
math_geek
Apr 05, 2008 Dec 02, 2008 17 1616
RSSUser Blog
Baltimore Ravens Week 14 Rooting Guide
While the Ravens win was great, it's safe to say that last week did not go as well as we would have hoped. Indy, Miami, and Pittsburgh all won, although we still gained some distance in the playoff hunt due to NE losing to Pittsburgh. If we could find a way to make those two play every week, that would be great. We are now essentially holding onto a 1.5 game lead for the sixth seed, with NE and Miami trailing.
1) New England @ Seattle - It's not likely to happen, but getting distance between us and New England would be huge for our playoff chances.
2) Miami @ Buffalo - Slightly less big of a deal because Buffalo is also in WC contention and has better tiebreakers, although they are a game behind. Nonetheless, i'd rather see Miami lose and let the tiebreakers fall where they may.
3) Cincinatti @ Indy - Right, this won't happen in a million years, and it will be difficult to pull ahead of Indy regardless as they have the tiebreaker and the easier schedule. However, and upset by Cincy will be a great boost at helping us pull ahead of them and get some more distance in the Wild Card race.
4) Dallas @ Pittsburgh - Obviously we really want Dallas to beat Pittsburgh, but that still doesn't help us much in the Division race. The Ravens have to win out to have a shot at the division and I don't really see that happening. Alternatively, the Steelers have to lose 3 of the next 4 games (presumably Dallas, Baltimore, and Tennesee), and while they could easily lose any of those games they are just too good of a team to lose them all. Nevertheless, a Dallas victory is probably necessary for us to win the division, but it wouldn't be close to sufficient.
5) New York Jets @ San Francisco - San Francisco was the only team that gave us help last week, knocking Buffalo back a game in the standings. The Jets probably have the division title in hand , and have worse tiebreakers with four AFC conference losses (the Ravens only have 3), but if the Jets do fall back into the Wild Card hunt for some reason, they will be the most dangerous team from the AFC East against us matchup wise. A loss to SF helps us pull ahead of them as well, but doesn't hurt their tiebreakers at all.
6) Cleveland @ Tennessee - Again, TN is clearly going to win that division, but an upset loss to Cleveland keeps them fired up to play hard in the last two weeks of the season, against Pittsburgh and Indy. It's worth something, but not much. Cleveland, incidentally, were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to Indy. We know they will be behind Baltimore, Pitt, Indy, and TN due to record and head to head tiebreakers. This also means that the Ravens by default will be the 1st or 2nd place finish in the division. Most likely second, unfortunately.
Denver will win the AFC West, and SD will come nowhere close to sniffing a WC, so we can stop thinking about those teams.
6 comments | 0 recs
7 days ago
math_geek
1 comments
0 recs
Ravens Rooting Guide Week 13
The Ravens have surprisingly found themselves in the thick of a playoff hunt. I didn't expect this at all, but at 7-4, there is no other way to define the Ravens performance this season. As such, I'll try to post a rooting guide so that people know what non-Ravens games have the most impact to the Ravens chances to get a coveted playoff spot. Most important games will be listed first.
1) Indianapolis at Cleveland - Boy oh boy have the Browns struggled this season. It caught me quite by surprise because I thought their offense would carry them through. DA might have been overrated, but Edwards dropscapades and the struggling of an offensive line that was one of the best in the NFL last year was not something that I had anticipated. Indy, of course, has recovered from a struggling start to be placed 1st in the Wild Card standings with head to head wins against Baltimore and New England, their two biggest competitors in the Wild Card standings. Look, let's be absolutely clear, we want Cleveland to win this game. Badly. Indy is going to be a really tough team to beat out for the WC due to them having the tiebreaker and a softer schedule. I don't dislike the Browns as much as some other posters around here, but I think we can all agree that Cleveland winning would be a great boost to our team's playoff chances.
