal as told by Reggie McKenzie.

The 1973 season was ready. Reggie McKenzie continued to talk about the 2,000 yard season, but after the Bills lost all six preseason games, hope diminished. It was good that the first game was away at the New England Patriots. When the Bills offensive line ripped off 360 yards rushing with Simpson gaining 250, people began to believe. By mid-season the Bills offensive line had accumulated 1,528 yards rushing and Simpson was over 1,000. On the last game of the year everyone tuned in. Simpson needed 61 yards to break Jim Brown’s single season record and 197 to hit 2,000. Reggie McKenzie guaranteed it.

When the season was over, the statistics were unbelievable, over 3,000 yards rushing, 220 yards per game, 6 yards per attempt. OJ Simpson had 2,003 yards and 143 yards per game. 35 years later, the average per game records still stand, no one has come close. Only the 1978 New England Patriots put up more rushing yards in one year, only the second team to ever generate 3,000+ rushing. The Bills won 9 games that year.

When looking at the film, the thing that stands out is the line surge. When they ran up the middle, OJ just stood there and waited, he could walk five yards straight ahead. The bread and butter play was sweep right. Left guard Reggie McKenzie would pull. Joe D would surge and bottle everyone up in the middle of the field. By the time Reggie got over there, he was looking for someone to hit. OJ went behind Reggie and waited for him to clear giant holes. The play was a minimum 10 yards.

Watch it yourself.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TomvQ4Nk3k&feature=related

The moral of the story is, if you dedicate to running the ball, you must dedicate to the offensive line. The power of talent that believes in something is incredible. This line didn’t play together for years and didn’t have a lot of experience. One rookie and one second year guy made the difference. An offensive line can be built quickly and effectively, but not by drafting receivers and giving away draft choices.

In 1975, Lou Saban proclaimed his Buffalo team ready to challenge for a Super Bowl. Key injuries, over expectations and under-performances caused a downfall. In 1976, Lou Saban walked out again. Jim Ringo took over the team but a 2 and 12 season sealed his fate. Lou Saban took over the Miami Hurricanes and convinced Jim Kelly to come. He coached him for two years before walking out. Jim Kelly led the Buffalo Bills to four AFC Championships where his and Marv Levy’s name are on the Wall of Fame, no mention of Lou Saban. Lou Saban is 80 years old and is still coaching in South Carolina. Hey, I have an idea…..

A fictional set of press releases

Jack Del Rio announced he will have off season surgery to remove his cranium from his colon.  Doctors said his head got logged after he signed his new contract extension and they had to wait until the swelling went down before they could schedule the procedure. Jack Del Rio further stated he wished to thank the doctors for finding out the cause of his blindness.

Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams announced he will leave the Jacksonville Jaguars and become the defensive coordinator for both the San Diego Chargers and the Denver Broncos.   His agent, in explaining the unprecedented move, said “both teams felt they needed only a half-ass defense to be successful, so Greg will spend half his time with each club”.

Matt Jones agent announced his client is holding out the 2009 season until he receives a new contract somewhere around “Larry Fitzgerald range”. In explaining the request his agent said “Now that Matt has achieved elite status as a receiver, he deserves to be paid as such”. The press conference was cut short as extended periods of laughter erupted upon which his agent said, “I’m getting him out of here”.

The team announced they had forgotten to mention that Reggie Williams had announced his retirement prior to the 2008 season.  The times in which he wore the uniform during the season were only ceremonious and apologized for any misunderstanding.   

Jack Harris announced the Jaguars Christmas program in which he will give away all of the 2009 draft selections.  In the announcement Shack said “Giving without expecting anything in return brings out the best in me”. 

Mike Tice announced a charity event in which he would throw footballs to Marcedes Lewis and donate $100 for every pass caught.  A team spokesperson quickly interrupted the announcement saying the organization actually does give to charity.   

Jack Del Rio has sent the message that the turnaround of the Jaguars is about to begin and change is coming.  To me, the real question is can Jack correctly diagnose the problem?  Can he fix situations or just fix blame?   Is he an elite Head Coach or not?   Where will he go, offense or defense? This will be very interesting to follow as it unfolds. 

We can all offer opinions on what should be done, but sometimes facts point to a different solution.  Let's focus on defense for a moment. When a defense takes the field it seeks to minimize the opponents yards gained.  A good defense stops the opposing offense from going anywhere.  The fewer yards allowed, the fewer points.  Not all points scored in a game are the defense's fault, but all offensive yards are.