2) Pittsburgh @ NE - This game is actually far more important to our standings as the Ravens will have an easier time beating out NE for a WC spot than Indy and we could easily see Bal and Indy as the two wild cards. The problem, however, is that in an ideal world, we would want both teams to lose. If Indy gets WC #5, then NE is our biggest competitor for WC #6. However, if Pittsburgh loses at NE, that gives us a reasonable chance at taking the division, as we would catch up in the standings and have a chance to put them a game behind in Baltimore. Pittsburgh will probably have tie-breakers over us, but the tie-breakers are going to be really, really close. I'm rooting for NE in this game, because it would be awesome to see the Ravens get a home playoff game, but Pitt winning may give us the best chance to make it to the playoffs.
3) Miami @ St. Louis - I think Miami wins this easily, and we have the tiebreaker over them regardless. However, an upset St. Louis win will help drive away a potential WC competitor.
4) San Francisco @ Buffalo - See #3, then replace all instances of Miami with Buffalo (minus the tiebreaker) and St. Louis with San Francisco.
5) Tennesee @ Detroit - No way TN loses to Detroit, but we should all hope that they do. On principle, it almost always helps us when an AFC competitor loses to an NFC team, even if it's only a little. There are some bizzarre tiebreaker situations, but whatever. In any case, TN losing this game doesn't actually increase our mathematical chances of reaching the playoffs, but it does increase our intangible chances, which took a big blow when TN lost to the Jets. Why? Because TN faces Pittsbugh and Indy in the final two games of the season, two of the three biggest competitors with us for a Wild Card spot. If TN was still perfect, we know they would bring their A game aginst Pitt and Indy. If TN is seen to struggle at this point, they will have to bring their A game in any case to keep their #1 seed and just in general to keep the team's attitude in shape.
6) Denver @ NY Jets - It's conceivable, although unlikely, that SD could improve and contend with Denver with one of them getting a wild card. But in actuality, we want the Jets to keep winning so that TN is fighting for the #1 seed and beats Pitt and Indy.
I think these are all the games of consequence for us (minus the most important one) Hope this keeps everyone's Thanksgiving weekend entertaining.
17 comments | 0 recs
Orioles looking at SS Cesar Itzuris
The article says that they're not interested in Furcal for price reasons, or Cabrera and Renteria because they don't want to pick up a class A free agent and give up draft picks.
Also notes that the Padres wanted to trade us Khalil Greene for Garret Olson, but the Orioles weren't interested. Khalil Greene sucks, so I don't really care.
11 days ago
math_geek
63 comments
0 recs
SI's Top 50 Free Agents
Look at Jon Garland. A 4.9 ERA and 1.5 WHIP would make him the number 2 starter. I can't believe he ended up 2 spots below Kevin Millar on this list. All in favor of taking the 29 year old mediocre starting pitcher over the 37 year old terrible 1st baseman please raise your hands.
about 1 month ago
math_geek
8 comments
0 recs
What you might see from the Baltimore Ravens
This is in no way meant to be a trash-talking post. I just thought you might like to know.
On Offense - Protecting and developing rookie QB Joe Flacco is almost as important as winning the game. This wasn't a year the Ravens planned to contend, but Flacco is absolutely instrumental to our future. This showed in the offensive gameplan against Cincinatti, where the Ravens ran 46 times. That said, the Ravens offense should look eerily familiar, as Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron was the former mentor of the Browns OC Rob Chudzinski, including the unbalanced offensive line. With former Bengals T Willie Anderson scheduled to play Sunday, there is some speculation that the Ravens will have sets where a Tackle reports eligible. Most people seem to think it will be RT Adam Terry reporting eligible, but I suspect it might be LT Jared Gaither, who at 6 foot 9, could be a surprising pass catcher, especially in the end zone. In any case, our offensive line is young and athletic. They absolutely dominated the Bengals converting a perfect 6 out of 6 3rd and 1 conversions. While both both of our starting tackles are question marks in pass coverage, we probably have one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL. I noticed people ripping on Rexx for claiming this, but Guards Ben Grubbs and Marshall Yanda are tough players that rarely make make mistakes, and Jason Brown was named as an all-pro by SI last year as a guard (Dr. Z referred to him as a human bowling ball. To me, the Shaun Rogers verses Jason Brown matchup will be one of the most exciting when the Ravens have the ball (I like line grudgematches). In the passing game, we've so far relied on short passes, quick drops, the shotgun formation, no-huddle, and screens. Flacco's largest completion against the Bengals was for 15 yards, although he underthrew a deep pass that had TD written all over it. The key for Cleveland (this is kind of obvious) will be to force Flacco to win the game. If the Ravens can make their gains with runs and screens, they'll keep beating it in all night. Cincinnati controlled the ball for less than 7 minutes in the second half two weeks ago. Obviously our passing game, quarterback (and WRs) are our biggest weakness, but I honestly don't know how weak they are, as they haven't really had many opportunities. TE Todd Heap was terrible against Cincy, but I expect that was just a little rust and a lot of statistical noise, he has had two whole weeks to stew over it.