In a season, there are 256 games played with 256 wins and 256 losses. In the 2005 season, the 256 winning teams defense allowed an average of 291 yards. The 256 losing teams defense allowed an average of 341 yards.  50 yards a game on average decided victory or defeat,  These statistics are remarkable consistent year over year. 

2005 winners allowed 291 yards, losers allowed 341. 2006 winners allowed 298 yards, losers allowed 345. 2007 winners allowed 296 yards, losers allowed 353. First half of 2008, winners allowed 290 yards, losers allowed 359.  In short, when your defense is allowing 300 yards a game or less, you are probably in the playoff hunt.  If you are allowing 350 yards or more, you are probably sitting home watching. Exceptions exist, but not many.

The 2008 Jaguars first 7 games allowed an average of 339 yards. In the last 4 games they have allowed an average of 284 yards.  If Reggie Nelson gets one more step and knocks the ball away once in the Tennessee game, the average of the last 4 would drop to 273.  In comparison, the top defensive team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, allow 240 yards a game.  It is hard to move against the Steelers.  It has become harder to move against the Jaguars. The great Tennessee 2008 defense is allowing 280 yards a game.

Here is the point, Greg Williams is beginning to turn this defense into a very good defense.  Despite what you want to believe or how much you hate what happened in the early part of the season, Greg Williams is beginning to turn this defense into a very good defense.  This despite NO PASS RUSH.  You give Greg Williams one or two more sacks a game and this defense will sparkle, a top 5 defense. The man is trying to work miracles. I see a defense that has come on since Daryl Smith took over the middle.  If you look closely at each Jaguar game in 2008 you will find that if the defense stops just one third or fourth down play, the average yards allowed drops under 300 and we are in the playoff hunt.  Tennessee, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnati all had one third or fourth down play that went for 44 or 33 or 18 or 51 yards and each time that play made the difference. Those missed assignments or missed tackles need to be looked at. The secondary will be evaluated, the defensive line will be evaluated. (A certain second round DE with a quick flinch that draws the off sides flag should be talked to.)  The defensive coordinator, in my view, is more than fine.   

But we lost 3 of the last 4 games. The defense didn't come through, you might say.  No, look to an offense that has completely fallen apart recently.  5 turnovers againt the Vikings and no production in generating points has been the problem.   Look no further than holding penalties and quarterback sacks to see an offensive line with issues, especially at tackle.  Look no further than a HOF candidate running back down 50% in production this year to recognize offensive line problems. (By the way, he is a man of immense class, never once throwing anyone under the bus) Look no further than a quarterback becoming the season rushing leader to see offensive line problems. Look at a quarterback who won't throw deep downfield to see a man who doesn't think he has time to set and throw (or someone to throw to).   (Look to a first round tight end that generates more penalties than points to see another improvement opportunity. When a QB is running for his life, his TE should be somewhere to be found)  The front office ignoring the offensive line is an area of weakness.  Bill Parcells, Jeff Fisher, Bill Polian typically don't ignore that area like we do.  I know we got injured, but we haven't invested either.  Right now Ryan Clandy would contribute more than a nameless rich first round holdout....(sorry) 

When Jack starts his evaluation, if he attacks Greg Williams then in my opinion he went the wrong way.  If he signals an emphisis on offensive line rebuilding, then he has started down the right road.  I think Jack knows the right path. I think Greg Williams is the right DC.  It will be interesting to watch.  I wish I were watching the Jaguars  playoffs this year, but it isn't to be and this is still our team and how it moves on is fascinating.  Just my opinion. 

In an earlier post, I mentioned a computer model I had written to predict football scores. I thought it was time to dust it off and see what it says about the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars.  I actually didn’t invent the model, but can’t remember the source, so if you invented it, my apologies for not acknowledging you.

The model is simple.  It is based on how efficient a team offense is at scoring, verses how stingy the opposing defense is.  Scoring efficiency is measured by yards per point.  If a team generates 200 yards of offense and scores 20 points, they score, on average, one point for every 10 yards of offense. If the same team only scores 10 points, then they require 20 yards of offense to score the same single point. This makes a certain sense. A team that moves 70 yards and scores a touchdown is more efficient at scoring than a team that marches 50 yards, stalls and kicks a field goal.

Once you know the team scoring efficiency, then you compare it to the opponents defensive yards allowed.  If your team scores one point every 15 yards and the opposition allows 300 yards per game, then you reasonably expect to generate 20 points in that game.