On Defense: Everyone knows what the Ravens defense is about. And everyone knows who Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are, so I won't go into that. Our Defense was 6th in the NFL in yards allowed last year, but still was a disappointment due to a severely injured secondary. Neither Chris McCallister nor Samari Rolle played 8 games last season, but both will play Monday. In addition, Ed Reed will play despite his injury, although he likely won't be doing much hitting, instead being held back to play center field (which was usually his job last year). Fabian Washington, who the Ravens brought in for CB depth last year, will most likely not be ready to play, as he is still recovering from a neck injury. I believe that Ravens nose tackle Kelly Gregg is one of the (if not THE) most underrated player in the NFL. Although he never has made a pro-bowl, he regularly stops running plays dead cold, often making the tackle himself despite being double teamed. However, he is ruled out on Sunday due to a knee problem. His replacement, Justin Bannan, is not much of a break for Cleveland, as the kid is very strong. Our weak point is definitely our corner backs, but Samari and Chris are quite good, and will play through pain. If I were Cleveland I'd try to play out of 3WR 1TE 1RB sets to attempt to expose our nickel backs, as they are not very good players (Nickelback Fabian Washington is good, but he is doubtful for Sunday). A good 3rd WR would severely expose our lack of depth at corner. That being said, what do the Browns have behind Edwards and Steptoe if Stallworth and JJ don't play? Kellen Winslow is definitely our biggest matchup problem, but SS Dawan Landry is really quite a good player, and the Ravens may employ a linebacker to hit Winslow at the line of scrimmage and then use Landy in coverage. Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan lives and dies by the blitz, and we may well need it verses Clevelands excellent O-line. That being said, I'm a bit disappointed Eric Steinbach may not be playing (This is something I don't understand, why would a player be unable to practice for 3 straight days and then be listed as QST instead of DBT?). I was looking forward to the Steinbach match-up verses Haloti Ngata.
I do believe this team is better than last years team was. Trevor Pryce, Samari Rolle, Chris McCallister, and Todd Heap all being healthy works wonders for the teams performance. In addition, Joe Flacco may be a rookie, but he simply can't perform worse than Steve McNair did the first half of last year. I think this Ravens team has improved at least slightly at the QB, RB, OL, TE, DL, and CB positions due to players coming back from injuries or replacements coming in, or in the case of the Oline, a better coach and some added experience for rookie players. This is not to say that the Ravens will return to 2006 form, but this is a much tougher game for the Browns than it was last year.
6 comments | 0 recs
Marvin Lewis has gone insane!
http://ravens24x7.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26999
I don't have the participation by play for week 2 against the Titans, but in week 1, they asked their 2 defensive tackles to shoulder an astounding burden. Specifically, Domata Peko played 90% of the snaps and John Thornton 87%.
By comparison, last season, Haloti Ngata turned in an iron man season with 75% of snaps for the Ravens (Gregg was 2nd at 67%). Gregg led the '06 Ravens defense at 61%. In 2000 Adams played 63.5% of the snaps and Siragusa 52% (so it's not like Marvin Lewis is not familiar with rotating linemen).
I don't honestly think it matters how bad their backups are, the Bengals will continue to get run over until they rotate more on the defensive line.
5 comments | 0 recs
What you might see from the Baltimore Ravens
This is in no way meant to be a trash-talking post. I just thought on offense you might like to know.
On Offense - Protecting and developing rookie QB Joe Flacco is almost as important as winning the game. This wasn't a year the Ravens planned to contend, but Flacco is absolutely instrumental to our future. This showed in the offensive gameplan against Cincinatti, where the Ravens ran 46 times. Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron likes to use funky formations, such as the unbalanced offensive line (where the RT shifts to the left of the left tackle) to throw defenses off balance. With former Bengals T Willie Anderson scheduled to play Sunday, there is some speculation that the Ravens will have sets where a Tackle reports eligible. Most people seem to think it will be RT Adam Terry reporting eligible, but I suspect it might be LT Jared Gaither, who at 6 foot 9, could be a surprising pass catcher, especially in the end zone. In any case, our offensively is young and athletic. They absolutely dominated the Bengals last Sunday converting a perfect 6 out of 6 3rd and 1 conversions. While both both of our starting tackles are question marks in pass coverage, we probably have one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL. In the passing game, we've so far relied on short passes, quick drops, the shotgun formation, no-huddle, and screens. Flacco's largest completion against the Bengals was for 15 yards, although he underthrew a deep pass that had TD written all over it. The key for Houston (this is kind of obvious) will be to force Flacco to win the game. If the Ravens can make their gains with runs and screens, they'll keep beating it in all night. Cincinnati controlled the ball for less than 7 minutes in the second half on Sunday. Obviously our passing game, quarter back (and WRs) are our biggest weakness, but I honestly don't know how weak they are, as they haven't really had many opportunities. TE Todd Heap was terrible last Sunday, but I expect that was just a little rust and a lot of statistical noise.
On Defense: Everyone knows what the Ravens defense is about. And everyone knows who Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are, so I won't go into that. Our Defense was 6th in the NFL in yards allowed last year, but still was a disappointment due to a severely injured secondary. Neither Chris McCallister nor Samari Rolle played 8 games last season, but both will play Monday. In addition, Ed Reed will play despite his injury, although he likely won't be doing much hitting, instead being held back to play center field (which was usually his job last year). I believe that Ravens nose tackle Kelly Gregg is one of the (if not THE) most underrated player in the NFL. Although he never has made a pro-bowl, he regularly stops running plays dead cold, often making the tackle himself despite being double teamed. However, he is questionable to play on Monday (my guess, however, is that he will play). His replacement, Justin Bannan, is not much of a break for Houston, as the kid is very strong. Our weak point is definitely our corner backs, but Samari and Chris are quite good, and will play through pain. If I were Houston I'd try to play out of 3WR 1TE 1RB sets to attempt to expose our nickel backs, as they are not very good players (Nickelback Fabian Washington is good, but he is doubtful for Sunday). A good 3rd WR would severely expose our lack of depth at corner. Owen Daniels might do the trick, but SS Dawan Landry is really quite a good player, and while Owen may win that matchup, it's not by much. Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan lives and dies by the blitz. Expect heavy pressure on the QB, but if Matt Shaub can stay on his feet and keep his wits he will be able to find open receivers.
I really expect this to be a defensive game determined by who turns the ball over, but the key for Houston in winning the matchup will be to stop the Ravens rushing attack, as otherwise the Ravens will be able to control the ball and the game. On offense, its up to Matt Shaub to be able to air it out against the Ravens secondary. QBs who fare well against us usually are quick with their throws and willing to spread the ball among their receivers.
7 comments | 0 recs
Huff, Walker, Millar, Payton clear waivers
From the Baltimore Sun.
Sherrill also was put on Waivers, but he didn't clear them and no trade was made, so he will be an Oriole through 2008.
The above four will be tradeable through August.
3 months ago
math_geek
23 comments
0 recs
Ravens Sign Lorenzo Neal!
I was secretly hoping this would happen. It's a great move by the Ravens and their offense. Neal can still play and it was a wonder he didn't sign sooner. He's still one of the best FB in the league. For those naysayers who say that FB isn't an important position, let me remind you that a FB who sees play on the field is vastly more important than a WR who doesn't. This is also a great relief for pass protection, as Lorenzo Neal will definitely be an asset on pass plays, which will help our struggling line. It's kind of cool that they are thinking of using LeRon McClain as a running back, he can put a hurt on opposing linebackers.
As soon as Neal was cut, I was hoping he would sign with us because of Cam Cameron. The Ravens just got a little bit better today.
3 comments | 0 recs
Showing 1 - 10 of 17Older