In 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a scoring efficiency of 13.91 yards per point.  This was the 8th most efficient offense.  Tom Brady and Randy Moss had an efficiency of 11.17.  If both teams played the Detroit Lions, who allowed an average of 377 yards, The Jaguars would put up 27 points, while the Patriots would put up 34 points.  Three yards of scoring efficiency is a lot.

The 2007 Jaguars defense allowed an average of 313 yards of offense every game and ranked the 12th stingiest defense.  The Patriots allowed 288 per game.  So if the Jaguars played the Patriots, the score would be Patriots 28, Jaguars 21.  The Titans allowed 291 yards per game and the Colts allowed 280 yards per game.  The Titans weren’t efficient at scoring, the Colts were.

When the model was played out over the 2007 season, the Jaguars were predicted to have an 11-4-1 record with Tampa Bay a tie.  The model was close to the actual 11-5 finish.  So what does the model say about the 2008 Jaguars?

First, based on the 8 games played, if the Jaguars returned in 2008 with the same scoring efficiency (13.91) and defense (313 per game) as 2007, they would post a 9-7 season record.  The first revealing fact is that the opponents this season are much better than last season.  The Jaguars needed to be on top of their game to navigate this year into the playoffs.

Second, the scoring efficiency has dropped from 13.91 yds/pt to 15.63.  Against an average team, that about 3 points a game. 

Third, the defense has dropped from allowing 313 yards a game to 335 yards per game.  Doesn’t sound like much, but it is about 2 points per game allowed.  The model says these numbers would have delivered a 7-9 record last year.  The 2008 Jaguars are closer to the Cincinnati Bengals (17 yds/pt, 331 yds allowed) than we care to admit.

Bottom line, the model says the Jaguars could bottom out at 4-12.  The Detroit game is a lock, then close games against the Colts and Texans and a slight chance against the Vikings.  The Bears game is a blow out.

For the Jaguars to win 10 games this year means a lock down defense allowing a league leading 240 yards per game.   The other way is to develop a Brady-like offense of 11.17 yards per point.  A return of the 2007 Jaguars can still deliver an 8-8 season.

In the earlier post I mentioned a reason to smile.  I still believe that.  The improvements in offense and defense will come and the Jaguars will move up again.  This was simply a very tough year with major blows delivered early.       

I remember writing a program on my Commodre 64 computer that could predict football scores.  It was a decent program, but more than that, it showed me something about football I didn't know. The 1983 Chicago Bears, it told me, were much better than the 8-8 season they were posting and might be on the verge of greatness.  The 1983 Bears were always in close games. They lost 5 games by 7 points or less, and 4 of them by 3 points or less.  They won 5 games by 7 points or less, 3 of them by 3 points or less. The Bears were fighting hard every game, but hadn't found a way to win, not yet.  Of course in 1984 they went 11-5 and in 1985 they posted an almost perfect season of 15-1. Dan Marino beat them on Monday night football. The 1985 Chicago Bears are considered one of the great teams ever.

What I learned was that first a championship team learns how to put up a good fight before they learn how to win.  Consider the 2002 Indianapolis Colts.  They started the year 4-4, finished 10-6 with 6 wins by 7 points or less, 3 of them by 3 points or less.  They were fighting but barely winning and got blown out badly in the playoffs.  2003, 11-5, 2004, 12-4, 2005, 14-2, 2006 Super Bowl.  Oh yea, the team that knocked them out in 2004 and 2005, the New England Patriots. In 2002, they learned not to quit. That was the gift Tony Dungy brought them.  That attitude delivered the victories soon after.

So how about the New England Patriots in the Bill Bellichek era?  The 2000 NE Patriots, coach Bellichek's first year, they went 5-11.  Two of the wins by 3 points or less, one by 7 or less.  They could have been 2-14 easily.  Seven of the losses were by 7 points or less and 3 of those by 3 or less.  They could have been 12-4.  Of course, after that year (excluding the strike year) 12-4 would be a bad year year for them.  In 2001 they were 11-5 and in the following years came 4 Super Bowl showings. They went through the same learning process of don't quit.

How about the greatest run of playoff appearances ever, the SF 49ers.  Starting in 1981, they showed up in the playoffs 16 out of 18 years.  How about the start of it all, Bill Walsh and the 1980 SF 49ers?  That year they were 6-10, six losses by 7 points or less, 2 of them 3 points or less.  Three of the six victories were by 3 points or less.  They could have been 3-13 or 12-4.  They were learning how to fight, but hadn't learned how to win, not yet.  That season was the start of one of the greatest teams of all time. 

So how about the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars?  Four close losses, three close wins.  In there fighting every game? Yes sir!  So let's change out all the players and all the coaches and throw away our season tickets and have a good old fashion hissey-fit.  Let's set an example of how to quit. Or maybe, let's sit back and watch Jack Del Rio build a dynasty.  Let's let this team learn how not to quit and let's stand right there with them. History shows the champions all learned how not to quit before they learned  how to win.    

This is a special year for us, let's enjoy it. Oh yea, and try to smile, everything is ok.  

With only 4 games completed in the season, there are always some very early distortions .  I thought it would be fun to comment on some I see.  Please add your own. 

Excuse me,  we are not quite sure the Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East  just yet - NE Patriots

Excuse me, has anyone noticed Denver is more lucky than good?  - San Diago Chargers

Excuse me, we actually think Lane Kiffin was doing a very good job with this team - Oakland Raiders coaches and players

Excuse me, does anyone remember Dallas didn't win the Super Bowl, we did?  - NY Giants

Excuse me, we were as surprised by that much national TV exposure as everyone else. - Cleveland Browns

and my favorite...

Excuse me, has anyone noticed this is simply the same Tennessee team this year as last year and they really weren't that hard to beat last year.  - Jacksonville Jaguars

When I look through details of what is happening to the Jaguars it seems more and more that this year is a year of learning through adversity.

Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves will learn their craft on the job.  It takes a bit of time to get productive at this position.  2008 will not be as productive as hopefully 2009 will be for them.

The real offensive line will not return healthy until next year.  New jars on the shelf will be created.  David Gerrard will learn how to read, react or run like never before.  2008 will not be an easy  year, but the lessons learned will be valuable for 2009.

Dirk Kotter wil learn how to design and execute plays with less than full talent.  Survival mode football.  He is a great coaching talent and will pick it up.

The receiving corp will have to learn how to get open quickly this year.  No room for lazy routes, your quarterback is under attack.

Greg Williams defensive schemes will become more second nature next year as he learns who he has to work with.  Donnie Henderson will learn who has the goods and who doesn't.  Hopefully beter tackling will be learned.  We will find out who can play hard as the defense will have to carry this years load. 

I can't help but feel the Jaguars have been dealt too great a blow this year to do anything but fight a hard fought uphill battle.  2009 may reap the rewards of this years trial by fire.

I am having trouble seperating hope from reality so I am asking for comments. 

It seems to me that the defense feels different this year even before any real test has been given. I sense a more personal touch in the way coaches are handling players and the players response seems to be a strongly positive.  Here is what I offer as evidence:

• Reggie Nelson called out early in OTAs as a star level athlete.  From that I watch Reggie Nelson bounce into practice sessions smiling and interacting with the fans.  He seems to have embraced his new stature.
• John Henderson looking slimmer and faster from OTAs to training camp.  No mysterious ailments keeping him off the field.
• Quinten Groves saying he will spend the time between OTAs and training camp getting special tutoring in rushing techniques then shows up in camp and begins to exceed expectations.
• Brian Williams happy and embracing his new safety role. Not only embrassing but seems to relish it.
• The idea of platooniong Gerald Sensabaugh and Brian Williams is well accepted by the both of them. Not one word of negativity.
• Reggie Hayward showing up not only ready but impressive.
• Mike Peterson declaring the beast is back.  His response to his contract situation is "I'll play harder and embarass you into giving me an extension". (I support him and think he is a great leader).
• Scott Starks is beginning to show tangible evidence of the potential they saw when drafing him. 
• Paul Spicer sits OTAs out for maybe a day and comes back to a heros welcome and re-establishes his leadership.
• Drayton Florence says nothing but others including Jack begin pointing him out.  The message given in is that Drayton was a great addition.

What I am sensing is almost every member of our defense is exhibiting leadership qualities and a sense of personal responsibility and committment to the team.  Everyone seems to be giving their best.

Creating an atmosphere for players to shine is what great coaches do.  Mike Smith did a great job building the defensive culture in Jacksonville. Donnie Henderson and Gregg Williams seem to be taking it to a new level.  Jack Del Rio  is creating an atmosphere for coaches to shine. This seems to be a wonderful combination of coaches and players and I can't help but to call out coach Henderson and coach Williams this early as having already made a big difference. 

Am I just being a silly fan living on new season hope or is there something to this?